churbruv
244 posts
Joined 10/2009
PrinzVonHapunkt
1198 posts
Joined 12/2010
I'd fold pre, multiway oop this hand is kinda crappy, the only time I'd be playing this is ip 3betting a guy that likes to fold to cbets because our hand has almost no nut components, even the straight can be outdrawn and our FDs are probably not worth much 3way (noone will fold to our bets 3way but call with draws that dominate us so we got less equity than we think)
Posted about 1 year ago
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envoy222
35 posts
Joined 05/2012
Fold pre cause you're out of position it'll be pretty hard to play 3 ways.
As it played out you've to fold, your hand looks deceptively pretty. When you get it in here your fd is almost always dominated in which you're f**ked.
Posted about 1 year ago
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delcrossb
4237 posts
Joined 04/2009
Fold pre cause you're out of position it'll be pretty hard to play 3 ways.
As it played out you've to fold, your hand looks deceptively pretty. When you get it in here your fd is almost always dominated in which you're f**ked.
UTG doesn't really hit this board that often and is just cbetting.
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 2
5
9
467s8s 23.00% (112,717 wins, 50,581 ties)
9978 50.17% (275,746 wins, 50,581 ties)
AsKsK* 26.83% (160,956 wins, 0 ties)
Even worst case scenario we are doing pretty well. The UTG range is probably weaker and will often fold. CO can have a wideish range to raise here and even against an NFD you aren't in bad shape.
You are far from f'd, I guess is my point.
Posted about 1 year ago
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envoy222
35 posts
Joined 05/2012
UTG doesn't really hit this board that often and is just cbetting.
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 2
5
9
467s8s 23.00% (112,717 wins, 50,581 ties)
9978 50.17% (275,746 wins, 50,581 ties)
AsKsK* 26.83% (160,956 wins, 0 ties)
Even worst case scenario we are doing pretty well. The UTG range is probably weaker and will often fold. CO can have a wideish range to raise here and even against an NFD you aren't in bad shape.
You are far from f'd, I guess is my point.
23% isn't good imo.
If we get it heads up vs a pair+higher fd we're 38% But we're like 45% sets. So I guess it's a case of weighting ranges?
I could be slightly biased cause I've had bad experiences getting it in these spots!
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 2
5
9
6h8s7s4d 38.66% (317 wins, 0 ties)
AsKsAdTh 61.34% (503 wins, 0 ties)
Posted about 1 year ago
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delcrossb
4237 posts
Joined 04/2009
My point is more that this would the absolute worst possible case scenario where we are against a set, a FD, and some of our outs chop. Just having our FD dominated isn't the end of the world when we have the huge wrap.
Posted about 1 year ago
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churbruv
244 posts
Joined 10/2009
My point is more that this would the absolute worst possible case scenario where we are against a set, a FD, and some of our outs chop. Just having our FD dominated isn't the end of the world when we have the huge wrap.
Just to clarify, what do you do on this flop?
Posted about 1 year ago
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delcrossb
4237 posts
Joined 04/2009
Given that the UTG is probably cbetting a lot of missed hands because the board is innocuous, and the CO's raise is just over a minraise, I would go ahead and raise as planned.
In my experience a lot of these small minraises are more likely to be a made hand (ie a set) rather than a draw, which people will just pot raise with. Getting it in OOP against a set is no problem, and I also think there is a non-zero chance we can just get two folds right away.
Posted about 1 year ago
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TPTP
157 posts
Joined 01/2009
Flat and re-evaluate on Turn imo, it may be unorthodox but that's my opinion... moreso becuase is 3handed and we're oop to both players.
When a spade flips on the turn we can easily b/f fold and rep a nut flush. And any non-spade lower then a J is great for us... with the marginal exception of a 4...(which i would still barrel to get to showdown on river) this could be deemed as FPS which may be a fair observation however I quite like this spot very much so.
But you need to create a plan in your mind quickly mid hand and stick to it.
Posted about 1 year ago
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Osterror
116 posts
Joined 11/2011