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Call or fold?

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goldganesh

Yoda

238 posts
Joined 02/09

villian is 26/22 that seems pretty aggressive with his hands when he plays, i don't have a big sample size of villian. But can i make this call if he shoves all in putting him on some big draw. I have the A spade here giving me backdoor flush outs

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $17.35
BTN: $45.65
SB: $9.50
BB: $60.25
UTG: $21.80
UTG+1: $20.55
MP1: $10.50
Hero (MP2): $49.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with A Spade K Diamond
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($7.75) Q Diamond K Spade 6 Spade (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $5.50, BB raises to $57.75 all in, UTG folds, Hero calls $41.50 all in

Turn: ($101.75) J Heart (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($101.75) 8 Spade (2 players - 2 are all in)

Posted about 1 year ago


Forum Color: White | Black

blinnd

Avatar

63 posts
Joined 08/08

I think you are behind a lot here. Because you have the A of spades there is less combos of flush draws he will shove (Axss) Which means his range is more likely to be AK, KQ, QQ, 66, QTss, JTss.

If we give him only 3 combos of QQ, because he will raise often. Half the combos of Ako(6), again probably raise. And only 2 combos of AKs we are crushed.

Board: Qd Ks 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.672% 15.35% 14.32% 1520 1417.50 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 70.328% 56.01% 14.32% 5545 1417.50 { QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, 66, AdKd, AhKh, QsTs, JsTs, AdKc, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh }

Even if we take out QQ from his range we are still way behind. IF we take out all the AK hands too, you are doing worse. I would need a good read he is doing this with weak flush draws and he never plays hit sets like this to be calling this. His stats seem solid so you can assume he is aware of what he is repping and hence could be trying to look like a flush draw when really strong.

This flop also hits your range pretty well so he should not really be expecting to get many folds by shoving. This is why i think he is also more likely to have a value hand than a draw.

Posted about 1 year ago

dohdohdoh

Prisonbreak

3126 posts
Joined 12/07

This is a funky hand. The overbet says 'I got the nuts, or a draw'. Vs draws we're only a bit ahead....I don't see a problem with a fold here.

KQx boards suck for AK.

Posted about 1 year ago

goldganesh

Yoda

238 posts
Joined 02/09

if he did have a draw here, would you guys ever get it in here or just fold to the overbet every time with tptk?

Posted about 1 year ago

dohdohdoh

Prisonbreak

3126 posts
Joined 12/07

Yeah I'm sticking it in if I *know* he has a draw. Vs a fish with decent aggro I stick it in etc.

Posted about 1 year ago

Millman123

Avatar

162 posts
Joined 01/08

Looks like draw so I would probably call here against aggro player. Stronger hands probably would re-raise less here.

-Millman

Posted about 1 year ago

goldganesh

Yoda

238 posts
Joined 02/09

he ended up having a set of 66. I just dont see much players shove a set for value, i guess one stop value town...lol

Posted about 1 year ago



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