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Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 577117
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $25.00
Hero (MP1): $27.65
MP2: $29.30
CO: $24.90
BTN: $25.00
SB: $35.70
BB: $34.60
UTG: $15.65

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($1.85) T J Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP2 raises to $5.50, Hero??

Villain is a 25/14 over 30 hands. Small sample so every other stat is pretty irrelevant. His fold to cbet was 1 out 4 fwiw.


Ok I think this is a pretty common spot regardless of the limit you are playing and just wanted a little insight on how you play these spots. So I would say he is pretty much a monkey, the problem is anything he calls with on this board has decent equity vs us a lot of the time, not all of the time but connecting hands or flushes. So here is a stoved range I have put together.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

108,900 games 0.044 secs 2,475,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Jc Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.738% 52.97% 00.77% 57687 834.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 46.262% 45.50% 00.77% 49545 834.00 { QQ-TT, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 8c4c, 8c3c, 7c4c, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }

So on the flop we are most likely ahead of his calling/raising range so my question is do we just flat the flop here and play the turn? Are we planning to c/f a club turn depending on bet size? Are we planning to c/f the turn on a K or a 9? And in relation to folding based on bad turns and bet size are we willing to call a 1/2 psb on the turn and then if the river bricks off are we going to call up to another 1/2 psb? Thank you for your time and responses.

The problem with a hand like this is that you may be ahead of his flop range but you are miles behind his getting it in range on the flop. This makes 3bet/getting it in on the flop a negative EV play.

At the same time if you just flat his raise and play the turn there are just soooo many bad cards that will roll off - and you will have no clue what to do. Therefore I probably just fold it here.

Your sample on him is a bit too small to make any judgements, I often look at my own table stats for that session and they can really look crazy over such a small sample.

Agree, you did pot it into this board from MP on the flop. AA is no longer even the top of our range and it's unlikely we get this to SD from OOP (in pos I might peel but even then it's very meh).

Even if you actually had a read he was crazy you still are not that happy.

The board is super connected and for me it's an easy, but crying fold. He could call you here w TJ, JQ, TT, JJ here. Flat calling is the worst in my opinion, but you're not in a good shape at all. Okay, he could bluff you out, but just count how many times you were bluffed out in these situation and how many times they've got monsters here. I'd vote for the latest.