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Both hands happened on the same table in the same orbit.
My image should be on the looser side of the TAGs, I played 20/16 this session and was pretty aggressive postflop also.

Villain in hand 1 is a 19/13, folds to cbets 2 out of 7 times (raised once, called the rest).
Not too many reads here.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1828319
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $20.00
UTG: $81.03
UTG+1: $61.40
UTG+2: $46.50
MP1: $28.43
Hero (MP2): $60.21
CO: $64.31
BTN: $50.00
SB: $53.96

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with J 9
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 4 2 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, BTN calls $5

River: ($17.75) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $11.00, BTN raises to $26.50



Villain in hand 2 is playing super tight and passive so far. 14/8 over 87 hands.
The preflop raise is pretty thin, but I had my reasons.
The overcaller in the BB is 16/13 reg over 500 hands and folded to cbets 38% of the time.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1828324
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $19.25
BTN: $80.28
SB: $61.65
BB: $46.50
UTG: $28.43
Hero (UTG+1): $50.00
UTG+2: $64.31
MP1: $68.46
MP2: $54.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with K T
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, UTG+2 calls $2, 4 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($6.50) Q 8 Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks

Turn: ($6.50) A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.00, UTG+2 calls $4, SB folds

River: ($14.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, UTG+2 raises to $25


Hand 1 is a pretty clear fold imo and I think the 3barrel is the best option also, agreed?

Hand 2 is definitely closer, but I expect him to slowplay AQ, QQ and 88 a lot so this might also be a fold, cause he prolly doesn't raise lower flushes on this paired board on the river and the chance of him bluffing tends to 0.
On the other hand I get 3:1, so I only need to be good 25% of the time.

Hand 1, what is your sample size on vilain? Vs a solid player, I definitely fold here without a read. Vs a random player, I might be tempted to call because we are getting good odds and we might be good often enough.Here, this guy have reggish stats, so betting for value OTR with the intention of folding to a shove seems fine.


Hand 2, is probably a fold as well. I think that vilain has AQ, QQ and 88 a decent amount of the time. Betting river is also fine here. His lower flushes should be in his calling range

I never expect this kinda villain in hand 1 to turn any hand of his range into a bluff on the river, so it's seems to be an easy fold.

Why you bet so small on the flop i am interested ?


Hand 2: We have 3:1 odds to call, i expect villain to raise there lower flushes. So i can add 3 lower flushes that raise in villains range, to get our call +EV.

Our percieved range includes Qx and Ax, so i expect villain to raise flush for value on the river.

Why you bet so small on the flop i am interested ?

Our percieved range includes Qx and Ax, so i expect villain to raise flush for value on the river.

I'm generally betting on the smaller side from what I see on the 50NL tables, but usually I bet 2,50$ on such a board and oop. Can't recall why I made it only 2$.

Why should our perceived range include Qx in hand 2?
I don't think I'm slowplaying that 3way all too often there.

Why should our perceived range include Qx in hand 2?
I don't think I'm slowplaying that 3way all too often there.

This!

And I don't think that many regs at 50NL will thin value raise lower flushes here like ever. This is really really thin if they do that anyway.

Put yourself in villains shoes.
I think he probably will expect from us to have some Qx slowplayed in our range, so our perceived range includes Qx.
I am sure that he didnt knows you so well and he doesn't know that you never will check your Qx OTF.

hand 2 is for sure a fold as played, but I'm not sure I like your river betsizing given the player type and how you got there.

Also I think assuming our opponent will put Qx in our perceived range is MASSIVELY leveling ourselves imo.

Just an observation:
For me personally I leaked a lot of money by making the statement similar to:

On the other hand I get 3:1, so I only need to be good 25% of the time.

Probably still leak too much lol.
This was in part because I projected my own tendenancies (v high river and bluff frequency) on my opponents. What ultimately changed my thinking was reviewing my opponents hands, filtering for aggression on the rivers. Choose some aggressive opponents w decent samples, review their hands and see if they how often they are bluffing. Let me know what frequency you find, I would be curious.

I agree w MaskedManQC, the chances of someone R w a weaker flush are rare as well as a bluff.

Check opponents river aggr. Frqcy.