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Ok, Usually I would fold this hand but villian seems very weak post flop and also seems to 3b me a little light, Overall his stas are 10/10 4% 3b (8% vs me) 771 hands. He also plays badly vs me.

Extremely 1 & done and WTSD 17%

I could just fold flop but I thought that were many board run outs where I could take this pot away and he wont barrell me off my hand if he has AK. I get the runout I wanted and villians betsizing on the river screams bet/folding so I followed thru with the plan and pulled the trigger, Thougts?

Also, what do you think of villians bet here if he has KK/AA? personally I think its bad as im never calling with QQ/JJ?

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1812371
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $50.65
UTG: $17.77
Hero (UTG+1): $95.60
MP1: $20.75
MP2: $56.21
CO: $50.00
BTN: $54.63
SB: $50.25

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 3 folds, BTN raises to $4.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($9.75) 6 8 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($21.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($21.75) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $10.50, Hero raises to $85.10 all in, BTN folds

4B or fold pre if you ask me....I'd even lean fold.

Calling 3 bets oop is a good way to lose money.
Also, you are opening from EP and your opening range should be strong. If vilain is aware of that, he should 3 bet a lot less as a bluff in this spot. I fold pre in this spot.

Also, you have 771 hands overall on this vilain, so if you reduce your hand sample vs him exactly, your sample size on his 3 bet range vs you is probably still too low to draw any solid conclusion that he could be doing it wider vs you.

Also, when you say that vilain seems weak postflop, do you refer to his overall aggression?

If he has AA or KK, this is bad to check back turn, he his still missing a lot of value. You might definitely call with JJ and QQ with a

He can definitely bet river for value with AA/KK.

Also, when you check/shove river, what do you try to represent? If your answer is a flush, how would it play it if you have it, especially OTR?

yes usually I would fold this hand agaisnt someone decent but as previously stated I have a reason to call in this situation, i.e villian is weak and plays particular badly vs me. As for the old mantra of calling 3bets OOP will lose you money that may be true for a lot of people as most people play badly in 3b pots IP and OOP. Personally If I filter out all AA/AK (2ish million hands) then I lose less calling 3bets OOP than i do when I just fold to 3bets. The key is to have a reason to call a 3bet over and above your hand strength. This is true for IP/OOP and calling raises in general.

When I say villian is weak post flop I mean he plays badly, makes many betting mistakes, doesnt really think about what he is doing and overall quite passive. He also seems to fold to much to pressure.

I dont think he would expect me to call the turn with JJ or QQ with a heart and for the same reason he cant really bet the river for value. I agree he could probably bet the river or value against alot of regs at NL50.

What am I representing on the river?, well as well as flushes I can have sets and straights and villian can't have any of them as his range is basically QQ+. How would I play all of this hands of the river versus this opponent? I would check shove river as I expect to try and make a value bet here with QQ+ even though if he thought things through he would know there is zero % chance I call him here with JJ/QQ . Its slightly irrelevant though what im representing as this villian isnt going to level himself into a call, he will just see the board texture, a river shove and then fold.

You could argue that I would lead turn with a flush, which I would in some cases but villian isnt thinking that deeply so who cares about having balanced lines against multi tabling weaktight robots? you dont need to balance anything against villians that are just playing their hand strenght vs the board IMO.

I agree the sample size is too low to really draw a conclusion on his 3b by position stats but I have seen him 3bet BU vs UTG with KQo vs me. but again It doesnt really matter what his hand range is in this scenario, Im calling because he plays so badly post flop that I think i do this profitably vs him.

4betting pre seems pretty bad in this spot as he will shove 99% of his range here and I give him a chance to play well as opposed to playing post flop where I know he will play badly.

Having a great skill advantage might be a good reason to call oop. I agree with that. Personnaly, I don't do that, but true, there are probably very specific spots where it could be EV+.

I agree that 4 betting pre is pretty bad here, this is definitely the worse option vs this vilain.

For your river play, you have a blocker to the flush. I always prefer to have a blocker to make these kind of moves. Like AJo with the A of for example or something like that. Here this is probably a decent blocker, but AQ and AQ of are still likely.

Also, if you think vilain will only play his hand strengh, can we consider we have much less FE when we shove river? Also, if he has AA with the A of he is likely to call ,as there will be a lot less combos of flushes possible (that in case in can think to that level).

[quote]Having a great skill advantage might be a good reason to call oop. I agree with that. Personnaly, I don't do that, but true, there are probably very specific spots where it could be EV+.

I agree that 4 betting pre is pretty bad here, this is definitely the worse option vs this vilain.

For your river play, you have a blocker to the flush. I always prefer to have a blocker to make these kind of moves. Like AJo with the A of for example or something like that. Here this is probably a decent blocker, but AQ and AQ of are still likely.

Also, if you think vilain will only play his hand strengh, can we consider we have much less FE when we shove river? Also, if he has AA with the A of he is likely to call ,as there will be a lot less combos of flushes possible (that in case in can think to that level).[/quot

I honestly dont think villian is thinking deeply enough to consider blockers to the the flush, but in any case I think that he would be more worried about straights and sets as he probably assumes that given positions I am only calling pre with PPs (and there are only 2 combos of flushes I can have, AQs AKs, even though I fold AQ pre). I also think he would bet turn again if he had the Ah.

As for FE, when I say he is only playing his hand I mean he is playing his hand in relation to the board and not against my range which is the reason I called the flop. I felt a run out like this would give the FE by the river.

One major factor that led to my flop plan that may have been a mistake was my estimation of future FE based on his extrememly low WTSD %. How big a sample do you think we need to use this stat? Also I think that this is naturally going to be lower than most due to the fact that noone other than fish ever give him any action as he is such a nit, how a big a factor is that do you think?

About WTSD%, I think that it could be a complex question by itself. First, WTSD% take a lot of time to converge, as this is in relation to how often vilain goes to showdown (this vilain see the flop not more that 10% of the time... so imagine for showdowns). You probably have a decent sample, but still, this stat seem a little out of line, for the reasons to follow.

I am surprised that a 10/10 nit has a WTSD% that low. If he goes to the flop with such a strong range, he should usually see a lot of showdowns because his range is very strong in average. Also, his agression factor should be high, as he often has something strong.... Maybe also he don't understand showdown value and play super aggro he should try to see cheap showdown by itself.

There might be other factors to consider, like fold to flop cbet and fold to turn cbet... Anyway, I think that you get the point that you have to get the whole picture before taking a decision.

Personnaly, I have some sessions above 1K hands where my WTSD% is below 20%, just because I am semi bluffing or playing aggressive on some flops and during that particular session I am getting raised like everytime, or everyone fold as soon as I have something. So, variance is a factor, and this stat probably take some time to be accurate.

Ok thankyou that makes alot of sense, yeah I think I put to much weight into that stat given the sample as it can obviously fluctuate widly over 1k hands.

About you saying that because his range is so strong he should be getting to showdowns more, does it not work the other way in that because he is so tight he rarely gets to showdown because no one ever pays him off?

About you saying that because his range is so strong he should be getting to showdowns more, does it not work the other way in that because he is so tight he rarely gets to showdown because no one ever pays him off?

Well, could depend on how aggro he is, or many made hands he turns into a bluff (sometimes without reasons) or how often he value bet thin.