Pot Limit Omaha Poker Forums

Hey Guys -

I've sent this hand to a few different people and gotten some interesting answers, so I thought it'd be good to post it on here and see what y'all think.

Villain seems TAG'y so far, although it's only 25 hands and he's 31/18 so far. No other reads.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 714119
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $401.40
BB: $477.70
UTG: $885.60
MP: $372.20
CO: $376.60
Hero (BTN): $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with T J 3 9
3 folds, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, BB calls $8

Flop: ($26.00) 8 4 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $86, Hero requests TIME

Final Pot: $66.00



My read at the time was that he's probably only c/r'ing me here with draws that beat me or 56**, with his range being weighted more heavily towards draws that beat me since given the SPR I'd expect him to flat 56** a reasonable amount of the time. I think he'd be more likely to peel a naked set as well, but I could be wrong. What's our best line? Auto ship the flop? Peel and fold if he continues to bet a diamond turn? Peel and rep a boat if the board pairs? Thoughts are appreciated. Thanks!

JB

I don't really have much PLO experience but I'm going to pitch my thoughts anyways.

1. If he has 56**, you're a 60/40 favorite.
2. If he has 88**, it's a coin flip.
3. If he has nut flush draw with a pair (i.e. AK8* or AKK*) he's a 65/35 favorite.

I probably peel and give up (if we don't complete a straight). Also folding if the flush comes and he bets.

Does he ever do this as a bluff or raise/fold any weaker draws?

Been thinking about this hand for a couple of days now. I will agree that a taggy player will not likely x/r with bare 56 and more likely with a bare set. This is a very draw board and when you continue he's going to hate a ton of turns with those bare hands and 1.5 PSB left. I don't think he's going to be x/r with bare NFD or overpairs + NFD though, because you just *might* have 56 and he won't be doing great against that.

So more likely than not I would x/r strong combo hands and probably some bluffs. The problem with our hand is our flush draw is so goddamn low and we don't have a pair. That said, I'm definitely not folding the flop ever.

The first time I saw the hand I said I would probably just get it in on the flop. After running more equities I figure this isn't the best idea. At best we're getting it in here as a 60/40 favorite. Btw, this is interesting, we're only a 60/40 favorite against a random (****) hand on this flop. This makes me think it's a great result if we get him to fold bluffs. However, if he does have a bluff I don't think he's going to continue on the turn, and I'd also be more likely to think he might be bluffing if the board was 854, not 874. At worst we're getting it in with like 20-25% equity against a higher FD + pair or straight draw. All things considered I don't like getting it in on the flop.

That leaves calling. What does our range look like? Top two + something, sets, bare 56** (?), flush draws + something. If a diamond falls and he bets out I'd fold, just because there are a lot of FDs in our range and he should be shutting down without a flush. If the board pairs and he checks I'm definitely taking a stab, probably near 1/2 pot. Probably also taking a stab on a 5 turn, planning to shove the river if he calls and it blanks.

If a blank comes on the turn and he bets big he's never folding and I don't see the point in shipping in our last $100. At this point we should be still calling against bare 56** or bare sets. We should be folding to higher FDs and other combo hands. If we've established he rarely has 56 or a bare set and probably isn't bluffing the turn with air when we flat, we probably should fold the turn to a big bet. Another interesting equity, we have 40% equity vs. a random hand (****) on a blank turn.

Questions:
If he checks a blank (say non-diamond A,2,3,Q,K) turn should we be bet-calling (as if we had 56** or a set) or taking a free card with like zero SD value thinking he's usually not folding the turn when he checks?

What's your x/r range on this flop against a 400plo reg?

Does he ever do this as a bluff or raise/fold any weaker draws?

KK said he seems taggish over 30 hands , no other reads.

I wouldn't expect the cr to be air or hands that are raise/folding very often. I don't think FE should play into our flop reaction very much, it is more a complicated equity evaluation spot. I like a combination of the 'peel and fold if he bets a diamond turn' and 'peel and rep a boat if the board pairs' lines.

Does he ever do this as a bluff or raise/fold any weaker draws?

It'd be really unusual for him to be bluffing here. With some history it'd be different but against unknowns without history players like this tend to play pretty straight up.

Been thinking about this hand for a couple of days now. I will agree that a taggy player will not likely x/r with bare 56 and more likely with a bare set. This is a very draw board and when you continue he's going to hate a ton of turns with those bare hands and 1.5 PSB left. I don't think he's going to be x/r with bare NFD or overpairs + NFD though, because you just *might* have 56 and he won't be doing great against that.

So more likely than not I would x/r strong combo hands and probably some bluffs. The problem with our hand is our flush draw is so goddamn low and we don't have a pair. That said, I'm definitely not folding the flop ever.

The first time I saw the hand I said I would probably just get it in on the flop. After running more equities I figure this isn't the best idea. At best we're getting it in here as a 60/40 favorite. Btw, this is interesting, we're only a 60/40 favorite against a random (****) hand on this flop. This makes me think it's a great result if we get him to fold bluffs. However, if he does have a bluff I don't think he's going to continue on the turn, and I'd also be more likely to think he might be bluffing if the board was 854, not 874. At worst we're getting it in with like 20-25% equity against a higher FD + pair or straight draw. All things considered I don't like getting it in on the flop.

That leaves calling. What does our range look like? Top two + something, sets, bare 56** (?), flush draws + something. If a diamond falls and he bets out I'd fold, just because there are a lot of FDs in our range and he should be shutting down without a flush. If the board pairs and he checks I'm definitely taking a stab, probably near 1/2 pot. Probably also taking a stab on a 5 turn, planning to shove the river if he calls and it blanks.

If a blank comes on the turn and he bets big he's never folding and I don't see the point in shipping in our last $100. At this point we should be still calling against bare 56** or bare sets. We should be folding to higher FDs and other combo hands. If we've established he rarely has 56 or a bare set and probably isn't bluffing the turn with air when we flat, we probably should fold the turn to a big bet. Another interesting equity, we have 40% equity vs. a random hand (****) on a blank turn.

Questions:
If he checks a blank (say non-diamond A,2,3,Q,K) turn should we be bet-calling (as if we had 56** or a set) or taking a free card with like zero SD value thinking he's usually not folding the turn when he checks?

What's your x/r range on this flop against a 400plo reg?

Pretty good post/analysis, and that's kind of how I feel about the hand.

To your questions:

1. Yep, I'm still betting the turn if it's a diamond. It'll be difficult to get two streets of value from a smaller flush, so it doesn't matter whether we get it on the turn or the river. Betting the turn charges him for the times he shows up with set. fwiw I don't think he would ever c/r the turn without the nut flush there. Nut flush continues to bet the turn pretty much always it seems.

2. Against 400PLO reg? Depends on their cb'ing frequencies, but in this spot I'd be pretty polarized, mostly because it's a pretty high SPR situation. It would suck to c/r a weak or medium combo draw because there's still a lot of hands he can peel with that'll make it awkward for us later. If it was a 3b pot and I was OOP, you could obviously c/r a cbet much lighter than when it's just a single raised pot HU on this board type.

KK said he seems taggish over 30 hands , no other reads.

I wouldn't expect the cr to be air or hands that are raise/folding very often. I don't think FE should play into our flop reaction very much, it is more a complicated equity evaluation spot. I like a combination of the 'peel and fold if he bets a diamond turn' and 'peel and rep a boat if the board pairs' lines.

Ya, I think you're right, there's no significant FE, so it's just a big EV problem. I think it's important to note though that we really only have 10 clean outs to the turn (not counting board pairing bluffing outs), so if we're going to be giving up on bricks and diamonds then I'm not sure about the profitability of peeling the flop then. Things obviously change a lot depending on the player, but in an instance like this where I really felt his range was more heavily weighted towards dominating draws than made hands, it might be better to dump it. Where's a game theorist when you need him? haha.

1. Yep, I'm still betting the turn if it's a diamond. It'll be difficult to get two streets of value from a smaller flush, so it doesn't matter whether we get it on the turn or the river. Betting the turn charges him for the times he shows up with set. fwiw I don't think he would ever c/r the turn without the nut flush there. Nut flush continues to bet the turn pretty much always it seems.

2. Against 400PLO reg? Depends on their cb'ing frequencies, but in this spot I'd be pretty polarized, mostly because it's a pretty high SPR situation. It would suck to c/r a weak or medium combo draw because there's still a lot of hands he can peel with that'll make it awkward for us later. If it was a 3b pot and I was OOP, you could obviously c/r a cbet much lighter than when it's just a single raised pot HU on this board type.

Actually my first question was what to do on a blank turn, not a diamond. Say the K or 3 rolls on the turn and opponent checks (I'm aware he's barreling a blank like almost always). Are we usually taking a free card here? Definitely agree on second answer.

I think it's tough to do but I think you're right in folding the flop. He's a pretty taggy player and his pf range consists of hands that crush your current draw. If your flush draw was Jhigh would it make it a ship?

Where's a game theorist when you need him? haha.

you have one as a student

get at me

Please let me know if I'm missing something obvious here, but:
in order for villain to be freerolling the flop with a dominating draw, doesn't he have to have pretty much the same hand (JT9) WITH higher clubs? Of course that's possible, but not the most likely situation. So even if hero only has 10 clean outs I'd be calling and hoping to get freerolling the villain on the turn, this time for stacks.

There also has to be some implied odds out there as villain may choose to bet his hand to protect against the other draw when one hits. Although if the consensus is to fold to any bet on a diamond turn this doesn't really apply.

As an aside, what should villain actually do with 888 if a diamond or a J, T, 9, or a 6 hits?

I'd peel and probably fold if he bets a diamond. I wouldn't try repping a boat here as there as just too many missed draws and I don't expect him to fold 56. Give us JT96 w/ diamonds and I just jam the flop.

I'd peel and probably fold if he bets a diamond. I wouldn't try repping a boat here as there as just too many missed draws and I don't expect him to fold 56. Give us JT96 w/ diamonds and I just jam the flop.

I think whitelime said it all.