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50PL interesting spot: AI holding naked nut FD 3-way

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Kulk

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1350 posts
Joined 11/2008

This spot came up twice today, once I had the naked nut FD (this hand) and the other time I had the top set which is much more preferable.

My main concern here is that UTG has the set + CO has a small stack which doesn't give me enough ship it.

PL Omaha $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($56.84)
BB ($65.20)
UTG ($96.69)
UTG+1 ($23.13)
CO ($32.29)
BTN ($49.58)

Dealt to Hero ADiamond 5Heart 4Diamond QHeart

UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $2.25, CO calls $2.25, BTN calls $2.25, Hero calls $2, fold, UTG calls $1.75

FLOP ($11.75) 3Spade 7Diamond TDiamond

Hero checks, UTG bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4, CO raises to $22, BTN folds, Hero folds,

I have $54.59 left on flop, UTG has me covered. CO has $8.04 left after his raise.

Posted 10 months ago

wessie

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4 posts
Joined 05/2009

It is likely that UTG or CO has a set. CO is comitting himself so I put him on two pair or better.
When UTG+1 calls the flop I put him on a draw and if he has a flushdraw, you have less outs to yours.

You can`t count your straightdraw because a six would give 98xx a better straight, so with all this action on flop I would fold this flushdraw which I think probably has maximum 6 clean outs

Posted 10 months ago

sweetjazz3

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1999 posts
Joined 02/2007

If UTG had a set, would he bet 4 into a pot of 11.75?

Posted 10 months ago

Kulk

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1350 posts
Joined 11/2008

Hey sweetjazz, long time no see Smile

If UTG had a set, would he bet 4 into a pot of 11.75?


I don't rule it out. It doesn't make sense for many hands to bet this small. I don't expect many bluff in a 5-way pot. Maybe he has a combo draw with 2 pair where he doesn't have to be afraid of any turn cards.

Posted 10 months ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

Easy easy allin.

Id say this hand is better than top set.

We have lots of outs to nuts and this be awesome if it went all in 3 way. Also great UTG bet $4 (lots of dead money) and that CO only has $32.

Folding this is a huge mistake. If you are folding this flop you are folding way too much.

Posted 10 months ago

Kulk

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1350 posts
Joined 11/2008

Easy easy allin.

Id say this hand is better than top set.


Could you explain why, possibly with calculations?


Id say this hand is better than top set.


board: 3s7dtd
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad5h4dQh 36.31% 779,710 3,821
TT 63.69% 1,368,969 3,821

Posted 10 months ago

AAKKds

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183 posts
Joined 12/2011

I'd fold. I think UTG is most likely to have bottom or middle set with CO having two pair+. A limp UTG usually has a pair in it just trying to see if they hit a set. Given that an UTG limp is not something many good players typically do, you have to include all sets in his range IMO and with CO raising it's most likely that you are facing a set and possibly others are holding your FD outs. IMO, good fold.

Posted 10 months ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

Could you explain why, possibly with calculations?


board: 3s7dtd
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad5h4dQh 36.31% 779,710 3,821
TT 63.69% 1,368,969 3,821



Use a range your against and not against a certain hand.

Id say this hand is better than a set because 3 way you get this is really really good. Id have to really looks at ranges, but I think a blank set vs someone that could potentially go all in with worse draws means you nut draw is really good here.

Posted 10 months ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

I'd fold. I think UTG is most likely to have bottom or middle set with CO having two pair+. A limp UTG usually has a pair in it just trying to see if they hit a set. Given that an UTG limp is not something many good players typically do, you have to include all sets in his range IMO and with CO raising it's most likely that you are facing a set and possibly others are holding your FD outs. IMO, good fold.


Nowhere near a good range..

what about 9865? What about KQJ9dd, KKxxdd, QQxxdd, J986. T7xx, 8654dd

These are hands you arent even taking into consideration. We really need to factor these in as it increase our equity by a huge amount.

Posted 10 months ago

AAKKds

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183 posts
Joined 12/2011

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: TDiamond 7Diamond 3Spade
Ad 4d Qh 5h 36.51% (215,105 wins, 7,925 ties)
456, 689, 5689, 789T, 89J, 89TJ, Kdd 20.57% (118,291 wins, 10,345 ties)
T7, 73, T3, TT, 77, 33 42.92% (254,990 wins, 5,099 ties)

With our stack size we need 56.6% to get it all in OTF against UTG. However, if UTG folds we are easily calling it off here. We don't have any reads or stats about UTG, so my default is to take the lower variance route and fold. Especially because he could have a wrap plus low FD which makes our hand way worse:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: TDiamond 7Diamond 3Spade
Ad 4d Qh 5h 26.81% (152,707 wins, 16,437 ties)
45d6d, 68d9d, 568d9d, 789dTd, 89dJd, 89TdJd 33.32% (189,512 wins, 20,873 ties)
T7, 73, T3, TT, 77, 33 39.87% (236,540 wins, 5,507 ties)

Posted 10 months ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

With our stack size we need 56.6% to get it all in OTF against UTG. However, if UTG folds we are easily calling it off here. We don't have any reads or stats about UTG, so my default is to take the lower variance route and fold. Especially because he could have a wrap plus low FD which makes our hand way worseSmile



Incorrect maths. We will never need more than 50% + equity in any spot so your maths is wrong.

Your ranges need to include both of them having draws not just one.

In the first example 3 way we are super super fist pumping getting it in here with 36%....

Also you need to look at your equity against a decent range HU too. The guy who bet $4 might fold.

Posted 10 months ago

AAKKds

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183 posts
Joined 12/2011

Incorrect maths. We will never need more than 50% + equity in any spot so your maths is wrong.

Your ranges need to include both of them having draws not just one.

In the first example 3 way we are super super fist pumping getting it in here with 36%....

Also you need to look at your equity against a decent range HU too. The guy who bet $4 might fold.



Pot= $41.75, Our Stack= $54.59

To call: 1.897... :1 (Need to call $22 into $41.75) 1/2.897...= 34.5%

To raise all in: .764... :1 (Would raise $54.59 into $41.75) .764.../1.764...= 56.7%

You are correct that UTG may fold, but OP doesn't include any reads or stats, so I can't make that assumption. However, if he does have a combo draw I don't think he's folding. I also think it's safe to assume that since we have the nut FD CO is not just shipping it with a wrap or a low FD. Even if he did, that puts more made hands into UTG's range.

Also, we can't plan on just calling the flop because it's highly likely that someone else will raise behind us. There is no point in calling because of immediate odds when it is very likely more money is going in before we see the turn.

Posted 10 months ago

NoWayFolding

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3807 posts
Joined 03/2008

Dude just think about it.

If we shove all in into a pot with $0 in pot and get called. Its 1:1.
Thats 50% equity.

In any spot we will NEVER need more than 50% equity so you have made a mistake...

Posted 9 months ago

AAKKds

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183 posts
Joined 12/2011

No it's not. 1:1 is like betting $50 into a $50 pot. That's why if you are facing a PSB in PLO you are getting 2:1. $100: $50.

Posted 9 months ago

shuttle

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3333 posts
Joined 11/2008

you are most definitely doing something very wrong, as you never need more than 50% equity.

Posted 9 months ago




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