Pot Limit Omaha Poker Forums

Hey everyone,
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($95)
BB ($230)
UTG ($380)
CO ($78.87)
Hero ($110)

Dealt to Hero J J 9 T

fold, CO raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $12, fold, fold, CO calls $8.50

FLOP ($25.50) 8 K Q

CO bets $25.50, Hero?

I 3bet a 79/25 player in 63hand sample. His AFq is 28%, AF Flop 2.1. He donkbets 23% (13) samples.

I saw him donking before in a multiway pot where he only bet half pot with a strong holding on a t 8 2 flop with FD+GS+Pair

The blinds are taggy so I want to 3bet to be heads up

Now CO donks into me and it was quite hard to assess his range here. I do think it is leaning towards a stronger side of his hand spectrum so that would lean me to fold or call. Against just twopair and/or sets I am doing fine (38-50%) but against flushdraws + pairs I am doing horribly (29%)

What is your line here?

It's probably close and I might just be nitty, but I fold here as we're drawing to a lot of 2nd best hands and so I would prefer to raise more than call; however, we need 40% to get it in and I doubt we have that on average against whatever hands he donk pots. Also, if we call the flop we're going to have to call most turns needing less than 25% anyway and I wouldn't want to risk making a mistake when the board pairs or the flush comes and we incorrectly fold.

I think folding is the only clearly incorrect play.

My first instinct was to fold but I think it's a shove.

board: Kd8dQs
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Jc9cJsTs 44.20% 259,753 10,902
KQ, K8, Q8, 88, KK, QQ, dd, AJT, JT9, K:29%!AA 55.80% 329,345 10,902

Obviously not perfect, but close enough and it's hard to find a range we don't have ~40% equity with.

I think folding is the only clearly incorrect play.

Because we fold so much equity in average thus you assess his range more to be twopairish?

Because we fold so much equity in average thus you assess his range more to be twopairish?

Because almost any conceivable range we have too much equity to fold, and the fear of making mistakes on further decisions or getting it in bad some of the time is no excuse for giving money away.

With this SPR it's always going to be a fold or a shove, for reasons SchFerreira pointed out - we do not want to leave money behind to fold on the turn.

It seems pretty close. A lot of simulations end I've done end up with us having ~40% on the flop and we need less, so go with it.

I think we can assume we have no fold equity, so effectively calling $66 to win $156 means we need 42%. Simulations I do have us around 38%. I think it's a close fold. If his PFR was more liek 40-50% I'd lean more towards getting it in, but a 25% range does hit this board fairly well and the flush draw weakens our non-nut wrap. The 8 being the off-suit card instead of the Queen would also boost our equity a bit by taking away more Qd*d from his range. It's not like getting it in is that bad though. Just remember to run good.