PanicIwould
535 posts
Joined 08/2010
PanicIwould
535 posts
Joined 08/2010
I guess what I am looking for here is getting a better understanding of when it's +ev to call or shove in this spot. I'm getting better at determing this but not against quirky opponents like this. Any Suggestions anyone?
Posted over 1 year ago
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LastFairDeal
34 posts
Joined 06/2010
Afer thinking about/stoving this hand for an hour, I am also curious about what others have to say. Do you have any other reads as to what hands he is 3betting inpos with or how light he will stack off? I would think that flatting here is wrong as you are oop w/ a hand that does not flop well that often. You don't have odds to set mine vs a 3bet. If the flop contains overcards or even if you flop an over pair and he continues to show agg, what do you do? If you 4bet 2.5x to 1.70 and he shoves you DO have enough equity to call vs QQ+,AKs,AK. If you shove, you are NOT ahead of his calling range....are you only getting called by hands that have you crushed? Is this hand too strong to fold?
Posted over 1 year ago
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thuenlolol
107 posts
Joined 02/2010
Thuen88
38 posts
Joined 01/2010
MPHansen
2017 posts
Joined 07/2008
Harleymann51
190 posts
Joined 05/2008
I agree with folding here.
A call would basically be set mining your 1010 and you'll be OOP. I think you do have the odds. Villian has $5 left and that is around 10x your cost of calling. So I think that means with the 1 1/4 bets in the pot you'll need 6 1/4 which is about $3.25 if you flop your set to break even. Of course a call is hit your set or fold as once again you'll be OOP.
And if my odds calculation is off please correct me.
Posted over 1 year ago
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LastFairDeal
34 posts
Joined 06/2010
I agree with folding here.
A call would basically be set mining your 1010 and you'll be OOP. I think you do have the odds. Villian has $5 left and that is around 10x your cost of calling. So I think that means with the 1 1/4 bets in the pot you'll need 6 1/4 which is about $3.25 if you flop your set to break even. Of course a call is hit your set or fold as once again you'll be OOP.
And if my odds calculation is off please correct me.
If we call and MP folds we are getting 1:10.75 implied odds (.52 call to win .97 in pot + 4.62 left in villians stack) We will flop a set about 1:7.5 but, to be +ev, we need higher than this in 3bet pots (1:15+) to make up for the times that villian beats our set with an over set, straight, etc. Also, villian will not always stack off with just an overpair, a missed AK,AQ or a big pair when the board contains an over card. Add on top of this that we are oop and it is even more difficult to get villians stack in.
If we were closing the action vs 2 opponents, then we would be getting 1:20 on our call. I'm not sure that this is enough vs 2 players as we are still oop and there are now 2x as many hands to beat our set.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Harleymann51
190 posts
Joined 05/2008