Hi DJ, Kasino + PLO Buccaneers I just have a question regarding the first hand in the video.
Skip to about 3:25
We have 6 5 9 7
On the turn Dj advocated checking back on the K 6 8 8 board due to the possibility our opponent could C/R us with a carefully played set.
1.I was wondering if this is something we should probably only fear from good players or if this is more often then not the correct play vs an unknown in this specific situation?
I myself would often bet this turn not expecting to get C/R though if I am I would feel I could very comfortably fold. I would of thought we should be using our position here to use these bluff/semi-bluff plays to get our opponent to fold better heart draws, straight draws and other combo draw type hands like QQT9 2 hearts especially since we have no SD value and by betting the turn the pot is getting big and there is the threat of us also betting the river which I would of thought would make a decent opponent fold all hands not holding at the very least an 8.
(I was thinking maybe he wouldn't fold a massive combo draw but I think a hand like AKT7 2 hearts (suited to the A) is most often shoving the flop so we can probably only expect marginal combo draw hands, right?).
2.Would you advise the same thing in this situation vs an 10c/20c unknown?
3.Lastly if you were in the OOP BB opponents position and held a hand like 789T no hearts and had made it to the turn what would you advise doing if WallyWattz1, who's IP, bets the turn for around $56?
I'd be happy to hear absolutely anyones thoughts on these questions. Thanks.
Hey aaahshoveit, great questions. I'll do my best to answer your questions.
1. Your turn analysis is dead on, and I think you covered all of the main points for why betting the turn is the most profitable play, most important being that we often get better hands to fold, and we don't have any SD value anyway.
I think most bad players and unknowns will be much more likely to c/r the flop with a set in comparison to good players. Good players understand that a set on a board like this plays more like a drawing hand than a made hand, particularly OOP. It's always important to have a grasp of what your opponent is capable of, but in general, I think this is a b/f regardless of what type of opponent you're up against.
2. Yes, definitely. At the .1/.2 level, their calling ranges on the flop will be much wider, which means they'll have many more random combinations of Kxxx, hhxx, SD's, and random garbage. Although this may seem to increase the likelihood that they would show up with an 8 sometimes, it's good for us because they're putting more dead money in on the flop for us to bluff them off of later. Even very bad players will c/f this turn if their draws don't improve. The main idea that makes this bet profitable is the fact that basically only the very top of their range is capable of continuing on this turn (trips, full houses, NFD sometimes), but the rest of their range basically has to fold. Regardless of what stakes you're playing, you still don't have showdown value, and they still fold better many times so the amount of money being wagered doesn't matter in this instance.
3. Interesting question, and I don't think there's one prefect answer because it first needs to be approached by having a read on what your opponents tendencies are. If I'm the BB, I have to believe that Wally isn't c-betting light on a board like that into three other people, so you know his flop betting range is sure to be strong. I think the majority of his flop range will be something like he had in the video, pair and NFD, Aces w/NFD, KKxx, and very rarely 66xx. Against this range of likely holdings, you're either way ahead or way behind (drawing almost dead against KKxx, 23% equity against 66xx, 77% against Ahxhxx), That being said, you need to figure what the best way is to get max value out of your hand on a board like that. If I know he's aggressive, and likely to bet his air and draws on the turn, I'll c/r him for value on the turn. If he's passive, I'd probably bet 70% pot on the turn and riv for value from AAxx and NFD.
Hopefully this helps? Let me know if it does, or if you want me to clear something up for you.