N0whereman covers more preflop and flop concepts from a numbers perspective.
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You state average equity=26.95/63 for the akqjds hand. Is the 63 here correct or incorrectly copied from the previous example? In propokertools, the 32% treshold is met by 50% of the flops and not the 63%as in the midrundown hand. Therefor average equity should be 26.95/50. Do i make a mistake here?
According to PPT:
Equity of 32% for AKQJds = 53.8%
Avg equity on those flops: 57.7%
27.8-24.5=3.3 (so minus EV by a lot at PL25 due to rake, but +.8$ at PL100).
EDIT: So apparently I set it to "5 card omaha" - good job me
So instead we have .489*(201.5*.531-64.5) = 20.78~ for a 3.7~ bb loss
I'm a little late to the game, but:
I'm not sure the calculation for the AKQJds is correct.
This is the graph I get for AKQJds vs AA, you can verify that this is the same thing you get.
This is my attempt at visualising the percentages for when we have 32-40% equity, 40-50% eq. etc.
We should be calling on 52% of flops and the sum of the percentages is 52%, so it seems like this is correct.
32-40%: Average equity 36%, percentage of flops 14.5% -> Total Area: 5.22%
40-50%: Average equity 45%, percentage of flops 13.5% -> Total Area: 6.08%
50-60%: Average equity 55%, percentage of flops 9% -> Total Area: 4.95%
60-70%: Average equity 65%, percentage of flops 5% -> Total Area: 3.25%
70-80%: Average equity 75%, percentage of flops 3% -> Total Area: 2.25%
80-90%: Average equity 85%, percentage of flops 2% -> Total Area: 1.7%
90-100%: Average equity 95%, percentage of flops 5% -> Total Area: 4.75%
Total Area: 28.2%
(These results are pretty similar to what you had, but I couldn't see what numbers you were working with and I had already written this up, so I decided to post this anyway).
Skip to here, the above is unnecessary
But the error is dividing by 63% of flops, when we should be dividing by between 48% and 52% of flops (based on where you estimate the 32% line to be). You actually noticed that the 63% was wrong but forgot to adjust our equity when we call based on that. I'll use my 52% number since my calculations are based on that.
Our average equity when called is 28.2%/52%=54,2%
The calculation would thus be
Call preflop and fold: -24.5bb*48% = -11.76bb
Call flop and lose: -89bb*52%*45.8% = -21.20bb
Call flop and win: 112bb*52%*54.2% = +31,56bb
So the overall EV would be -1.4bb based on those numbers.
EDIT: Aaaand I just saw others pointed it out already. Oh well.
EDIT2: Good series though!