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Villain is a TAG/LAG who has just lost 2 separate $100 buy ins in a 1/2 live game, and now rebought to $200 after getting 3 outed. He has, as a short stak, gone all in for 46 in LP vs 5 limpers, as well as raising raising all In for 55 w/AK when 4 limpers called a straddle.. He also called raise pre flop, then donked All in for 55 into a 12 pot on a rag board.

effective stack sizes 176 in an UTG straddle pot.

Villain limps UTG+1, MP calls LP calls, BTN calls, I raise $27 BB w/AK

only villain calls

pot 65 2 players

Flop AQ8

I check to induce the aggro into betting big with the intention of shoving, sadly he checks behind

Pot 65 2 players

Turn T

I bet 50, villain calls

Pot 165 2 players

River 3

I bet 50, villain insta shoves for 99 All in

Anyone folding?

which

I would not expect to win it very often but I`m not folding here getting 5 to 1 (need 17% to win to break even). I would better make a smaller mistake and lose 50$ more then bigger mistake and lose 250$ pot.

And I definitely would bet the flop because it connects with all sorts of hands and by betting you actually telling much less about your hand then going for a c/r on the flop as PFR.

pot is too big and viilain is on aggro tilt. call.

Bet flop, as played, either shove river or x/f river. It makes no sense to bet small if you intend to call it off anyway - and I doubt it makes any sense to b/f as played, although I have to admit that you´re probably not good often enough to call - but we simply can´t fold given the odds we´re getting. The spazz factor and the giant pot simply don´t allow us to fold, because the mistake we made if we were wrong would be way, way bigger then the mistake we make if we call it off when behind.

yeah, you guys are right, but then he knows this also?

I mean who puts 99 into a pot expecting the player to b/f this size pot, and he knew pot sizes.

I do admit i had not considered the spazz factor once he checked behind. He may have thought, hey, the heck with this, "Win, or just get the misery over with and go home"

On the way back from the casino, this one haunted me some

I folded of course, badly played post flop, all the way around.

which

It makes no sense to bet small if you intend to call it off anyway .

thing is, in a live game, the 50 bets were the most anyone had bet in the 3 hours i had sat at the table. Live bets do not correlate to pot size, and even the good players (if any of us are good) bet 75% of pot on river, unless they are All In.

which

If you haven't already read the book Small Stakes Holdem. Its a limit holdem book but talks about folding otr when the pot is big. It was one of my biggest leaks prior to reading this book. In summary it talks about how a bad tight fold pre or early in the hand costs you little. A bad tight fold otr when the pot is huge costs you a lot. It becomes a big mistake depending on the pot odds. Here you are getting 6 to 1 pot odds so call knowing you are not making a mistake.The book even explains the tilt that will follow when making this lay down. I think this hand did tilt you a little bit. Good luck

I call, not expecting to be good here very often but based on your reads and the pot odds we cant fold the river. The bottom line is folding is a bigger mistake than calling, even if we are beat.

thing is, in a live game, the 50 bets were the most anyone had bet in the 3 hours i had sat at the table. Live bets do not correlate to pot size, and even the good players (if any of us are good) bet 75% of pot on river, unless they are All In.

which

I know, I know - playing live myself - but this is a common misconception that you should not (!) do. If you think you´ll get a call with 50 but a fold with a shove - by all means to it, but I can´t think of a hand that does that in this constellation, b/c even 50 is a "big bet", so it doesn´t really matter, but you lose value - IF you think you´re ahead of his calling-range.

well,

I did not expect the shove to honest. I expected a fold or sometimes a call. If I thought he would have folded to a shove, as opposed to me losing the hand.... well, uhhhh, I uhhh, I SHOVE

And yeah, it is strange to be live, from an online background, where I am the only guy putting in 50 on a bet. especially when it is not even a pot size bet,

I think live has huge potential for EV compared to online, especially once the US goes back online.

which

thing is, in a live game, the 50 bets were the most anyone had bet in the 3 hours i had sat at the table. Live bets do not correlate to pot size, and even the good players (if any of us are good) bet 75% of pot on river, unless they are All In.

which

Is this why I always get weird looks from people when I bet 3/4+ pot on every street ;-)

We should not forget that the mathematic rules of the game don´t change between live and online. If a 1/2 psb river shove only gets called by the close-to-the-nuts - well, then we should shove this river 100%. We need to succeed 33% for our bet to be break-even, this should be a safe number, if Villain folds all hands but flushes.

Again, not saying that shoving the river in this case was good (neither shoving, nor betting 50 was good, betting 25 or x/f would´ve been the appropriate play, imho). But if you expect to be behind when called, then you were bluffing, right? Was that your intention?

If you bet for value instead, then Villain should not fold any hand for 99 that calls 50 - when the pot is 165. Otherwise - as mentioned beat the shit out of him. And that 99% of the live regs "adapt" to the smaller bets doesn´t mean that we should follow. It makes no sense, from the math point of view.

TB---

I absolutely wanted to get called, and thought 50 was about the most he would call with having a hand I beat. In this game 50 was a huge bet. As an example, I was dealt Q's UTG and wound up betting 25 on the river, and only got check called by the BB who flopped 2 pair? I mean, shouldn't 2 pair throw in a raise somewhere in the hand?

but when the raise on the river came with my having AK on a possible straight/ possible flush board, I only beat a bluff, and no one in their right mind folds for 49 more right?

But, I forgot about the live player who says "EFF it, I am all in" knowing he is ready to go home.

which

thing is, in a live game, the 50 bets were the most anyone had bet in the 3 hours i had sat at the table. Live bets do not correlate to pot size, and even the good players (if any of us are good) bet 75% of pot on river, unless they are All In.

which

You should not bet like others at the table do! Leaving money on the table is a crime when you have a value hand. I do not believe that people would start folding TP hands if you bet according to pot size on every street all the time, do you really believe people put effort into driving to casino to fold strong 2nd pair or weak TP hands?