Pot Limit Omaha Poker Forums

The two villains in the pot are tight aggressive and they seem to be thinking players even though this is micro stakes. Should i take there checks on the river for weakness? I want to steal this big pot on the river with air. With the board pairing on the end should i represent the full house?



Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 4 players - View hand 44614
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $8.77
BTN: $4.83
SB: $20.19
BB: $3.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with 5 A K 6
Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.08, BB calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.24) 8 2 T (3 players)
SB bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24, Hero calls $0.24

Turn: ($0.96) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.96, Hero calls $0.96, SB calls $0.96

River: ($3.84) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero?

fold pf and definitely fold the turn.

why would you call the turn with a set (wrt you repping a boat on the river)?

fold pf and definitely fold the turn.

why would you call the turn with a set (wrt you repping a boat on the river)?

I do admit it was a bad play to call the turn. I just had missed 3 flush draws in a row so i thought odds were on my side to hit the flush this time. but oh well i missed. i just knew the only way to win this pot was to bet it. the problem is just a matter of how much to get the job done to make it a profitable play.
they both checked to me on the river which i thought was weak so i told myself that if i bluff .12 into a pot of 3.69 i only have to be successful 1 out of 30 times to make a it a profitable play. So thats what i did. Please see the results below.



River: ($3.84) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, SB folds, BB folds

Final Pot: $3.84
Hero mucks 5 A K 6
Hero wins $3.69
(Rake: $0.15)

I just had missed 3 flush draws in a row so i thought odds were on my side to hit the flush this time.

just to be sure, this is a joke right?

just to be sure, this is a joke right?

No its not a joke. If your a math guy tell me what the odds of you hitting a flush if you have missed 3 flush draws in a row and are trying to make the flush on the 4th try ? Is it not better then 2 to 1? Sorry IM not trying to size you up your the pro and im just a lonely microstakes player just trying to get better.

What about my river bet is it even worth making? or is it -EV?

No its not a joke. If your a math guy tell me what the odds of you hitting a flush if you have missed 3 flush draws in a row and are trying to make the flush on the 4th try ? Is it not better then 2 to 1? Sorry IM not trying to size you up your the pro and im just a lonely microstakes player just trying to get better.

What about my river bet is it even worth making? or is it -EV?

your odds of hitting a flush this time have absolutely nothing to do with what has happened in previous hands. knowing that every hand is an independent trial (ie previous hands don't dictate current odds/hands/whatever) is a very important concept to understand.

as for your river bet, it might be very slightly +EV, but a bet of $1 is more likely to fold out hands like 8xxx that will probably call your super tiny river bet. tbh you probably had the best hand.

your odds of hitting a flush this time have absolutely nothing to do with what has happened in previous hands. knowing that every hand is an independent trial (ie previous hands don't dictate current odds/hands/whatever) is a very important concept to understand.

keep thinking that.

your odds of hitting a flush this time have absolutely nothing to do with what has happened in previous hands. knowing that every hand is an independent trial (ie previous hands don't dictate current odds/hands/whatever) is a very important concept to understand.

keep thinking that.

you disagree?

keep thinking that.

n0whereman is right; each hand is a completely independent event. Thoughts like "playing your rush" or "I have to hit because I haven't hit in hours" are part of the Gambler's fallacy. You may feel "due," but that has no impact on what will happen, or what the proper play is in this case.

Based on my PLO experience, what n0whereman has said here so far is correct; folding the turn is going to be correct as a "default" play, as you're getting 2:1 immediate odds but you only have 12 true outs, and you have a player behind you who may checkraise making your odds worse overall.

Rob

i respect your philosophy but i have been using this one for about 2 years now and it has been working for me. you might want to rethink things over. this is some advanced stuff. im not sure if you will ever believe it though. run some test simulations and let me know what u find out.

The reason you are seeing this the wrong way papifeo is that you are thinking of lining up 4 hands and then what are the chances of 4 flushdraws missed (say you have 40% each time), 6/10^4. That dont mean that each hand is not individually 40%, the odds for each hand never change!

i respect your philosophy but i have been using this one for about 2 years now and it has been working for me. you might want to rethink things over. this is some advanced stuff. im not sure if you will ever believe it though. run some test simulations and let me know what u find out.

if its worked why are you still at the penny tables?