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Normally I bet the turn but I got a little fancy and tried to get him to bluff his floats. As played, call river? Analysis appreciated, it's obviously very hard for him to have AA or 22 here but wouldn't he just call if he thought I were bluffing? He can't expect me to fold a big hand.

Full Tilt Poker $25/$50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $10 Ante - 5 players - View hand 132329
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $17740.00
Hero (SB): $9238.00
BB: $2725.00
UTG: $9683.00
CO: $10736.00

Pre Flop: ($125.00) Hero is SB with K 9 7 K
2 folds, BTN raises to $200, Hero raises to $700, 1 fold, BTN calls $500

Flop: ($1500.00) K A 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1050, BTN calls $1050

Turn: ($3600.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($3600.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $3100, BTN requests TIME, BTN raises to $12900

Final Pot: $9800.00

i think you should have called his river raise. you already invested $4850, you have 4388 left in your stack. with his raise the pot is now 1108 and it will be 4388 to cal so your getting like 2.5 to 1 on your money.
I need to know what his opening hand range preflop of 4bb has been so far, before i give you my take on the hand.

Would he ever valuecut himself here? A2xx maybe?

how wide have you been 3b OOP?

It seems like a spot where sometimes the hands he would bluff catch with might lose to your "bluffs" and by raising he would take you off some of your weaker made hands going for thin value. I don't think I'm ever folding here. Also would he ever pay off the extra bit with an underfull if you shoved?

To answer papifeo, I haven't be watching any of the new ante tables but I assume that a pot 4bb open is the standard open these days since the games are still uncapped and that players are not opening 3/3.5 with some hands and 4 with others. Correct me if I am wrong.

I think phil is trying to represent he has the fullhouse with AA. Only way he can get you of this hand is to fire a big shell on the end here. I think he has a hand like Ah Qh J T.

A few things:

1) How often do you think Phil's floating the flop? If I'm continuing with air on this board it's with a raise far more often than a float, especially since I'd expect you to double barrel a lot. I guess I'm trying to say that I tend to not pick this board to take your turn line, but you probably have a better idea of how he plays.

2) His turn check is pretty interesting. Would you expect him to ever check the turn with a complete float? I'd guess quite a bit of his turn range is stuff that picked up enough outs to continue but doesn't want to b/f (or b/c). That and some value stuff too, but I think he's weighted away from air.

3) Would Phil think you're capable of calling the river with AKxx ever? This goes along with kolo's point that Phil could easily be value cutting himself with a2/some weird 44. In the same vein, what's the worst hand you'd vbet here? I feel like your b/f range on the river is probably wide enough for him to get you off of stuff. Unless he has like Axxx (and even then he might try it to get you off of akxx) I don't think he just flat calls too often, since your bluffs could beat his bluffs.

4) In the end I'd probably say hand at the top of your range + Phil knows you're super aggro + he can definitely do this with something like qjtx/axxx + you being beat requires him to take a super tricky/weird line = call. I'm sure the leveling game plays a role here too, but from here I can't really see folding.

eta: how often is Phil 4-betting you with AAxx? If you're super LAG I'd imagine his 4-betting frequency, even 200bb deep, is going to discount his AAxx range considerably.

how wide have you been 3b OOP?

I'd imagine the answer is "super wide", but I could be wrong.

Hmm, thats a tough spot. That deep with that stack/pot ratio on the flop, I'd expect Phil to play his weaker AAxx like this at least some of the time.

No other hands really make sense for him to have there imho, so while he can't expect you to fold big hands there, he also wouldn't expect you play AA/KK like that on the turn, and you have a hard time having/calling with other stuff. So how much chicken will he play in his bluffing frequencies here?

I dunno, thinking the hand thru it seems like he really should have AAxx a lot here, but i don't really see me laying this down. I prob call thinking "i'm getting coolered here"

Hmm, thats a tough spot. That deep with that stack/pot ratio on the flop, I'd expect Phil to play his weaker AAxx like this at least some of the time.

What exactly about this SPR (~6) makes him more likely to play AAxx this way? I would think that SPR would make him more likely to play draws/made hands fast, as Jay's possible turn bet (SPR = 2.1) is committing. Phil doesn't have a great way of semibluffing Jay if he calls the flop.

eta: I can see in a vacuum why Phil would play the flop this way with aaxx he didn't want to 4-bet. Just trying to understand SPR considerations.

I think I always call here for a couple of reasons. I don't know much about Phil's game, but I do know this is a much smaller game than he's used to, so maybe he'd be more inclined to get slightly more out of line than he normally does. Furthermore, as has been said already, I think Phil almost always 4 bets AAxx PF, unless they are very bad AAxx which I guess is a possibility, but is a very small part of his range, particularly since he's opening on the BTN. And since this is a smaller game than he's used to, he could be raising you with his missed draws on the river since your line doesn't look very strong, and he has no SD value. In the end, it seemed like you got the intended result from your "fanciness", ultimately inducing a river bluff. You said that he can't expect you to fold a big hand, but your line doesn't look like a big hand, so Phil could easily assume that unless you have K's or A's full, you basically have to fold out everything else, which you don't have very often from his perspective because you didn't bet the turn like you normally would.

Krantz, what's Phil's perception of your 3 betting range out of the blinds?

I think I always call here for a couple of reasons. I don't know much about Phil's game, but I do know this is a much smaller game than he's used to, so maybe he'd be more inclined to get slightly more out of line than he normally does. Furthermore, as has been said already, I think Phil almost always 4 bets AAxx PF, unless they are very bad AAxx which I guess is a possibility, but is a very small part of his range, particularly since he's opening on the BTN. And since this is a smaller game than he's used to, he could be raising you with his missed draws on the river since your line doesn't look very strong, and he has no SD value. In the end, it seemed like you got the intended result from your "fanciness", ultimately inducing a river bluff.

Krantz, what's Phil's perception of your 3 betting range out of the blinds?

i dont think bc its small phil is just gonna bluff all the time especially after a 2Mish downswing

What exactly about this SPR (~6) makes him more likely to play AAxx this way?

To clarify, Phil's preflop decision with AAxx will be influenced by what the SPR is on the flop. Here, potting is preflop leaves an SPR of 1.3 or something which is awkward for AAxx.

Separately, Phil is very big on balancing his game, so if he flats with a range of hands there preflop, he needs to balance this by sometimes including AAxx in his preflop flatting range.

Not a high-stakes player but seems unlikely Phil checks the turn with top set with two straight draws on the board. You have a big hand, call.

This is one tough hand. I was not thinking so much about SPR, but more about his hand range, which I break into 3 parts.

1. pair A + gutshot on flop that cold called your cbet & checked turn hoping to spike on river. His smooth call on flop also makes more sense if he had a double suited hand & had 2 backdoor flush draws. This would also be consistent w/ the turn check if he picked up a strong flush draw on turn.

2. AAxx that cold called in position because he knew you would cbet the flop & that would allow him to get stacks in if you bet into him on the turn or river.

3. Phil could cold call your 3b w/ a double paired hand that includes 44 (22 = much less likely) and be valuebetting the river.

And I don't know how you play PLO, KRANTZ. But if you play on pr1nnyraid, then I would assume it's pretty aggro, especially at these stakes so Phil's check on the turn means that you will bet the river a very hi % of the time. Phil is repping such a tight range (option #2 above), that I think the real question is if he could turn a one pair hand (option #1) into a bluff on the river.

Is this hand one of the he thinks that I think that he thinks hands? Because if Phil thinks that you will bet the river as a bluff w/ a large part of your range, then Phil could be raising both as a bluff and for thin value.

Given the # of combos in option #1, then this is a clear call. Counterbalance that against how good a player Phil is (i.e., he is more than capable of raising the river w/ hand ranging from the nutz to nothing), then it becomes much closer.

Your hand is presented to us in a vaccuum so we don't know much about table dynamics, how you are playing, and the recent history between you and Phil. But if: (1) he's playing far below his bankroll; (2) you are getting pretty good pot odds; and (3) Phils is capable of turning his hand into a bluff (or valuebetting worse w/ 44 vs a super-aggro player), then I think you need to make a crying call.

To clarify, Phil's preflop decision with AAxx will be influenced by what the SPR is on the flop. Here, potting is preflop leaves an SPR of 1.3 or something which is awkward for AAxx.

Separately, Phil is very big on balancing his game, so if he flats with a range of hands there preflop, he needs to balance this by sometimes including AAxx in his preflop flatting range.

gergery, if he balances in this spot, is that an argument to call (includes more bluffs in his range) or an argument to fold (this is AAxx better than 50% of the time)? plus this is button vs blind so wouldn't that widen his calling range preflop in position and increase his bluffing frequency on the river?

tx, s/s.