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10 NL: AK mistake?

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kobe24poker

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198 posts
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Merge Network $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1816958
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Villain is an 8/5 over 135 hands but only has 32bb's the guy that flats has 46bb's and is less of a concern playing 31/20 over 87 hands, pretty sure I got him crushed. I also have the BB to act behind me so I am think I should have just called w/ AK and seen a flop. Hit TP and bet the hell out of it, or fold if I miss. Mistake to basically jam PF?

BB: $9.40
UTG: $10.00
UTG+1: $3.20
UTG+2: $4.61
MP1: $10.09
MP2: $11.31
CO: $10.00
BTN: $9.10
Hero (SB): $19.44

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with K Heart A Spade
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, UTG+2 calls $0.30, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5.30, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2.90 all in, 1 fold

Posted 10 months ago

MaskedManQc

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This is an interesting question, I don't have a definitive answer on this one, but here are a couple of things to think about. This is based on basic assumptions, but if you have any more information that could change my answers, let me know.

Vilain probably has a tight opening range from EP (I assume he is somewhat position aware). He probably open something like TT+ and AK. With a stack of 32bb, I don't think he fold anything in his range, considering his range is strong here, and that he has a short stack.

So, we can have 2 different reasons to 3 bet, for value or as a bluff.

Can we 3 bet / shove for value? Wich worse hand in his range can call us? We only split vs AK and are behind of all other combos in his range. Plus, we have 40% equity vs TT+ and AK. So, in the long run, if my assumptions are good, we are losing money here getting it in preflop (there is some dead money, but not enough to make the shove EV+).

Can we 3 bet as a bluff? Vilain would need to fold some of the time to make this line profitable. If he folds TT and JJ, this looks like this line will be break-even.

Considering UTG+1 very tight opening range, flatting is probably the best option.

Posted 10 months ago

pokergarden

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rrumsey

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i mean define mistake?

we get it in pre were probably in decent ev shape regardless of how it goes in

that doesn't mean a huge raise there is optimal

Posted 10 months ago

pokergarden

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i mean define mistake?

we get it in pre were probably in decent ev shape regardless of how it goes in

that doesn't mean a huge raise there is optimal



How can we ever be in good shape vs an 8/5 opening UTG?

Posted 10 months ago

MaskedManQc

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I agree with pokergarden. I think that I explainded it well in my previous post. Doing that with AKo here = losing $$$$$$$$$$.

Decent equity? Yes 40% is decent, but not enough to make it EV+
Smile

Posted 10 months ago

Buby2132

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How can we ever be in good shape vs an 8/5 opening UTG?



Hand sample too small to define him as a nit tbh.

He has 32bbs, I get it in pre. I think i prefer 3bet/call. Let him aimlessly spazz.

If he was 100bbs, my play would be a lot different.

Posted 10 months ago

I3betyoutillyoudie

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Hand sample too small to define him as a nit tbh.

He has 32bbs, I get it in pre. I think i prefer 3bet/call. Let him aimlessly spazz.

If he was 100bbs, my play would be a lot different.



playing 8/5 over 135 hands is a decent enough sample to lead us to believe he is a nit

Posted 10 months ago

Poemmel

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playing 8/5 over 135 hands is a decent enough sample to lead us to believe he is a nit



agree

Posted 10 months ago

pokergarden

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He's played 10 hands in 13 orbits of full ring.

He may have a small stack, but boy, I'll tell ya boy, that there, that there is a nit!

Posted 10 months ago

Buby2132

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So you can all safely say you have never played like a nit for 100-oddhands on a table as you have been card dead?

...No, he can be card dead.

Not enough for me not to get in AK here for 32bbs.

Posted 10 months ago

Noreaga

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Joined 10/2011

Let`s say he opens 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo.
What is the reasoning for your play?
Is it to pick up the dead money and fold them pre flop, or you shove for value?
Against his opening range AKo has 46% equity.
Im not hating on shove here, especially bc a lotta times they will put you on small pp and call wide.I`m 50/40/10 in favor of a shove (shove/3b/flat) i think flating is the worse option since he`s so short, and you give the other guy equity.I don`t think he folds to a squeeze either, and might peel, and shove the low bd himself.So all in all, this doesn`t seem like a bad play, when all considered.

Posted 10 months ago

kobe24poker

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I shoved at the time reasoning it was for value. I thought I could get called by AQ+, KQs/AJs+, and figured he might be opening some pairs that get sticky 88+ is what I figured at the time. I considered that I had blockers to him having AA/KK and I also don't hate it when everyone folds and I pick up 7.5bb's.

After looking at the hand in HEM I reconsidered his range and I think he folds and I scoop 7.5bb's more often than my original reasoning. Looking at his stats/considering his range EP I think he's calling AK, JJ+ the rest of his range is probably mucking.

So when I posted the hand I expected a lot of ppl to think it was a mistake and to flat, but I'm still kinda torn.

Please explain the thought process behind 3Bing?

Posted 10 months ago

pokergarden

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If you know his range and what he's calling and folding the EV calculation is really straight forward.

Posted 10 months ago

kobe24poker

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198 posts
Joined 11/2008

If you know his range and what he's calling and folding the EV calculation is really straight forward.


My in game thoughts and post hand review differed quite a bit though, and I don't know how much picking up the 7.5bb's adds to the argument of a shove.

Posted 10 months ago




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