Full Ring No Limit Poker Forums

I was recently playing in the 1/3 NL fullring game at Morongo with mostly passive strait forward players. The table next to us broke and a big stacked player with ~900 sat down to my right. I got the immediate vibe he was going to be pushing action and trying to be the table captain after a few orbits of watching him play. I have ~800 to begin this hand, so he has me covered and we're very deep.

I open UTG with A(d)Q(c) for 15. Folds around to him and he 3 bets to 60. I call. But I don't love it.
flop - comes A(s),8(h),7(c). He leads 125. I call thinking he'll shut down on the turn and get scared with most holdings and in the back of my mind I consider the possibility of turning my hand into a bluff on the turn if a nice one comes.
Turn - 9(c). He leads again for 250. I take my time and shove, turning my hand into a bluff. I have ~400 left after his 250 turn bet.

My logic is that I think he folds AQ always, AK mostly and he has little else that makes sense. I don't want to chop and I don't want to call him down and see him flip over AK. I figured I could easily represent a set, or possibly a strait. I think he never has AA because I have the other, I think he never repops with 77,88,99 and instead calls to try to flop a set. I on the other hand could have anything in his eyes since I just sat there and watched the first few orbits he played, nitting it up.

I get that this is a super high variance play, but...is my logic flawed to try to turn my top pair big kicker into a bluff on the turn? I want to make it clear I think I'm ahead sometimes and I didn't shove because I was worried, it just seemed like he'd fold almost everything in that spot.

What are the best options on the turn here? His bet made me feel like he wanted me to go away. Remember this is a live game, online I think might be different.

My only problem with taking this line here is we have no read at all if he is capable of folding a tp hand. With any indication he folds to pressure I like it. Otherwise we're just folding out all the hands we're ahead of.

You'll go broke trying to bluff loose action fish in a live game.

I think you are getting your own image wrong. You think he should think you are a nit because you have folded last couple of orbits, however you are shoving in hopes he folds AK, AQ because you could be repping a strait with JT, 56, or a set with 77,88,99.. (I dont think nits call 3bets from utg with any of those hands) His 3bet range vs. your UTG range has to be tight QQ+ AKs. Your flat pre is repping big cards not big pairs, poss. JJ+QQ. Your calling range has to be tight as well. He could be protecting ott with AQs+ QQ+. U might be in trouble here given his bets are big for a live 1/3 game. Plus he is 3betting u from the bb. QQ+AKs.

I think you're right mics, It narrows my calling range of his 3 bet down quite a bit, I'd say straits are out and i'm basically repping sets here or some overplayed big A.

My only problem with taking this line here is we have no read at all if he is capable of folding a tp hand. With any indication he folds to pressure I like it. Otherwise we're just folding out all the hands we're ahead of.

Yeah I don't really like it for a lot of the same reasons. We have no idea how he would play AK in this spot. I think there's a good chance that he just says screw it and calls when the pot gets this big. If that's the case, we are just folding out worse hands. We also have no idea what kind of 3betting range he has. Sure I would expect most people to just flat with most pocket pairs, but he seems to be pushing the action so he could have sets some percentage of the time. He also can have a decent amount of 2 pairs on this board. On the other hand, a pro for shoving would be protecting your hand if you think he's barreling a lot of hands that have decent equity. This might be a little optimistic, though.