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AA v. presumed AA

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Dutch45

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98 posts
Joined 03/2010

Hey everyone,

When BB 3 bets I'm about 99% sure it's AA. Even though it's a small sample, thus far every 3 bet I've seen from him has been AA. Against random AA we're a slight dog. Given that, does anyone ever just flat the 3 bet when it folds back around to us with the thought of representing boards that look bad for AA to move him off of a chop? Do we even have enough maneuverability to do so since the SPR will be less than 2.5 on the flop if we just call? Or, do you go ahead and just put in the back raise in the chance he ever shows up without AA?



Merge $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players

Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $70.66 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 6, 3B: 2, AF: 1.7, Hands: 242
UTG: $41.15
MP: $31.22
CO: $32.97 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 8, 3B: 7, AF: 2.2, Hands: 278
BTN: $36.35 - VPIP: 49, PFR: 25, 3B: 4, AF: 0.8, Hands: 75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with K Diamond 8 Diamond A Club A Diamond
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $1.89, Hero calls $1.64, BB raises to $8.06, 2 folds

Posted about 1 year ago

PeteH

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330 posts
Joined 04/2008

I'd just get it in.

With 2½ SPR and being OOP I wouldn't counting on outplaying the villain.

Posted about 1 year ago

Teahupoo

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1254 posts
Joined 07/2009

Yeah, I agree with Pete's points and would jam as well. You also never know if villain just saw a training video or something and had a revelation that there are advantages of 3-betting hands other than AA**, especially against a laggy iso-raise. Unlikely with the read but still possible.

Posted about 1 year ago

Osterror

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116 posts
Joined 11/2011

Idea is interesting, though.

Reminds me of just calling with the nuts sometimes if it's very likely your nit villan has it, too, for example with straight no redraws, and then scooping the pot if a scare card hits.

All spades or all hearts flop would be pretty disgusting for us though.
All diamonds is nice but we dont want him to fold now.
All clubs is nice, too.

J9T with a heart draw. Are we getting away from it ourselves which is pretty sick?

Yeah, the idea is theoretically interesting, but I think we will make many mistakes ourselves, too. here.

Posted about 1 year ago

shuttle

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3334 posts
Joined 11/2008

I think flatting has a lot more merits if we are in position

Posted about 1 year ago

snarble5

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1685 posts
Joined 07/2010

3 bet pre and as played easy back raise/jam any flop. Even though he is loose passive he can easily have strong rundowns, strong KK hands (ds, KKQJ, etc). The ev you gain from getting more money in pre (and the rest in otf) is considerably greater than what you lose as a slight dog when he has AA (which is less likely combo-wise given you have 2 aces).

Edit: I also think flatting pre is a mistake given his short stack and his presumably wide range since he's isoing a co limp on the button and his stats seems pretty splashy/active.

Posted about 1 year ago

euEra

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682 posts
Joined 08/2010

So you assessed that he has KK 1% of the time and normally just flats with KK? Please my i borrow your soul reading software.

On the flop with such a low spr we are pretty much in autostack off mode so a worse player definately would. I would get it in pre. Just because you have seen him showdown AA when he has 3 bet doesnt mean he never had AKs in the BB and he would have 3 bet but it got folded around etc. People stack off too light in general and trying to get AA in pre will never be a -EV play, maybe you can get a stack from a worse hand that would have never stacked off pre but when you flat and he flops a set or 2 pair could you really fold? take a nice 3 bet pot down pre is never a bad result.

Posted about 1 year ago

PeteH

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330 posts
Joined 04/2008

All spades or all hearts flop would be pretty disgusting for us though.
All diamonds is nice but we dont want him to fold now.
All clubs is nice, too.

J9T with a heart draw. Are we getting away from it ourselves which is pretty sick?

Yeah, the idea is theoretically interesting, but I think we will make many mistakes ourselves, too. here.


Yeah, I think that's the most important reason not to flat. Being OOP we are much more likely to make a big mistake postflop than villain.

Posted 12 months ago

Dutch45

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98 posts
Joined 03/2010

So you assessed that he has KK 1% of the time and normally just flats with KK? Please my i borrow your soul reading software.

Sorry, it's proprietary. For a nominal fee, however....

In all seriousness I should have perhaps backed off of the hyperbole in the initial post but between the lack of 3 bet hands, those that were AA, the other strong hands that I've seen flatted and the fact that up until this point his MO hasn't been to shovel money in aggressively with small edges, I felt we were just flipping for stacks with us getting the bad end a great deal and wondered if there were any alternatives to explore.

I should also clarify that postflop I wouldn't have really considered folding. My thought was I would simply reserve those chips for postflop and make him squirm on a lot of flops when he still needs 41% to get in stacks. The scarier the flop looks for me is probably good because it's going to look equally scary for villain's AA most often. Obviously we stand to look silly the times villain's sidecards hit the flop or he has something other than AA, but we would have lost those hands if we stacked preflop anyway.

What I didn't realize or had just forgotten, however, was how often one of us will actually win the pot with our AA v. AA, which PPT has at 39%, and our hand winning 16% of those. If we get villain to fold most of those times on the flop when we would have stacked him, that's additional equity we're losing and have to make up with him folding on the flop vs. what he perceives our range to be. I haven't really done any math but I doubt we induce enough folds and it looks like everyone else thinks so too. Thanks everyone.

Posted 12 months ago

euEra

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682 posts
Joined 08/2010

But what about the times he has air pre flop and hits 2 pair+ on the flop when previously he would have folded pre flop and you would have scooped in an ok sized pot rather than losing a stack.

Posted 12 months ago

Teahupoo

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1254 posts
Joined 07/2009

But what about the times he has air pre flop and hits 2 pair+ on the flop when previously he would have folded pre flop and you would have scooped in an ok sized pot rather than losing a stack.



Not to derail but this reply sounds very NLHE and doesn't really make sense. Firstly, villain never has air here and is never folding if we 4-bet. 'Air' basically doesn't exist in preflop PLO, especially not with him.

Posted 12 months ago

euEra

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682 posts
Joined 08/2010

Not to derail but this reply sounds very NLHE and doesn't really make sense. Firstly, villain never has air here and is never folding if we 4-bet. 'Air' basically doesn't exist in preflop PLO, especially not with him.


Oops i had absolutely no idea this was omaha lmao!

Posted 12 months ago




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