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NL100 AK on KXX flop

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dohdohdoh

Avatar for dohdohdoh

3119 posts
Joined 12/2007

Opponent 23/8 no aggression stats.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $97.00
Hero (BB): $100.35
UTG: $29.25
UTG+1: $47.95
MP1: $70.90
MP2: $149.20
CO: $164.80
BTN: $103.30

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A Spade K Heart
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold, BTN calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, MP2 calls $7, 1 fold

Flop: ($20.50) T Diamond 7 Heart K Diamond (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP2 raises to $50, Hero ?

Posted almost 5 years ago

Route66

Avatar for Route66

17 posts
Joined 05/2008

I'd feel better having a read that villain would play a draw aggressivly, but I'm most likely still moving in here. The pot's big and you're really only worried about TT and 77... KK and two pair are unlikely. He either has you crushed or he has a draw. There are lots of combos of drawing hands against which you have anywhere from 50-65% equity, and only 6 combos that have you crushed. You almost certainly have zero fold equity, so you're basically risking $90 to win $200 by shoving. You need to be ahead more than around 50% of the time to make playing for stacks profitable, so unless you have a read that he'd only make this raise with a set I think you have to get it in.

Posted almost 5 years ago

Route66

Avatar for Route66

17 posts
Joined 05/2008

My bad... I think you're actually risking $77 to win $127 ($85 in the pot plus another $42 from MP2), so you probably need to be against a draw around 65% of the time. I'm still getting it in here.

Posted almost 5 years ago

Stonewalled

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68 posts
Joined 06/2008

I think you need to go with the hand b/c there are so many draws Villain could be on. I'd probably just get it in now b/c he's pot committed, and also b/c you're oop.

Posted almost 5 years ago

dohdohdoh

Avatar for dohdohdoh

3119 posts
Joined 12/2007

Well, I figured I was beat. The way he limped/then called my PF raise suggest a pair. His rr on the flop suggested a set and he wanted to defend against a flush or straight draw.

My read was kinda right, in the respect that I felt I was seriously beat, when I folded he showed K10s for 2pair.

Posted almost 5 years ago

Stonewalled

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68 posts
Joined 06/2008

It could just as easily represent a suited connector that is on a draw now.

Posted almost 5 years ago

critikal

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35 posts
Joined 04/2008

Though there's a gap in his vpip/pfr I wouldn't expect him to overlimp TT (&especially KK) here. There's a chance he raises 77 but he might over limp those. Since all we're really worried about is 77 or KT I think I'd be getting it in here. If he's limping behind KT then he also could have 89 or JQ and be raising, and I'd expect to see Axdd a fair amount.

Posted almost 5 years ago




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