Marinus
319 posts
Joined 04/2009
Schweig
1081 posts
Joined 10/2008
5carab
805 posts
Joined 07/2010
I'm w/ Schweig. People won't bluff KKxx and the nut flush draw now has a pair so will check down. Even some small boats may check fearing a check/ raise (people always fear the A vs. the opener). If he bets the river, you're beat WAY too often to call and he won't call without a better hand than ours.
Posted over 1 year ago
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ytricky
50 posts
Joined 10/2008
HRPaperstacks
2048 posts
Joined 07/2009
Flop and turn are fine, though I'd bet a bit more on the turn, 15-16.
With these sort of loose/passive stations, it's hard to put them on a range. While Jx or better is likely, any flush draw could be in there too. Since he's unlikely to pay off anything you beat on the river, though, check/fold is really the only thing that makes sense. You don't have to worry too much about a river bluff if he's a passive station: I wouldn't be surprised to see him check 66 behind.
Posted over 1 year ago
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zankaa
678 posts
Joined 04/2008
HRPaperstacks
2048 posts
Joined 07/2009
can we bet like 1/3 pot or something vs this type of player? say he has like 99Ax and hit an A on the river, do we really expect him to fold that?
If you knew he'd call down 3 streets with just an underpair, sure, but that's a bit of wishful thinking, isn't it? Unless you meant Ac*c99? That's a little more reasonable to expect, but it's still a big parlay to hope his busted flush draw leaves him with just enough to call 1/3 pot with.
His range is relatively wide, but it's not 80% of hands on the river. His preflop range is very wide, but his call fairly big bets street after street range isn't as wide. He's much more likely to have our hand beat, followed by a small percentage of busted flush draws, followed by MAYBE J with a smaller kicker a tiny percentage of time. We're beat for most of that range, so why bet?
Posted over 1 year ago
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zankaa
678 posts
Joined 04/2008
If you knew he'd call down 3 streets with just an underpair, sure, but that's a bit of wishful thinking, isn't it? Unless you meant Ac*c99? That's a little more reasonable to expect, but it's still a big parlay to hope his busted flush draw leaves him with just enough to call 1/3 pot with.
His range is relatively wide, but it's not 80% of hands on the river. His preflop range is very wide, but his call fairly big bets street after street range isn't as wide. He's much more likely to have our hand beat, followed by a small percentage of busted flush draws, followed by MAYBE J with a smaller kicker a tiny percentage of time. We're beat for most of that range, so why bet?
ok thanks. just starting out with plo atm. used to nl i guess
/ pontus
Posted over 1 year ago
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FlamingMoe86
547 posts
Joined 04/2008
I like a small bet vs a fish.
We can discount some Jxxx combos because they might have raised at some point earlier in the hand.
EDIT: he has less then a 1/2PS-bet left, so I would just shove for value and let him be a hero with whichever bluffcatcher he could have.
A small (thin) valuebet doesnt need to be the best hand that often and vs a huge fish I dont want to loose value when I have a strong hand.
Posted over 1 year ago
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