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Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($365.29)
MP1 ($100.67)
Hero (MP2) ($141)
MP3 ($38.90)
CO ($126.99)
Button ($146.55)
SB ($99.50)
BB ($29)
UTG ($191.44)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 K K
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 bets $4.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $16, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls $11.50

Flop: ($34.50) 10, 8, 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $20.25, UTG+1 calls $20.25

Turn: ($75) 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero ??


Hi all,

in the last couple of weeks/month I have to deal with a really bad run and I guess it's not only
bad run and there are some bigger leaks too. So I've decided to post some of my hands and check
my thought process. Thanks in advance for any comment to my hands.

The Limper was a weaker spot and UTG+1 isoraises here. He has a 9% EP open Range over 1.1k
hands and a fold to 3bet from 20 in this position (he fold 1 out of 5 times). Overall he plays 19/14 with 8% 3bet and 28% fold to 3bet.

With 100bb Stacks I would like to flat here, because I want to play a pot with the fish. But, with
the low fold to 3bet and the deeper stacks, I decided to 3bet and the reg snap calls. Flop looks good
and I made a cbet. His preflop calling range should be something like 22-QQ, AK and some suited
connectors ... reasonable range? So, after my cbet I expect a fold from most of his pairs, his
connectors and AK stuff. What's the plan for the turn now? Is there any chance to not broke in
this spot? Would he always stack of with his JJ/QQ here? I mean, my doublebarrel look so strong
that it is really hard for him to call/ship here those hands. Because of my bad run, I start to see the
nuts at every corner. I was bit lost at the turn and didn't know what the best play is.

-Kenny

Why do you say you are deep? In the HH above, I see 100$ for hero, (100bb deep).

If you are 100bb deep, turn is a standard bet for value. Bet half pot here.

If you are deeper, then this could be a different story. When deep, pairs goes down in value and this is more important to pot control to avoid losing a monster pot than to protect your hand against draws. So checking back the turn could be good.

Also, this would be interesting to know how vilains play postflop in 3 bet pots. Some players call super wide pre and turn a lot of hands into a bluff.

Also, if you say that you never get value from anything else in this spot, it could mean that you are unbalanced and only have value hands. For example, how do you play AK/AQ vs this vilain in this exact same spot? What is your 3 betting range?

Also, if you are deep, you can make your 3 bet bigger pre, something closer to 4x. Like I said, the deeper you are, the worse a pair becomes (relative hand strengh). If someone wants to set mine or call with SCs make him pay for it. Also, your decisions postflop will be easier with a lower SPR.

I'd bet in basically any situation, no matter if it's 100 or 150 or 200bb deep.
especially deep it gets more likely that they flat JJ or QQ oop and you have to value bet against those hands.
He shouldn't have too many Tx hands in his range.

i don't like your preflop or flop sizing (too big) but shipping now seems like the only option to me.

do you ever click it back here and induce a river bet? I seem to get shoved on here with bluffs and 3/4 pot bets for value at 25nl and 50nl pretty frequently.

First of all, thanks for all comments.

@MaskedManQc

Sorry, I had some trouble to convert the hand from cake for deuced cracked and the my stacksize is
not correct. The effective stacksize was 140bb in this hand.

Villains stats in 3bet pots are:

fold to cbet flop = 25% (8)
fold to turn cbet = 100% (1),
raise cbet flop = 13% (8)

small sample especially for the turn stat.

With AK I would check back the flop, because I see him setmine a big part of the time and
guess he wouldn't fold a lot. I could also find a reason for a call preflop with AK, because I
would like to have the fish in the pot. AQ I would just flat. So, yes my valuerange seems to
be really narrow in this spot and I should loosen up a bit, especially against this playertype.
What's your play with AK/AQ type of hands in this spot?

I agree to the bigger size preflop. He isn't folding a lot so we should start punish him and try to
make it bigger.

@Poemmel

The question is, will villain stack of JJ and QQ with this stacksize? My range looks so strong,
that it should be really hard for him and I thought about check behind the turn and get some
value at the river.

@snarble5

the stacksize in my post wasn't correct. With 140bb do you still think my size (Preflop/Flop) is
to big?

@johnnykakes241

That's exactly what I thought about, too.

@Poemmel
The question is, will villain stack of JJ and QQ with this stacksize? My range looks so strong,
that it should be really hard for him and I thought about check behind the turn and get some
value at the river.

if he doesn't call with QQ/JJ we should just 3bet him and fire off our whole stack postflop all the time and he is not going to call ever
I remember dr.giggy from bluefire mentioning in a video that when he was playing 400NL in the deep games back in the days he just 3bet pre a lot and then fired off his whole 200bb stack and nobody ever called him without a set. He made a shitload of money doing that ^^

especially after your huge 3bet he shouldn't have a single T in his range.
the only time we lose is basically if he slowplayed AA preflop, which is unlikely for most 100Nl players with 100bb stacks and doesn't happen 140bb deep at all I think.

your plan with checking behind turn and betting the river might not be too bad though.
especially 140bb deep he is going to eliminate Tx and KK/AA out of our range a lot.
so he might call lighter on the river (if he is capable of handreading, if not just bet the turn and he's going to call because he has two pair ).
but more often than not bet/bet/check is better than bet/check/bet.
because usually our range for 2barreling is wider and includes more bluffs than our bet/check/bet range, so we also want our value bets to be on the turn. and after betting two streets we have also the option to shove the river sometimes a really nice card rolls off.

regarding betsizes I also don't like preflop and flop.
especially 100bb deep it would be a huge mistake imo, but with 140bb I still don't like it too much.
we rely on value from TT-QQ a lot and if we make it too big he might just fold those and we isolate us against AA.
I'd definitely fold pretty much anything than AA/KK vs such a raise, because usually this is just a big betsizing tell and bluffranges aren't existent (especially not given positions).
If you were oop it might be better, cause his calling range widens once he is IP.
I'd make it 13 or 14$ maximum pre.

On the flop there is no need to bet bigger than half pot (which is the case in most of the spots in a 3bet pot).
17$ looks totally fine to me.
We still give ourselfes all the options to get the money in, we don't have to protect from anything, cause he has only 2 outs all the time.

First of all, thanks for all comments.

@MaskedManQc

Sorry, I had some trouble to convert the hand from cake for deuced cracked and the my stacksize is
not correct. The effective stacksize was 140bb in this hand.

Villains stats in 3bet pots are:

fold to cbet flop = 25% (8)
fold to turn cbet = 100% (1),
raise cbet flop = 13% (8)

small sample especially for the turn stat.

With AK I would check back the flop, because I see him setmine a big part of the time and
guess he wouldn't fold a lot. I could also find a reason for a call preflop with AK, because I
would like to have the fish in the pot. AQ I would just flat. So, yes my valuerange seems to
be really narrow in this spot and I should loosen up a bit, especially against this playertype.
What's your play with AK/AQ type of hands in this spot?

I agree to the bigger size preflop. He isn't folding a lot so we should start punish him and try to
make it bigger.

I think that Poemmel explained basically what I was about to answer.

First, this guy don't fold to 3 bet a lot and don't fold much to cbet in 3 bet pot. So I think that your range should be adjusted to have a depolarized range vs him. 3 bet for value wider and value bet wider OTF and OTT. When you look at this stats, we can conclude that not only he is set mining, but he also calls a lot of flops with medium strengh hands.

For AK, AQ type of hands, I like to double barrel a lot with them in 3 bet pots because we have blockers. Also, I try to pick up players that will fold a lot to flop or turn cbet often enough to make this play profitable. Against most player it is very profitable and it also balance your range pretty well.

Thank you for your this detailed post, Poemmel!

It definetely makes sense and I have to think about my play in this spot. As I said in my first post
there is a big lack of confidence and I guess there are some leaks I have to fix. But there is still one thing.

Let's go through the scenario with smaller sizes:

I 3bet to 13$ and UTG+1 calls. The pot now is 28.5$ at the flop. Now we cbet around half
pot (14$) and get a call. We have 56.5$ in the pot and 99.5$ left in our stack. So,
a bet for value shoud be standard because he would call hands like JJ/QQ. But, what's the
plan if he ship the turn vs our bet? I mean, I agree that JJ/QQ are in his range and he could
often call, but I do not expect to see a shove from this type of hands. Is it a spot where you
like "bet 27$ / fold" ?

I'm also interessted in MaskedmanQcs opinion now. He seems to have a different approach
in this spot. Especially because he would like to make it 4x with deeper stacks.

Thx to you guys!

I 3bet to 13$ and UTG+1 calls. The pot now is 28.5$ at the flop. Now we cbet around half
pot (14$) and get a call. We have 56.5$ in the pot and 99.5$ left in our stack. So,
a bet for value shoud be standard because he would call hands like JJ/QQ. But, what's the
plan if he ship the turn vs our bet? I mean, I agree that JJ/QQ are in his range and he could
often call, but I do not expect to see a shove from this type of hands. Is it a spot where you
like "bet 27$ / fold" ?

once we are 140bb deep we can't eliminate Tx and 88/33 totally out of his range, cause some players like to setmine or call stuff like TJs or T9s oop (which is both a huge mistake imo and which is another good reason not to 3bet so big).

it's still a super easy bet on flop and turn, 14$ and 27$ is good.
if he c/raises now it's a pretty easy equation: we need to pay around 75bb into a pot of 175bb, so we get 2,33:1 on a call.
That means we need around 30% equity to justify a call.

If he ships it in with JJ/QQ we have a snapcall.

Board: Th 8s 3d Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.964% 52.96% 00.00% 3216 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 47.036% 47.04% 00.00% 2856 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88, 33, JTs, T9s }

if he doesn't, we have a snapfold

Board: Th 8s 3d Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 06.612% 06.61% 00.00% 192 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 93.388% 93.39% 00.00% 2712 0.00 { TT, 88, 33, JTs, T9s }

We could play around, saying he shoves QQ half the time, never JJ and whatever, but usually it's very heavily weighted to example 2 and we are in terrible shape.

There could be an argument made for him not having JTs and T9s, cause he is a nit, but even then I think we can't call cause 140bb deep he is just not shoving QQ or JJ ever, so we just look into a even narrower range of TT, 88 and 33.

All in all I think we won't see a c/raise on the turn all too often. If he slowplayed the flop with a set he has now a boat and is likely to just call it down, cause he doesn't want you to blow your overpairs out of the pot and his hand is pretty invulnerable.

--> bet/fold turn seems really nice
it obviously sucks to get shoved on on the turn, but we already won the hand, cause he made a terrible preflop call and we made a good two barrel and a good fold.

@snarble5

the stacksize in my post wasn't correct. With 140bb do you still think my size (Preflop/Flop) is
to big?

140 isnt that much deeper, i still make same flop/turn betsize and there is just a bigger river bet (if we can't get all in by the river, i change my sizing. i agree w/ everything poemmel said.

I'm also interessted in MaskedmanQcs opinion now. He seems to have a different approach
in this spot. Especially because he would like to make it 4x with deeper stacks.

I mainly agree with what other said, I think you got quality advices there.

The only thing is the preflop bet size. When deep, this is a little different and we can make it bigger preflop. Value of pairs goes down in value postlfop, so we should try to extract as much value as possible preflop and that this is even more true if vilain is willing to call wide and try to set mine etc.

Also, if the pot is bigger preflop, the decisions will be easier with an overpair with a small SPR.

Ok, great ... thanks to all of you for your comments!