1/2 NLHE Live table. My image was a losing nit/Tag. An 40 yr old guy just sits down with a full stak, but has called off 1/3 his chips with top pair bad kicker, and the erratic LAP is on the button. The LAP is having the day of his life hitting all sorts of odd two pairs and getting paid, but is generally passive unless he has the nuts. He will also call big raises pre with any two broadway, suited or gapped connectors. He has on occasion raised KXs in LP after the whole table limps, so he seems to know implied odds.
stack sizes MP has 150, BTN has 450, I have 250
Folded around to new guy who limps MP, BTN LAP raises to $12 (standard raise by about 1/3 of table) and I see Aces in the BB. I wanted the MP in, so I flatted. MP calls.
Pot $34, 3 players
I can see this getting checked around, which would be a disaster, so I decide to donk.
I bet $20, MP calls BTN calls
Pot $92 3 players
I am thinking that the board was scary enough that they must have a piece, or a draw rather than a strong hand, they might peel with a Ten, but figure B/F is better than x/c
I bet $50, MP calls BTN calls
Pot $242 3 players
Not liking this, but am trying to figure out what I beat and of that subset, what will call the river....
I am praying for a small red card on river, but trying to figure out which cards I bet and which to c/c and which to perhaps c/f
Any I would x/c, any 9 or Q I am x/f, all others I am b/f.
Is this plan about right?