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MP is new, CO is 37/13, SB is new but has taggish stats, BB is a tagfish


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 1768604
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CO: $48.82
BTN: $51.50
SB: $70.99
BB: $48.26
Hero (UTG): $53.62
UTG+1: $111.68
MP: $50.68

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, MP calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($8.75) 8 Q T (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $6, MP calls $6, CO folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

Turn: ($26.75) 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15.50, MP folds, SB raises to $63.24 all in, Hero has 30 behind getting 2.9:1

I was going to try to fold flop to a raise, not sure how that would've worked out SB's call is kinda worrying but you'd expect him to raise KK+ a decent % so it's not too bad.

Turn we have 45 behind with a 26 pot. I guess I have to bet but how big? And then I suppose I have to fold to any raise?

I think that preflop, flop and turn bet are ok.

Ok, so you need a little less than 30% equity to make this call profitable.
Here I think that there are some useful informations missing, like 3 betting and squeezing% of SB.

In short, I think that we can remove QQ from his range and AKs as well (3 betting range). He can have 1 or 2 combos of 88 and TT each, but I really doubt he slowplay on such a wet board multiway like that. So let's assign him one combo of 88 and one combo of TT.

I think that if he has J9s, he should raise it OTF, for the same reasons as sets, but he could also have J9

I think that KiamondJ and KJ:sapde: are 2 possibles and very likely combos.

We could also have AJ or AJ but not sure he would 3 bet squeeze them pre or not. So we could assign him these 2 combos.

I think that these, at first sight, are the most likely combos he could have. When I stove this range, we ave a little less than 29% equity. If you take rake into account, this is just a little less than we need to make the call. I think that this is very close, but probably a fold.

I think that this suggested range is a good starting point, but you can add or remove few combos to see how it can affect your equity. For example, if you add AQ to vilain's range, it make this call ev+. So, don't know if he would flat or 3 bet it pre and if he would raise it OTT. Then, the more you know about your opponent, the more accurate will be your reads.

well this hand is just weird...

if sb is tag/reg he should never (maybe except from J9d ) c/c flop with hands that have you crushed on the flop, c/r would be standard probably. And leading out would be even better in my opinion.

turn seems to be a blank but may improve drawing parts of SB's range, KJs, KQs,AQs,QJs, A4d,...??

It would seem to me that he either has J9d or turned strong draw into a bluff

I used to always just think villain can have a bunch of draws or stuff like QJ or AQss and just jam it in but seems like turn raises aren't those hands too often

Maskedman: I only had <20 hands on SB so I don't really know about those tendencies yet but would be nice to know

hmmm strange, think I have to call here since I would expect villan to raise anything that beats us on the flop, especially being multiway, yeah J9 or maybe Q4 of diamonds might be played this way but since that is just 1 combo I have to call. Seems more likely that he has a draw and he is maximising his FE.

What is villains perception of us, and what are our own turn c betting percentages? That might also figure into it, as well as our fold to flop xr and turn xr stats are.

This is a tough spot for sure. Whenever I call here and get shown a better hand I am reminded of Baluga Whale telling Kristy that we bet bet bet until they play back at us, then we do NOT pay them off. Not saying this is exactly the same, just reminding myself that SS NLHE is usually not about bet calling.

Which

probably a fold