Merge $10.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 4 players - View hand 1757664
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $10.69
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A A 7 9
1 fold, BTN raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.15, BB calls $1.05, BTN calls $0.80
Flop: ($3.45) 6 2 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.58, BB calls $2.58, BTN raises to $13.77, Hero folds
AI player is a 26/16 w/ 26% AFQ over 350 hands, folds to 3bet 50% over 8 samples. Player who calls vs my flop cb is 43/1 over 200 hands.
I folded because I felt like on this flop our likely-competent opponent is going to have enough sets to really hurt my hand. The recreational player's presence equity-wise in the pot isn't negligible, but I felt his call on the flop meant that I at least am 40/60 vs him if we were HU, so I'm happy that he's there, basically. But when the TAG goes AI, given the recreational player's SPR is so small and thus isn't as huge a factor as it could be in offering me odds to call, I really felt it was a sick spot. Being a holdem convert, I have a tendency to just wanna fold in these scenarios when I'm facing action from what looks like a reasonable player.
I don't really have a read on this TAG, which typically means that I haven't spotted him doing anything silly. The fact that he might have just TP really isn't any consolation to me when I'm thinking about his preflop range, which will include a lot of connected content, making the weaker single-pair portion of his made hand range still quite threating, despite the fact that I have his trips blocked. The main thing here is, this guy has a lot of sets. Just how many, I'm not sure, but I made an attempt at constructing his flop range.
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
AsAh7s9h 25.76% (151,818 wins, 5,532 ties)
66RR!AA, 66[3-5][3-5]x, 66[4-7][4-7]!6x, 66[7-9][7-9]x, 22RR!AA, 22[A-5][A-5]x!AA, 99RR!AA, 99[6-8][6-8]x, 99[7-T][7-T]!9x, 99[8-J][8-J]!9x, 99[T-Q][T-Q]x, 3456x, 5678x , 789T, 689Tx, 79TJx, 9JQKx, 89TAx, K89Tx, Q89Tx, 89TJ 53.69% (318,731 wins, 6,933 ties)
TT-KK, 6, 9, 78, 345 20.55% (119,398 wins, 7,855 ties)
I need 26% equity to call vs his AI, assuming the rec player calls (he must and will do so 99% of the time).
Basically, my instinct is to imagine that the presence of the recreational player is good for calling because it gives me odds on the flop. However I am also assuming that the rec player's preflop call tightens the TAG's preflop range a bit. Postflop, I am imagining he might possibly play a bare 6 or 2 with just side cards (like an QKT6ds-type hand) on this flop aggressively vs me, given that he should expect me to sometimes be the type of player to fold an AA hand on this flop, and/or maybe because when I cbet I'm missing this flop some with my wider preflop 3betting range. On the other hand, with a player cold-calling in the BB, I wonder if he even has much in his preflop/flop range that would give him a single 6 or 2 without StrD's to go along with it on this flop, and I don't know if he'd prefer to call with a bare 6 and see if he improves, or just sort of go with the hand 3way (which I don't think is too bad of an idea here, is it?).
I really need someone who's both experienced with Omaha players and with ProPokerTools to help me make sure I've got his flop ranges correct. As of now I have that I should fold this flop, even though it's close, because rake is going to take away my thin profit (assuming that it exists here). Also note that the rec players flop range is mostly non-dominant hands, which I think 95% of the time is correct; however he is passive and probably not thinking reasonably all the time and may flat here thinking he should slowplay or something.