Uhhh, I don't agree with shipping it OTF. This type of player almost always has a better made hand than us OTF. MAYBE, he could have top two, but I doubt it. In my experience, these players usually have at least a better set, if not a straight.
I could see R/F to a 3Bet, but I still don't like that as much as the other two options.
Firstly, I just wanna say, that if folding here to limps preflop is the best play, then I really need someone to explain why in a more detailed fashion. I'm starting to notice that rec players really don't fight over limped pots much (it's like it's too small of a pot for them to care or something), and I feel like I can flop a lot of little pieces of draws here with this hand, and thus can use this hand to take some pots down on flops and turns (occasionally rivers) vs these guys.
You're right in that they don't fight over limped pots that much, but this hand still gets you into a bad situation. This hand plays much better IMO, if you raise preflop. Then you can CBet and if you get X/R you can probably fold because he has better made hand. If you raise you can isolate, and even if it gets multiway you have the initiative and people will give your actions more respect. I think you should fold this hand if you don't think you can play it well. I actually take back what I said earlier about folding this hand. I would probably play it, but I would raise.
To be fair, snarble5 never said anything about villian's x/f range, but he did say that villian would check non-brick turns w/ just a straight.
Which means if we bet he would most likely fold.
I could be convinced here to call and play turns, however, my knowledge of how recreational players are acting with various parts of their range is pretty bad, and that's why i ended up folding here. I'm pretty frequently surprised by how loosely they play both as the aggressor and once they've ceded initiative. If I were a much better player I could see how calling might be better than folding.
It's not a matter of being "better", but just that you play with some foresight and some discipline. You don't want to go crazy with bottom set on a 2 tone, straight board. If you do decide to call then you just have to make logically based decisions. You don't want to call down just because you could hit a boat or a flush and beat his possible straight.
One other thing I do want to mention is that, w/ 35% equity vs. the range that you assign him on a brick-ish turn card, a turn call would be marginal at best against another large bet since we'll be very likely to face a bet on the river at that point. I think that's kinda along the lines of what LSGoCards7 is saying about a flop call.
Yes, that is what I meant. A turn call would be very thin and you could be dominated! That's this thread's buzz word.
Hence we can't just look at even a seemingly non-threatening 3:1 pot odds scenario on a brick turn and imagine that we have a clear call, given that his flop sizing pretty clearly defines how he plans to represent his strength already. Sometimes we'll hit the flush on the river, and our opponent will keep betting. Sometimes we'll boat up, and opponent will bet 2/3-pot or more. And very rarely, the river will brick, and our opponent will bet his wiffed wrap again, and we'll fold the best hand.
If he pots it on the turn you're getting 2:1 odds, same as OTF.
I'd just feel way more comfortable calling flop if I had a good read on the guy, or at least if I was really familiar with the part of the player population that his profile fits into (a 62/15 pure recreational player), as you two clearly seem to be. Anyway that's why I posted the hand, I just really didn't know what to do, but at least now I feel like the next time I'm in this spot I know what specific containers to fill as far as the information I might need to continue on to the turn. As played, I think this villain is sitting on a very strong part of his made-hand range, and until I've got at least a few more weeks' of exclusive PLO full-time grinding under my belt, I'll avoid calling here vs. such a large bet.
Your read is that he is passive and doesn't fight after limped pots all that much. That greatly strengthens his range which makes you're hand easier to play. IMO it's a fold. Against these type of players it really helps to just bluff less, value bet more and bigger, and give them respect when they get aggressive. Sometimes they'll show up with the top of their range after calling you down, but there's nothing you can do about that.
Really appreciate your input guys, and anything else you have to say here.
Thanks! No problem.
Shipping flop. Getting it in vs either one or two stack off ranges is going to be +EV, and there is FE too.
I don't think we really have all that much FE OTF. He is not going to pot this wet board without a strong hand or draw. If we had JJ** or even TT** I would consider it because a lot of these type of players will overvalue bottom set.
Then treat it against a stack off range. The concept of "better made hand" doesn't matter as long as our equity is positive. We are a big enough favourite against 98xx even taking into account times our flush draw is dead, times we run into a set and times we run into some sort of uber monster.
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
12,118,780 trials (Exhaustive)
6s7s7h8h 51.87% (6,087,464 wins, 397,611 ties)
89,JJ,TT,89ss,JJss,TTss 48.13% (5,633,705 wins, 397,611 ties)
I don't know if I did that right, but if so, we could stack off OTF. I underestimated our equity against that range.
Okay, wow, really nice thread guys. I think I will just get it in next time.
What I was saying earlier, LSGoCards7 (not that it's relevant at this point in the discussion), w/ the 3:1 pot odds on the turn, is that even if he bets 1/2-pot on a brick turn, our turn call is close to marginal with only 35% equity since we can't expect him to stop betting the river after potting the flop 4way.