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Our call-down range is just going to be AA+ against him. On this exact flop I think we call once with KK and fold most turns.

I've never seen him call with AA pre. I don't think this is a spot where it's reasonable for him to even if we had seen him do it before though.

Then your math is wonky. Like I said, there are 1326 starting hand combos. You originally said 3% and were including hands like AK and QQ. I did math on 3% which is 1326 x 3% = 40 hands.

A pocket pair is 6 hands. 1326 x .8 = 12 hands or so. So that would mean two PPs. That would be AA or KK. Therefore he would have AA exactly half of the time.

6 AA, 1 KK, ~8 AK/AQ/A8s type hands is the range I gave him. There are only 1275 hands total here because we have two of the cards. That range is something like 1.2% 3bet, which I think is fairly realistic.

If I thought he was 3betting exactly 0.8% I would think that meant 6 AA and ~2 A8s type hands, not 6 AA and 2 combos of other premium pps (he can't 3bet 6 KKs here because there is only one other combo of KK total, btw).

Your confusing your HUD stats with your hand. Your holdings don't matter to what hands he's choosing to play over the course of 2000 hands. You could have been dealt in, out, just watching. Whatever. You cards are immaterial to his opening range of hands. If he's playing a given %, it's of 1326.
That's because there are two separate questions: "how many hands is he playing in general" versus, "given that I have 6cAd, how many hands is he playing?"

HUD only tracks Q1. So he's got 11ish hands according to your 3-bet stats. Now those 11ish hands could include 27 of spades, but most often it 's AA and KK.

BTW, when you're trying to answer Q2, he had 1225 possible hands, not 1275

Our call-down range is just going to be AA+ against him. On this exact flop I think we call once with KK and fold most turns.

Alright, fair enough. I only play full ring live and basically nobody ever 3-bets, so this super tight 3-betting range against your EP open is hard for me to ge my head around.....

Your confusing your HUD stats with your hand. Your holdings don't matter to what hands he's choosing to play over the course of 2000 hands. You could have been dealt in, out, just watching. Whatever. You cards are immaterial to his opening range of hands. If he's playing a given %, it's of 1326.
That's because there are two separate questions: "how many hands is he playing in general" versus, "given that I have 6cAd, how many hands is he playing?"

HUD only tracks Q1. So he's got 11ish hands according to your 3-bet stats. Now those 11ish hands could include 27 of spades, but most often it 's AA and KK.

BTW, when you're trying to answer Q2, he had 1225 possible hands, not 1275

Yeah, 1225 sorry.

When I'm assigning him a range and talking about how much I think he's 3betting in this spot I am taking into account that I have KK.

He certainly doesn't have AA half the time and KK half the time here. If you think his 3betting range is exactly KK+ for some reason in this spot he is going to have AA 6/7ths of the time because we have two kings.

I'm confused. Where are you getting his 3-bet stats?

I'm assigning him a range based on a mix of my HUD samples, notes on what hands he's shown down after 3betting, and my experience of playing poker in this spot against opponents like him.

So you don't really have an exact range of .8% for him? You're just estimating what hands he might have in this spot like the rest of us?

Ok I have to vent a little here. I was thinking I was wrong but I was confused in this spot. I was totally thinking of this hand (thread) in this spot. Not blaming anyone or nothing but geez.

Live tourney Vegas Daily 100 buy in 20 players left. Binions 2 pm daily if you must know. blinds 400 800

Hero UTG+1 K K 25k stack.

Hero raises to 2100.

UTG +2 pauses thinks then calls 2100 he has about 35k stack

MP 3 bets 4200 full table everyone folds to Hero.

Hero tanks and thinks about this thread. MP is tight player. I have him covered by 2500 chips.

I am thinking hmm I wonder if this dude has AA. He is tight I am raising from UTG and he just 3bet me from MP.
UTG +2 is a gold wearing flashing gold nugget rings on his fingers gold necklace, gold bracelet wearing fish. Loose passive weak tight type. This read I have on him is solid. Limping with TT UTG and checking them down type. Flopping a set and bet bet check otr type. I just loved that he called the raise. But MP is fairly tight. Or my read is not correct. So anyway Hero calls 2100 more, UTG+2 of course calls 2100 more. Pot is 7500.

Flop comes 3 5 5

Hero is liking this flop so I check knowing full well someone is (MP) is going to bet at it. Live read at its best MP seemed uneasy to me.

It goes x, x, all in . Hero re shoves, UTG+2 announces to the table ":they both have over pairs to the board" and folds. MP turns over JJ! Dealer searches through the deck calls the floor and they both pull out and find his buddy MP the J of spades ott! (exaggeration) Hero crippled and doing some soul searching lol. River a blank. Hero down to 2500 chips and is soon out.

So If I re shove pre flop does this MP villain fold JJ. And am I wrong to automatically assign him such a strong range based on my position and his re raise pre. My read came when I called his 3bet. Very uneasy adjusting himself in his seat and glaring at the flop. Feel free to bag on me here. But Jesus. Oh well load another or wait until tomorrow? WTF! If its bad plat by me let me have it!

It's never bad to get it in with JJ when you have KK on a 553 board. Don't be results oriented.

It's never bad to get it in with JJ when you have KK on a 553 board. Don't be results oriented.

+1

Even better to do it on the flop than pre, right?

which

Its important that you realize how that hand is different to the first one posted, first up its a tournament with 30bb stacks so ranges are different and secondly the guy in this hand you don't have that solid of a read on how tight this guy is pre. The stack depth is the main thing that makes this hand a pretty easy get it in spot.