Time Link to 00:51:45
This hand has a lot of educational value for the viewer. I had just raised the last 2 hands as the session winds down and raise it a third time and flop top set. I did take a look at BB's post flop stats before cbetting here.
Here's what I know at the point of the cbet:
MP is only continuing with sets on this particular board. I'm not too concerned with bet size just because my plan is that if MP continues in any way, I will take his stack.
The problem comes up when BB also flats. You will notice that given his very tight continuation range coupled with his wide pre-flop calling range, he has strong draws to continue with (MP has no strong draws).
When the turn lands, I find myself in a bit of a quandary. I know that MP has a set and that he will raise my barrel. If he is happening to be watching, this is a lesson in just how much of an information disadvantage he's at vs. me. I know exactly what he has and so I can play perfectly against him. He has no clue what just turned and is doing a typical level 1 thought process "I has me a set, so I will get it in" - when actually he should be thinking exactly the same thing I'm thinking on the turn, which is "Oh, Sh*t"
I do not want to get raised on the turn solely because I know BB has many nutted hands here. The question is will I fold if MP bets his set and then BB goes for the check raise. It's a matter of deduction
Because we know MP has a set, it means there's only 3 other sets left. Depending on how wide I think BB's pre-flop call is (does he call non-suited broadways?) really will influence my continuation range here. Right now is somewhat close to 50.50 and maybe it is exactly 50/50 because Q J should raise this turn each and every time, especially vs. MP's continuation range that will not fold to aggression and is totally crushed.
OTR, this is really the bottom of my calling range. I was praying for a paired river knowing that the vast majority of the time that it pairs, I just won 2 buy-ins. Given that BB can also have a set, and I'm slightly discounting QJ of diamonds, I can justify a call, but this is actually the bottom of my calling range on this board in this exact situation. If I think BB is overcalling preflop with off-suit QJ, then I should probably pitch top set here.
One huge lesson you can get from this, and one that I learned from Grindcore, is that fishy players will often take a c/c c/c shove line with their monsters. My calling range absolutely needs to be strong here.
I wanted to write this all out before listening to the commentary... which I'm sure I'll agree with. I'll be interested to see if coach would find the fold button on the turn or the river.
EDIT: I do understand what you're saying about betting the turn, but perhaps you overlooked or underestimated that BB's continuation range is super tight. In this hand, the question really was BB, I knew I crushed MP... in fact, I'm check folding 77 on the turn vs. MP straight up. That's how confident I am in my read.... not to be results oriented or hindsight biased, but my senses were fairly spot on, it's just unfortunate that even with an information advantage that I had here, it wasn't enough to equate to profit on this hand
Thinking about this some more, there is a good argument to me barreling the turn here, and it goes like this: when I barrel, I completely expect MP to raise me. Should BB come over the top with a check re-raise, I think it's an easier pitch.... but then I know I'd be sitting there wondering if he's stupid enough to do that with TT or 77 on that turn. Some really spazzy losing players will do this and you have to make a hero call, but is he that bad??? Hmmm.
As you can see from my thought process here, playing against someone with a wide range can be difficult to figure out - even for someone that plays a wide range myself.