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200nl - Should I call?

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nick716

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499 posts
Joined 06/2008

Villain is 40/11/3 after 120 hands.

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 20698
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: $42.00
MP2: $200.00
Hero (CO): $356.30
BTN: $91.50
SB: $451.55
BB: $92.95
UTG: $79.95
UTG+1: $205.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with A Club A Heart
4 folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) 4 Club 7 Diamond 8 Diamond (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10

Turn: ($33.00) K Heart (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $24.00, BB calls $24

River: ($81.00) 4 Diamond (2 players)
BB bets $52.95, Hero ?

Is this a snap-call? The fact that the board paired has me thinking that I may have just counterfeited him, but why would he wait until the flush comes to play back at me? Is this usually a flush?

Posted over 4 years ago

tclark828

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797 posts
Joined 07/2008

I think I'd call here. Folding for 26bbs on the river seems weak. Flush is definitely possible, but its also a great card for him to shove since his line looks just like a flush. Given his stats/stack size he may not know that though and have a flush or a 4 for some reason. I dont think its a snap call, but id look him up here.

Posted over 4 years ago

dohdohdoh

Avatar for dohdohdoh

3119 posts
Joined 12/2007

Yeah it's debatable. The donk bet is strength.

If he bet 2/3 or the pot, I'd fold.

His bet is really tricky in size...ummmm...we're flipping a coin here in my opinion.

Posted over 4 years ago

tclark828

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797 posts
Joined 07/2008

Maybe this is a fold here.... IF he had 78 on the flop he would most likely raise it, and his line does look exactly like a flush. Given he has less than 50bbs, i doubt he is thinking that he can bluff the flush. Do you ever overbet shove the turn here?

Posted over 4 years ago

guittarrzan

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40 posts
Joined 10/2008

This is probably a crying call, especially given the size of the pot. You only have to be good here less than half the time to make this a profitable call and you never know what these monkeys will show up with. Obviously it looks like a flush though.

The bigger question in my mind, is why bet 2/3 pot on the turn? The board is pretty drawy and you are letting him see the river cheap. I think betting near pot on this board is a much better play. Any thoughts on that?

Posted over 4 years ago

nick716

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499 posts
Joined 06/2008

Do you ever overbet shove the turn here?



Ehh...sometimes.

This is probably a crying call, especially given the size of the pot. You only have to be good here less than half the time to make this a profitable call and you never know what these monkeys will show up with. Obviously it looks like a flush though.

The bigger question in my mind, is why bet 2/3 pot on the turn? The board is pretty drawy and you are letting him see the river cheap. I think betting near pot on this board is a much better play. Any thoughts on that?



I don't think I let him see a cheap river. in this case he was drawing to a flush and was only getting less that 2.5 to 1. I'm no expert on odds but doesn't he need at least 4 to 1 to draw? In hindsight being that he would probably pay incorrectly to see the river regardless, overbetting the turn may have been best here. But I don't think the size of my turn bet was mathematically incorrect.

Posted over 4 years ago

entelechy

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1244 posts
Joined 02/2007

I call, but I wince as I hit the call button. But I am not folding this.

Posted over 4 years ago

tclark828

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797 posts
Joined 07/2008

I dont think your turn bet was bad, you're right with the 4:1 for proper odds. You're better off betting almost pot in these situations. They're never folding their draws no matter the size of the bet, so its just more money in your pocket the 75% of the time they miss.

Posted over 4 years ago

GonnaBe

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61 posts
Joined 01/2009

New to the site but just seems like a fish that hit in spite of his poor odds calling turn. Hate it because we have all seen these guys roll over some BS flush with rags that he played from the BB. I agree, can't fold for the price even though fairly certain he shows a lucky catch flush.

Posted over 4 years ago

nick716

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499 posts
Joined 06/2008

dohdohdoh

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3119 posts
Joined 12/2007

He flips over Ad9d.



Back to my 'coin-flipping' statement. I think when it's a coin-flip decision, we just fold...because we don't flip coins...instead we try to use skill to win $.

Posted over 4 years ago




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