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Villian is a a very spewy very bad reg. 17/10 Cbet F/T/R - 79/58/44 - 34% WTSD 4.2K Hands

I call pre because I have done extensive work on his game and also have the added benefit that I am unknown to him as im on a new skin/screen name. Probably only has a couple hundred hands on me, I dont know, his HUD probably has me at like 15/14. No history on this SN.

Most pertinent reads on him are:

OFten XCs OTR with TP type hands - THINK ABOUT SOME OVERBET RIVER BLUFFS
1/2 PSB, esp OTR seem weak bluffs/Bbets or Thin Value - he is a staion but I think I can bluff him off these river bets?? ------ YES x1
1.2 PSb cbets seems weaker - BE WARY BIG RIVER BETS 2/3 PSB+ - often SDs with bluffs OTR
BIG BETS SEEM TO INDICATE STRENGHT - ESP On T/R -

Cassava Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1823256
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $63.08
SB: $158.58
BB: $62.85
UTG: $91.99
UTG+1: $44.75
MP1: $59.54
MP2: $50.00
Hero (CO): $57.14

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Q 9
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1

Flop: ($5.25) Q 4 3 (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $2.62, Hero calls $2.62, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($10.49) 5 (2 players)
MP2 bets $5.24, Hero calls $5.24

River: ($20.97) A (2 players)
MP2 bets $10.48, Hero raises to $47.78, MP2 folds

Final Pot: $41.93
Hero mucks Q 9
Hero wins $2.54
(Rake: $39.39)


I thought this was a good spot to test out my reads on him. Thoughts?

Even against a pretty bad player, I don't call pre here. He only raises 10% so his raising range will be pretty strong. You also have 4 people behind to act, and have to fold probably 100% of the time if someone 3bets. I would generally 3bet or fold here - why not 3bet?

As played, I suppose with your river read you are inclined to bluff, however he did bet even though the flush draw got there, which would lead me to believe he's stronger than usual. You should have a lot of AQ and flushes in your range, so for him to 3 barrel is stronger here than usual.

Sorry I should of given a little more information.

Pre I think is fine because there is zero chance of a squeeze on this table and BU was a super nit so effectively im on the BU. Also his open raise from MP is actually 23%.

As far as post flop. He cant have AQ in his range because that would of given him a pair on the flop which we know he doesnt have, as per my notes, as he bets 2/3 pot with TP+ F/T then either checkcalls river or makes these 1/2psb bets. Likewise he can't have a flush on the river because again he bets 2/3pot+ with any value hand better than TP on the river. So the strongest hand he can have on the river given his tendancies is Ax

I dont 3bet because he doesnt seem to fold to 3bets or cbets and is much more likely to do something random in a 3bet pot. he will often do things like check shove bottom pair on the turn etc which makes even double barrelling difficult. Therefore my strategy with him is to try and play as many pots in position with him and use the reads I have on him (which are extensive but ive only included the most relevant ones for this thread)

Alot of the time I have the best hand here but I think getting him to fold Ax or QJ/KQ (although Qx is unlikely as per notes which really just leaves Ax) has a greater ev than calling here? I dont know?

First, vs a good player that can read hands, your line could be good because you will definitely have flushes in your range here and his river bet could mean weakness or thin value.

A good reg that is that aggro on each street is a good target to bluff, as his barreling range will probably contain a lot of weak hands (gutshots, overcards, missed draws, low or middle pairs turned into a bluff) that will fold to pressure. Here, a lot of draws got there, so even vs a good player, without at least a blocker to the nuts (A ) I would not bluff raise river.

Here, when I read : "very spewy very bad reg" and I see WTSD 34%, it screams "Don't bluff this guy" and nothing mentionned above apply.

I was also thinking that this player is not a good opponent to run bluffs on, but you have a confirmed read on him so go for it.

NOW that we that out of the way.... it makes no sense to bluff here. I understand your argument for bluffing, basically you are winning the pot 100% of the time instead of most of the time when you call.

However...

As per your reads on him you have the best hand almost always. He x/c top pair on the river, and bets 1/2p with bluffs or weak hands. If he had a queen he's betting bigger on the flop.

So why not just call and confirm your 1/2p read a little better before committing a whole stack on a wet board. You only have to be wrong once for the bluff to be a huge mistake, but calling here is never a big mistake.

If I was you I would reserve the bluff line for pots where you have low equity on the river.

So why not just call and confirm your 1/2p read a little better before committing a whole stack on a wet board. You only have to be wrong once for the bluff to be a huge mistake, but calling here is never a big mistake.

If I was you I would reserve the bluff line for pots where you have low equity on the river.

That is good advice and it is how a river range should be constructed here.

How would we do an EV calc to compare calling the river to shoving? (assuming based on notes he cant ever have more than 1 pair by the river). Id like to do this properly, Im sure the EV or call is somewhere around breakeven.

I was a little converned about his WTS% but one thing I have noticed through doing extensive player reviews lately is just how important it is to not put too much weight into stats, Many stats, inc WTS % can vary a fair bit depending on style. I think a higher WT S in a player who is laggier post flop is not so much an indication of stationy tendancies as compared to a loose passive player with the same %.

After reviewing his SD hands I think this guy is a bit stationy in certain spots (usually though when taking passive showdown bound lines) but I think a 34% WTS is a but missleading and is probably a little higher due to the kind of lines he takes and the often bad flop/turn bluffs he makes before giving up in the hand.

The problem here is that if you're shoving here with 2nd pair, and you're shoving when you have the nuts, and you shoving when you have complete air, Then you're shoving 100% of the time in this spot. Even a complete doof will catch onto that.

Maybe I'm thinking about this wrong but I'd think calling the river is +EV compared to shoving as, based on reads, he's folding w/ less than TP so you don't make any more money and if he only calls w/ better than TP you lose more when you shove.

Maybe I'm thinking about this wrong but I'd think calling the river is +EV compared to shoving as, based on reads, he's folding w/ less than TP so you don't make any more money and if he only calls w/ better than TP you lose more when you shove.

The argument that shoving is +EV is based on the fact that he has a read on villain, that villain doesn't use this bet size with a strong hand.