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UTG+1 is a rock plays 12/8 over 338 hands. He has c-betted each one of the 9 Flops as PFR and didnt fold to a flop check raise so far. Notes: squeezes KK IP 4 times vs PFR & call, PFR calls & donkbets on A7c4c, he raises smallish and checks behind on turn.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 8 players - View hand 1646474
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $101.20
Hero (SB): $122.72
BB: $234.70
UTG: $207.21
UTG+1: $207.44
MP1: $253.50
MP2: $100.00
CO: $282.31

Pre Flop: ($3.10) Hero is SB with K Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold

I flatted here because he only folds 40% IP vs 3bets and I wasnt sure if I really wanna play a 3bet OOP vs him.

Flop: ($8.60) 4 7 J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $6.15, Hero raises to $19, UTG+1 calls $12.85

I flopped a good flush draw here + 2 overcards and decided to do take the check raise line here.

Turn: ($46.60) K (2 players)
Hero bets $28, UTG+1 raises to $67
Hero ??

The raise from him felt like a stomach kick for me. His range is like KK+,JJ,77,KJs,Tc9c,9c8c,6c5c now, you probably can remove the KK and AA combos, because he would probably 4bet the flop with that. Against that range I have 35% equity, which is enough to shove here right? Would you prefer calling on the turn over shoving? Thats the question that was in my mind after reviewing the hands...
Thanks for your opinion!

Weird hand.

I would remove a lot of the suited connector type hands from his range given he opened EP and he's so tight overall, which leaves sets and not many flush combos at all, only an unlikely 9T or more likely AQ. I discount sets and AQ when he flats the flop and add in KJ and AK/AJ with the A. He may also flat overpairs here.

If those assumptions are true I'd say you have zero fold equity vs his range of sets, AQ, 9T, AK with the , KJ, AJ and possibly AA. You get it in good vs AQ/T9 & AJ and bad vs everything else. Despite having TP+FD you're seriously behind his value range imo and it's hard to see him bluffing here. There's not much money behind and you may have the direct odds to stick it in vs his range, dunno.

Sheesh, never mind "can we fold", when he calls the flop x/r I'm done unless the turn is A

Sheesh, never mind "can we fold", when he calls the flop x/r I'm done unless the turn is A

I think that would be a little bit excessively but the x-f on the turn would have probably been the correct play there, if you think a bit further about his range, that he shoves vs a turn bet afterwards.

With the reads that you have that he never folds to a x/r on the flop, why semi-bluff raise him here? I mean I know it's weak/passive to x/call on this flop, but....

Because its over a small example (2 times) and to find out more about he reacts to that

Hello set.

Hello set.

My thoughts exactly

I think that would be a little bit excessively

You know he's been a nit over a pretty significant sample and you've seen him play pot control with strong but not nutted hands. Do you think this player checkraises with anything that can't beat a pair of kings?

My thoughts exactly

Yeah thats something to think about too, but not many set combos right? Only jacks are likely, 44 he would have folded, 77 possibly too, KK only one combo.

You know he's been a nit over a pretty significant sample and you've seen him play pot control with strong but not nutted hands. Do you think this player checkraises with anything that can't beat a pair of kings?

I guess you got me there... I thought the 9c8c, 10c9c but thats probably an utopia considering how tight he is.

First of all, full ring vs. an UTG open of a 12/8 player, KQs in the sb is simply a muck, maybe you could flat had you been in the bb. The flop c/r is fine I guess, since you fold out AK/AQ, wich is a good portion of his range, maybe also TT. Once you get called though, your range analysis is completely off: I really doubt, he would ever 3bet flop with AA/KK - waht would he want to get called by? Also all those SC's you gave him are not even in his preflop range (which probably is AQ+ 77+, maybe some AJs or JTs type hands). Given all that, c/c turn is a way better line with your turned pair of kings, you have 14 outs against AA, and still 8 vs a possible set. Also you know beat QQ or possibly AJ, which will both check back, but would fold to your bet anyway.

Btw, Flushdraws are probably not in his range at all, given that you block the K and the Q and the J is on the board. Only possible would be T9 or 98 or alike, which a Rock does not play from UTG.

Hello set.

This. I'd say you have way less than the 35% equity you think you have, since sets don't slowplay every time and hands like 65cc, 98cc, T9cc for sure reraise flop or maybe call but don't raise turn, but call flop raise turn is the last line I'd expect from a nit (if he even has those hands). To be honest, the turn bet may be too thin.

Alot of very tight players still raise most pairs from most positions, since they see them as easy to play post. And even if he only reps 1 combo of anything for value, given reads he probably has it.

Also, x/r flop all day. Only severe result orientedness would say otherwise.

First of all, full ring vs. an UTG open of a 12/8 player, KQs in the sb is simply a muck, maybe you could flat had you been in the bb. The flop c/r is fine I guess, since you fold out AK/AQ, wich is a good portion of his range, maybe also TT. Once you get called though, your range analysis is completely off: I really doubt, he would ever 3bet flop with AA/KK - waht would he want to get called by? Also all those SC's you gave him are not even in his preflop range (which probably is AQ+ 77+, maybe some AJs or JTs type hands). Given all that, c/c turn is a way better line with your turned pair of kings, you have 14 outs against AA, and still 8 vs a possible set. Also you know beat QQ or possibly AJ, which will both check back, but would fold to your bet anyway.

Btw, Flushdraws are probably not in his range at all, given that you block the K and the Q and the J is on the board. Only possible would be T9 or 98 or alike, which a Rock does not play from UTG.

Im really thankful for the answer, dont get me wrong lol. Still there are some points where Im asking myself "did he read the parts before"

Folding preflop seems not to bad neither vs such a nit. Do you mean 4bet the flop not 3bet? If so, he would want calls from any flush draw, with pair, with straight combo or QQ I guess.
As written I think it was an utopia thinking he could have 98 or 109...
Thank you for your analysis anyway!

I think your termenology is off here, If you c/r flop, that is 2bet, so to say, so If the Cbettor would now backraise, that would be a flop 3bet. And I think He could not get calls from pairs, since you would not c/r worse for value. FD's are of course true, but shoving AA 100 deep UTG vs blind where he can face all 9 combos of sets and probably not many more combos of FD's is terrible. Makes much more sense to call and shove turn if FD does not hit.

I think your termenology is off here, If you c/r flop, that is 2bet, so to say, so If the Cbettor would now backraise, that would be a flop 3bet. And I think He could not get calls from pairs, since you would not c/r worse for value. FD's are of course true, but shoving AA 100 deep UTG vs blind where he can face all 9 combos of sets and probably not many more combos of FD's is terrible. Makes much more sense to call and shove turn if FD does not hit.

Man of course youre right, sorry - I have been studying the whole week for an upcoming examen next week and have nothing but commercial thoughts brb...

His turn shove isnt too likely in my opinion, because he would have to overbet the turn twice then and only >two pair will call then and he cant be too sure that flush draws will not just c-c here.

Well, a FD might brl turn, as you did, and now shoving seems better with AA, than 3betting flop. There are no possible two pair combos in your preflop range btw, and you will barely ever c/r a single pair(for it two cach two pair on the turn). Your c/ring range is only sets, FD's and maybe some T9s or 98s for a pure gutter.