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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by threads13 (Micro/Small Stakes)

Thanks again for your reply!

Why is it very similar on a J-high board? We would be ahead of QQ now...

Yeah, but I don't think he usually plays QQ this fast. That's somewhat mitigated by the times he plays AQ this was on a Q-high board.

Probably just fold if he bets something greater than 2/3's. I just don't think we have enough equity to continue, and we need a decent amount once he starts betting that big given the reverse implied odds and we aren't auto-getting to showdown.

I think the hand is very similar on a J high flop.

I don't think he has AQ often enough to make donking the river a good plan. I think we're value-towning ourselves too much.

So do you think his range for betting twice on QXXtt is like QQ+ and a few very rare bluff/AQ combos? And on Jxx, KK+ and a few very rare bluff/QQ combos?

So do you think his range for betting twice on QXXtt is like QQ+ and a few very rare bluff/AQ combos? And on Jxx, KK+ and a few very rare bluff/QQ combos?

Yes, something along those lines. I'd say he's more likely to bet TPTK than bluffs.

Take the Qxxs

If I had to put a number on it....

Betting turn frequency:
QQ = 95%
AA = 80%
KK = 80%
AQ = 30%
AK (FD) = 90%
AK (non FD) = 20%

Something along those lines. With those weights it might even be a fold with KK. Another thing is that I'd weight his 3-bet with AQ lower than AA. Basically all the hands we want him to be barreling are the hands that getting weighted down. The hands that beat us are the most likely to play this way.

If you're interested I can run the math on that with those weights. He has a small range so it would only take a few minutes.

Yeah, looking at those weights without crunching the numbers, my gut tells me the turn is very close, maybe a fold. It's up to you if you wanna do that math.

Another question - how do you expect him to react to a 4bet preflop when he has QQ and AK, and how do you think we should weight those hands in his preflop 3bet range compared to KK/AA?

Yeah, looking at those weights without crunching the numbers, my gut tells me the turn is very close, maybe a fold. It's up to you if you wanna do that math.

Another question - how do you expect him to react to a 4bet preflop when he has QQ and AK, and how do you think we should weight those hands in his preflop 3bet range compared to KK/AA?

I'll plug some numbers in soon... if you don't see me do this in a week I've totally spaced it... Knowing myself, that is 2:1 to happen so if I forget, shoot me a PM or something

I honestly think 3-betting those vs me is a mistake in the first place, but give my image I expect him to just get them in. Usually that means 5-bet shove, but they also may get into a mindset of "it's not good enough to shove, and it's too good to fold, so I call". I don't expect them to 3-bet/fold them, though (but I guess you never know what a guy folds, right?). That's kind of just how people play against me. They start 3-betting me wide for value in spots that aren't really good to do that.

For example, pretty recently I played a hand where I was slightly deep and raised UTG+1 in a FR game. An aggro reg (17/14 type) 3-bets me from the CO or HJ. I 4-bet to about 26. He flats. Flop comes Kxx. I c-bet he snap calls. Turn is a brick. At this point I have less than a PSB left and I ship it in. He snap calls AK. I think it's a pretty big mistake for him on pretty much every decision point. There wasn't any history of note (if there was, I was unaware of it ).

So, I mostly just 4-bet my AA in these situations. Vs an aggro reg I would mostly 4-bet KK. However, since I do flat with a few hands in these spots, it's good to be able to fill out my range with some nutty stuff so that my range isn't limited.


This all this could change based on recent history and game flow. If I've 4-bet him a few times recently I'm more likely to 4-bet my AA, for example.

So, I mostly just 4-bet my AA in these situations. Vs an aggro reg I would mostly 4-bet KK. However, since I do flat with a few hands in these spots, it's good to be able to fill out my range with some nutty stuff so that my range isn't limited.
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What other hands would you be flatting with here? pp's to set-mine? AK that you didn't want to fold but didn't want to 4bet?

But yeah, with the KK then if you don't expect him to be folding QQ/AK preflop, and if we ignore any balance considerations (like the one from above), wouldn't 4betting seem like the highest EV since we aren't expecting him to be bluffing or thin value betting with QQ much post-flop?

I did it now so that I couldn't forget.

By my math I got about 35% equity on the turn so it should be a fold on the turn instead of c/c then c/f. I think we need well more than 35% equity to make a call.

If you have him barreling the turn with AQ about 60% of the time it only gets you up to about 42% equity, which I think is both optimistic and steal not good enough.

Time Link to 00:29:13

I don't really get why you want to c/bet the JT into 2 players OOP on a flop of this texture. It seems like it will hit a lot of their range, and bad players don't fold much. Yeah we have a gutshot, but I don't like c/betting this flop knowing that double-barrel bluffing call happy fish on Axx boards is not normally a winning strategy.

Just seems like a standard c/f spot on the flop.

Please could you explain a bit more why you like a c/bet here?

Time Link to 00:52:26

I don't get why you don't c/bet this flop with the A4. It's not like we have much SDV, and a bet on this flop texture is going to get him to fold his small PPs a lot of the time. King high flops are usually the nuts for c/bet bluffs IP, I guess I'd prefer it to be slightly drier, but even so, still looks like a spot where we have a ton of FE with a c/bet.

Please could you explain why you don't c/bet here, because it looks like a super standard c/bet spot to me unless I'm missing something.

I don't really get why you want to c/bet the JT into 2 players OOP on a flop of this texture. It seems like it will hit a lot of their range, and bad players don't fold much. Yeah we have a gutshot, but I don't like c/betting this flop knowing that double-barrel bluffing call happy fish on Axx boards is not normally a winning strategy.

Just seems like a standard c/f spot on the flop.

Please could you explain a bit more why you like a c/bet here?

I agree that of flops to c-bets, an A-high flop will hit their range a little bit more than normal. I wouldn't necessarily say it hits their range a lot, though. By pure definition of them being loose,, flops don't really hit their range a lot.

I think when you combine our ability to hit the nuts on the turn, and get a fold on a flop, then a c-bet is fine. It's close. I wouldn't hate a c/f, but I certainly don't think a bet is bad.

I don't get why you don't c/bet this flop with the A4. It's not like we have much SDV, and a bet on this flop texture is going to get him to fold his small PPs a lot of the time. King high flops are usually the nuts for c/bet bluffs IP, I guess I'd prefer it to be slightly drier, but even so, still looks like a spot where we have a ton of FE with a c/bet.

Please could you explain why you don't c/bet here, because it looks like a super standard c/bet spot to me unless I'm missing something.

Now there's a flop that hits 30-40% pre-flop ranges. Ranges like that contain a lot of two-broadway hands.

I'm not so sure a guy like this is necessarily folding a small PP. So, what we are trying to achieve by betting the flop is getting him to fold an airball like two-unpaired cards that don't contain straight draws. We also are unlikely to run a 2-barrel with this sort of hand, so we are trying to choose when to put our one bluff in. We can get all of that to fold on the turn if we check and then bet the turn. The only problem with this is we may induce a bluff, and give him a chance to hit. So, if he's passive then this play is better. The idea is to make the bluff on the turn with a little more information because we think he'd often bet his Kx type hands on the turn, and then we can just fold. So, instead of betting having no idea if he has a K. We can check and bet the turn when we think he has a lot less Ks. Also, if a bad turn card rolls off then we can just check our A-high down.

I think it's a mistake to say we have a ton of FE on this flop. I'd estimate it's more in the ~35% range. If you think that's incorrect then double-check me on Combonator or Flopzilla. We can compare numbers if you'd like. This is a pretty good board on which to use a delayed c-bet.