From my PLO experience QQxx hands aren't that often in people's 3betting range, with no reads on his 3betting range I dont think you can assume it is QQxx, also I find people rarely ever slow play top set even on the driest of boards especially when you are this deep but of course it is possible.
His turn raise sizing is nowhere near pot and considering how deep you both are I would expect him to pot (or at least larger raise) top set considering how deep and the draws now present on the turn, but then if villain does ch back top set and has the turned flush draw then they may feel their hand is pretty invulnerable hence the bet sizing that doesnt seem worried about charging draws etc but imo this is unlikely as I dont think preflop aggressors slowplay as stated above.
I often find the flop check back is either giving up or a marginal hand that cant stand a c/r so in my opinion his range consists of a lot of hands that the turn card has helped. Maybe similar hands to yours, a turned wrap and flush draw, 55xx, maybe Q5Ax NFD or some pair NFD combo etc. His turn bet sizing leads me to weight his hands more to this type rather than top set.
On river, all the draws miss and I dont think he bets any Qx 2 pair apart from QTxx that turned some big draw. Therefore given how I perceive his range in this spot I think call on this river as more missed draw combos than value hands. Also, your hand looks weak and very much like a straight draw / FD combo / weak 2 pair + draw so it is an easy river bluff here the times he has a turned wrap / FD combo etc
I could be way off and see QQxx but the above is my thought process rightly or wrongly.
Posted about 1 year ago
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