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Live 1/2 - Too fancy to semi-bluff check/raise shove on the turn?

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zegota

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88 posts
Joined 01/2011

I open UTG +2 with 44 and get called by a fairly tight, straight forward player in LP and one of the blinds. The board comes 225r and I c-bet about 11 into 20 and get called again by LP, blind folds. He's a young guy that played online SNGs prior to black Friday and is very tight and solid, but between his being from a SNG background and often buying in short for only 50 bbs, I don't think he's folding over pairs too often.

The turn is a 3 bringing a backdoor flush draw. I now have an open ender and a pair that I'm almost certain is no good. I ask him how much he has left and he tells me 60 and there's about 45 in the pot. I thought about open shoving and thought about bet/calling the turn and check/folding the river unimproved. Instead, I got a little fancy and checked to him. He bet 17 and I put him all in. He looks like he wants to throw up in his mouth a little, but still doesn't think too long before calling and tables 77. Was I wrong in thinking I could ever get a fold here? What's your line here?

Posted about 6 years ago

ThierryHenry

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1151 posts
Joined 12/2007

I think it's close between c/f and shoving the turn. Giving your opponent a range of 66-99, you are going to need him to fold ~36% of the time to make shoving profitable. With him being short I'm not sure he's going to fold often enough. I really don't like the check raise. He is going to get better odds on a call and will likely feel more attached to the pot, making it less likely he folds.

Posted about 6 years ago

zachd2323

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3148 posts
Joined 04/2010

Yeah I think ch/r is the worst option here. I don't really like to ch/fold with this much equity but I just don't know if he folds much of his range on this turn card.

Posted about 6 years ago

SCS

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6528 posts
Joined 06/2008

What is villain's preflop 3 betting range?
The more overpairs that villain 3 bet's preflop, the more likely villain has a weaker overpair that could fold to a turn shove. If villain is flatting hands like TT+ preflop, then he has a stronger range postflop, which in turn means less fold equity for us.

Posted about 6 years ago

zegota

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88 posts
Joined 01/2011

I think the villain would almost certainly 3 bet JJ+ preflop. Not positive about jacks, but I've definitely seen him get it in pre with QQ+.

I just don't know what I'm repping by open shoving here. It's not like I ever have some hand that I'm trying to protect from a flush or a straight draw that he can almost never have. If someone open shoved on me here, I'd think he's trying to scare me off exactly what I have and/or that he had Axhh and just picked up a buncha outs. Basically what it came down to is that I think my line would work best against me, so that's what I did. Even though this guy was young and not terrible, that doesn't mean I should think he thinks like me.

I still don't like check folding though. Way too much equity, even with some RIO and even if I can't make a buck off him on the river, it's still an easy call when he bets that little. Given that he called my shove, I think it's fair to say I could have taken some more off him if I did hit a good river.

Posted about 6 years ago

infire

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1422 posts
Joined 02/2008

Given that he's from an online background, it think c/f is best here since I think he'd be too likely to realize that you might have too many drawing hands in your range to make folding to a psb+ good, even with as weak an overpair as he showed up here with. He'd be even less likely to think so with better pot odds, and I agree that c/s is the worst option here. With deep stacks, though, I don't think I'd be against taking a c/r, shove many rivers line.

Shoving here mostly reps a lot of draws and overpairs (mostly weakish), imo.

Posted about 6 years ago




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