Pot Limit Omaha Poker Forums

AA dry board flop HU

or track by Email or RSS


Superchimp8

Avatar for Superchimp8

221 posts
Joined 06/2008

Merge $25.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 1750161
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $11.00
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $41.72
BB: $31.89
UTG: $14.57
MP: $16.28

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A Diamond 9 Club A Club 2 Diamond
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) K Spade 5 Club 3 Diamond (2 players)
UTG bets $1.27, Hero calls $1.27

Turn: ($5.09) 4 Diamond (2 players)
UTG bets $3.39

Villian is 28/10, no reads.

Posted almost 2 years ago

libertines123

Avatar for libertines123

58 posts
Joined 01/2010

On the flop you have the odds to call against the nuts and I can't see any point in raising if you are ahead as there aren't many scare cards that can come on the turn.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
2,152,500 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KSpade5Club3Diamond
AdAc9c2d 25.85% (554,863 wins, 3,123 ties)
KK 74.15% (1,594,514 wins, 3,123 ties)

On the turn if you look at the range of hands he might donk the flop and bet the turn for half pot then 2/3 pot then you still have the the odds to call.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
580,840 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KSpade5Club3Diamond4Diamond
AdAc9c2d 30.43% (176,370 wins, 738 ties)
KQJT,KK,67,Ac2c 69.57% (403,732 wins, 738 ties)

The question is whether his play looks more like KK than Kx or 67 at this point. I would say more likey to be 67 as KK is more likely to either bluff-catch or bet bigger.

So I would call and face what should be a relatively easy river decision in position: bet for value if checked to and the board doesn't pair and fold to another lead unless it is a stupidly small bet as I don't think they will bet 3 streets with Kx or bet again with KK.

Posted almost 2 years ago

Dutch45

Avatar for Dutch45

99 posts
Joined 03/2010

With position I like to just call here and play a river. We have additional equity but our hand is kind of a bluff catcher in a sense that if we're behind, we have < 20% equity. When he donks the flop, I think it's usually a hand that interacts decently with the lower half of the board that knows your hand rarely hits that range of cards, and now on the turn, many of his holdings which will now have us in bad shape. If he does happen to have a weaker 2 pair hand or a set, we don't really want to blow him off of the hand; however, if he checks the river or we improve, stacks will be shallow enough that we can still put him all in.

Posted almost 2 years ago

slycebu

Avatar for slycebu

961 posts
Joined 09/2009

OK, this may be a leak of mine, so here are my thoughts, trash 'em... Smile

This looks like two pair and sets to me a lot more than 764x - I don't think he's donking a bare 76 on the flop, and I don't think a 28/10 is open limping x764 a whole lot utg (assuming the hand sample is significant).

board: Ks5c3d4d
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AdAc9c2d 56.12% 684,273 12,696
KQJT,KK,67,Ac2c,K5,K3,55,33 43.88% 533,711 12,696

He's half stacked and we look like we have AA unimproved here a lot, so I'm looking to get value from sets/two pair with a live nut flush draw against the nut straight (i.e., shove turn).

How wrong is my range for utg, and how wrong is my reasoning for shoving turn (assuming my range for Villain isn't absurdly wrong)?

Posted almost 2 years ago

Dutch45

Avatar for Dutch45

99 posts
Joined 03/2010

I don't think it's a huge leak but when we raise, we're representing the straight, so we're relying on UTG to make mistakes and call with most of his 2 pairs and set hands without proper odds. If UTG correctly folds those hands, then we're just isolating ourselves against the part of his range which we don't have great equity. Given that he's playing with a half stack, this could suggest he may call improperly, but he also has tight-ish stats which could suggest he may be able to get away from his hand.

As far as his range, my experience when I see this kind of flop donk is some hand that is OOP, has some equity, doesn't want to have to ch/call a big bet but knows the flop doesn't hit our range hard, though we can certainly represent wider than AA given that we're iso-raising on the button. A lot of times I see exactly hands like 567, 467, etc., moreso than small pairs, especially given that he is somewhat type and so more unlikely to be playing these hands early and OOP. Also, if he did have 55 or 33, I would expect him to check-raise often to extract value knowing we're almost always C-betting this board.

For the range listed, I would try to make it more specific, like having the hands in his range fall within the top 20% of hands but excluding some percent of hands that he would raise UTG. As shown, hands like J733, 55Q2, etc., as including in the range which are very unlikely. I would also remove some combos of KK b/c he's probably still raising many of the stronger ones preflop like KKQTds, etc.

Posted almost 2 years ago

Superchimp8

Avatar for Superchimp8

221 posts
Joined 06/2008

Thanks a lot Dutch45, that was really helpful, and thanks to everyone else too for taking a look at this.

Posted almost 2 years ago




HomePoker ForumsPot Limit Omaha → AA dry board flop HU