nick716
499 posts
Joined 06/2008
tclark828
797 posts
Joined 07/2008
I think I'd call here. Folding for 26bbs on the river seems weak. Flush is definitely possible, but its also a great card for him to shove since his line looks just like a flush. Given his stats/stack size he may not know that though and have a flush or a 4 for some reason. I dont think its a snap call, but id look him up here.
Posted over 4 years ago
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dohdohdoh
3119 posts
Joined 12/2007
tclark828
797 posts
Joined 07/2008
Maybe this is a fold here.... IF he had 78 on the flop he would most likely raise it, and his line does look exactly like a flush. Given he has less than 50bbs, i doubt he is thinking that he can bluff the flush. Do you ever overbet shove the turn here?
Posted over 4 years ago
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guittarrzan
40 posts
Joined 10/2008
This is probably a crying call, especially given the size of the pot. You only have to be good here less than half the time to make this a profitable call and you never know what these monkeys will show up with. Obviously it looks like a flush though.
The bigger question in my mind, is why bet 2/3 pot on the turn? The board is pretty drawy and you are letting him see the river cheap. I think betting near pot on this board is a much better play. Any thoughts on that?
Posted over 4 years ago
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nick716
499 posts
Joined 06/2008
Do you ever overbet shove the turn here?
Ehh...sometimes.
This is probably a crying call, especially given the size of the pot. You only have to be good here less than half the time to make this a profitable call and you never know what these monkeys will show up with. Obviously it looks like a flush though.
The bigger question in my mind, is why bet 2/3 pot on the turn? The board is pretty drawy and you are letting him see the river cheap. I think betting near pot on this board is a much better play. Any thoughts on that?
I don't think I let him see a cheap river. in this case he was drawing to a flush and was only getting less that 2.5 to 1. I'm no expert on odds but doesn't he need at least 4 to 1 to draw? In hindsight being that he would probably pay incorrectly to see the river regardless, overbetting the turn may have been best here. But I don't think the size of my turn bet was mathematically incorrect.
Posted over 4 years ago
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entelechy
1244 posts
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tclark828
797 posts
Joined 07/2008
I dont think your turn bet was bad, you're right with the 4:1 for proper odds. You're better off betting almost pot in these situations. They're never folding their draws no matter the size of the bet, so its just more money in your pocket the 75% of the time they miss.
Posted over 4 years ago
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GonnaBe
61 posts
Joined 01/2009
New to the site but just seems like a fish that hit in spite of his poor odds calling turn. Hate it because we have all seen these guys roll over some BS flush with rags that he played from the BB. I agree, can't fold for the price even though fairly certain he shows a lucky catch flush.
Posted over 4 years ago
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nick716
499 posts
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dohdohdoh
3119 posts
Joined 12/2007