Pot Limit Omaha Poker Forums

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
$25.00 USD PL Omaha - Sunday, July 01, 10:27:24 ET 2012
Table Martha III (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $63.72 USD ) - VPIP: 59, PFR: 24, 3B: 3, AF: 2.5, Hands: 63
Seat 2: Player2 ( $17.37 USD ) - VPIP: 48, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 2.3, Hands: 21
Seat 3: Player3 ( $10.70 USD ) - VPIP: 60, PFR: 26, 3B: 8, AF: 1.5, Hands: 306
Seat 4: Hero ( $75.50 USD ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 3.4, Hands: 1248237
Seat 5: Player5 ( $25.00 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 3.2, Hands: 772
Seat 6: Player6 ( $18.43 USD ) - VPIP: 95, PFR: 51, 3B: 13, AF: 1.5, Hands: 39
Player6 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9h Ad Jd 9c ]
Player2 folds
Player3 raises [$0.85 USD]
Hero calls [$0.85 USD]
Player5 folds
Player6 calls [$0.75 USD]
Player1 calls [$0.60 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 8s, 7c ]
Player6 checks
Player1 bets [$2.60 USD]
Player3 folds
Hero calls [$2.60 USD]
Player6 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3d ]
Player1 bets [$4.90 USD]
Hero calls [$4.90 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
Player1 bets [$8.60 USD]
Hero folds
Player1 wins $8.60 USD
Player1 wins $17.57 USD from main pot

I call the flop because Im IP and because were 250bb deep. I think if I raise flop villain could play pretty good vs me because he can just call and play the turn correctly, am I right?

On the turn I didnt know what to do, I called hoping the river would brick. I guess I shouldve potted the turn so villain could make a mistake callin with his set?

Calling the flop is good, especially with no back-up equity. If we raise and get re-raised, we can find ourselves in a spot where we're being free-rolled.

When a clean turn rolls off, we need to start thinking about putting in a raise somewhere. We're still pretty deep with the SPR at 7 though so I don't hate waiting for a clean river since if we raise and get re-raised, we can still be in the getting free-rolled spot. His turn sizing looks weak though. I prefer raising if we don't think villain will continue to barrel on brick rivers with his non-straights. Raising turn will allow us to play for most or all of the rest of villain's stack on the river if he calls.

On the river I can never find a fold. Our hand is under represented and in fact looks like we have a 2 pair/set hand after just calling twice. He's also giving us a great price with a less than 1/2 pot bet and he could play 96 this way not knowing what else to do with it.

Thanks for your analysis.

I think we should be raising the turn for value a decent amount, especially given the board is rainbow which makes it harder for someone to be freerolling us massively and means there are gonna be less ugly rivers villain can lead and make us sick.

As played, not calling seems crazy imo given how under-repped you are.

I can see folding the river if he bet huge but his bet sizing makes it too easy for him to have a straight.

Also I don't think being underrepped is actually important (or correct) by this river, given how we have fullhouses in our range on the river, we are actually quite far down in our range now. But because he bet so small, it's just so likely he has something that wants to block bet so he doesn't have to call a bet.

The actual most likely hand he has here is duplicate J9 looking for value from 69, but he could very well have something like T7, 87.

If he potted it or bet big we have to assume he took this line with TT and then got there and now is just thinking "I want value somehow from something."

Schweig, why is that river bet size not looking to you like a value bet with a FH?

When people have nuts or near nuts they tend to bet on the larger size while this is less than half pot.

And that's not because he is 'begging' for a call here so betting that much smaller?

I'm sure he might do that but the main part is that it weights it away from fullhouses enough that when we get 3:1 we can probably call with the nut straight.

Ah OK. So how many times do we need to be correct that he doesn't have FH, so that calling with nut straight wins vs. splits against other nut straight vs. loses to FH in order make this 3:1 river call profitable?

If he has just nut straights or fullhouses, we either tie or lose. We can tie and win 0.5*17.57 = $8.785 (villain gets his bet back and we chop what's in there). If we lose we lose our call which is $8.60 so he basically needs to have 50/50 straights and fullhouses.

There are things like winning the total pot in case he just made a completely spaz bet with 69 or T8 or bluffed with JJ or something that are heavily in our favour.

Is there a series or article that explains this from the ground up, as I am a little lost when I watch vids or read things where people say 'well I'm getting three to one on a call and only have to be right 50% of the time' or something like that...?