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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by RapidEvolution (Micro/Small Stakes)

Wtf fold w AdTd on the river getting 4:1 when he makes a blocking bet 20 into 60? Surely 20% of the time he's making a blocking bet with QQ / KK.

a) This is FR
b) this is rush
c) He's playing very tight preflop and squeezed a tight players open
d) He check-OVERcalled on AAx. When CO bets out, it's plausible that he just has air, but seeing a bet and a call on the flop, a nit isn't going overcall OOP.
e) He's betting into two players who've shown interest in an AAx board. Hands like Ax and fullhouses are well within reason for either of our ranges and yet he bets out. This is AQ+ betting for thin value vs worse A's an overwhleming majority of the time. I'd think the right opponent could shove in my spot and fold out AK if villain has it, but my image isn't quite that nitty.

this vid is very tilting

I think it is mistake to fold AT in that situation.
I think it is close decision and I think calling is not super profitable.
It appears you have discounted the action all in the one direction....imo

His 3betting value range - is likely AQ+ JJ+.

Your likely perceived range to flat PF then overcall is AQ maybe AJs,ATs KQs KJs some 87s - but mainly PPs that dont 3bet PF TT-55(44)

Flop: At least some of the time we should expect villian to c-bet AK AQ. I dont think he would fold JJ+ to one bet from CO even as an overcall. I think it does remove all non Ax 3bet/bluffs from 3bettors range as we should expect them to c-bet.

Turn: gets checked thru - 3bettor should and prolly would discount Ax further from both of your ranges.

River: I think that you are right in saying its a thin value bet. Now the thing is I dont think he can c/c with KK - I think he prolly should c/f KK to most bet sizes or bet-fold - but tdoes he bet thinly for value with it? I mean there are not many Ax in both of your ranges once you check thru the flop and its a 3bet pot with 2 Aces on board. I think some of the time he would.

So 4 combos AK 4 Combos AQ - he prolly only ever thinly v-bets QQ or KK.
And not always - so some discount on 12 combos.
But he might c-bet AK certainly and AQ some of the time on flop - so some discount on those combos.
So say he take this line half the time with AK,AQ thats 4 combos - then he only needs to be thinly v-betting river or bluffing 1 of 4 times for us to be good.

This leaves aside if he has a 3bet bluff range - how much of that has worse Ax that might take this line - i.e. combos of hands of worse Ax betting for value. - it is a squueeze in rush - where he could expect alot of folds from pretty wide/weak ranges.


Final thought is its unlikely that if we do call its a huge mistake given the odds - but say we fold and he is heavily biased to Ax in his 3bet bluff sq range and/or he is capable of taking this line for thin value all the time with KK,QQ then its a much larger mistake folding in such a large pot.

The thing that makes it close - is that its a MW protected pot.

The thing that makes it close - is that its a MW protected pot.

I agree and if this is a HU spot, I call and just shrug if he has a better A, but he's leading into two players...one who led the flop when checked to, and another who called the flop bet with the PFR live behind.

If we assume that the flop check was from a hand like KK/QQ intending to call, then he's bluff-catching from smaller PPs and total air. If that's the case, then leading the river makes no sense.

However, he could well check the flop with a strong ace, see a bet and a call and opt to trap. The turn checks through and now he's valuebetting since it's likely he'll get at least one call. Either I or the flop leader is going to have an A here. If we give him credit for occasionally having a worse A here, then we should also assume he can have boats and bet those. (referring to A5, A9, A6)

Passive play can show itself in a few ways.

1) Low aggression frequency: A low AFq means that a player is checking and calling more often than raising and betting out.

2) High went to sd %: If a player is going to showdown a lot, it means that they're not betting their value hands often enough and they're not getting weak (and sometimes better) hands to fold often enough.

3) Large gap between the VPIP and PFR: A lack of preflop aggression doesn't always signify a lack of postflop aggression, but it tends to be a good indicator.

Looking at all three of these indicators together can help a ton when you have medium strength holdings against a player's aggressive play and you should be less likely to call light/play back at players liek this simply because their ranges for being aggressive are unbalanced and too "nut-heavy"

yeah i knew it was a HUD based thing - so how low does AFq for you to consider someone passive in FRNLH?

yeah i knew it was a HUD based thing - so how low does AFq for you to consider someone passive in FRNLH?

In my HUD, I have "passive" as an aggression % under 30. However, if someone were playing 75% of their hands, then we'd have to make an adjustment (the higher a player's VPIP, the lower we'd expect their "optimal" Agg% to be since they're going to have weaker holdings overall)

I agree and if this is a HU spot, I call and just shrug if he has a better A, but he's leading into two players...one who led the flop when checked to, and another who called the flop bet with the PFR live behind.

If we assume that the flop check was from a hand like KK/QQ intending to call, then he's bluff-catching from smaller PPs and total air. If that's the case, then leading the river makes no sense.

However, he could well check the flop with a strong ace, see a bet and a call and opt to trap. The turn checks through and now he's valuebetting since it's likely he'll get at least one call. Either I or the flop leader is going to have an A here. If we give him credit for occasionally having a worse A here, then we should also assume he can have boats and bet those. (referring to A5, A9, A6)

Yes but the combinatorical distribution of adding in every Ace whilst it shows more boats in his range - it will have far more worse hands and far more hands that are betting thinly for value. Given the starting point is 20% to begin with that has to incline us towards calling....

Yes but the combinatorical distribution of adding in every Ace whilst it shows more boats in his range - it will have far more worse hands and far more hands that are betting thinly for value. Given the starting point is 20% to begin with that has to incline us towards calling....

Assuming that he bets all of them with equal frequency, yes. It's an incredibly close spot, given the opponents, and I don't hate a call here by any stretch...and against different opponents, positions etc I think calling would be pretty easy.

If its close on the river - what do you think about the merits of betting the turn?

If its close on the river - what do you think about the merits of betting the turn?

I honestly think that the flop action is pretty ill and subsequently makes any aggressive move on anyone's part look exceptionally strong. If the PFR leads out after c/cing the flop, it's gross and I'd just let it go. If CO sees two calls on this board and fires again, it's really hard for him to have a bluff and if I fire, I'm overrepping my hand. A turn bet would get value from CO if he happened to be betting a worse A or air that turned a heart draw but that seems pretty unlikely. Also, PFR will have seen two different players bet out, so I'll assume he's going to only be calling with better Ax hands at this point (and I suppose the other A's that he misclicked preflop)

May I ask what your winrate is over what sample at 100NL Rush/200NL Rush?

May I ask what your winrate is over what sample at 100NL Rush/200NL Rush?

Sure

I've got about 200k+ hands at 100NL+ rush winning overall at about 3bb/100. I made some changes in my schedule (to play better hours) and have been getting some coaching of my own this month. Last 60k hands have been 5bb/100 pretty evenly split between 100 and 200 with a little bit of 400.

Just watching the video, I was shocked about the AT fold as It looked like a blocking bet with QQ or KK.

But your right, I will call down in that spot and those guys with those 11/7 stats never show up with worse it seems like.

Anyways enjoyed the video, are you going do more full ring? if so a deep stacked one would be cool.