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Merge Network $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1816962
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Villian is 33/8 over 81 hands, 63% fold to CB, 13% raise CB (both CB stats sample of 8 hands)

So my main question is to CB on the flop or ck w/ some showdown value?

BB: $7.28
UTG: $10.00
UTG+1: $9.85
UTG+2: $12.26
MP1: $9.67
MP2: $15.02
Hero (CO): $14.98
BTN: $10.44
SB: $3.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T A
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) 9 T Q (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($1.05) 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52

River: ($2.09) T (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $0.60,

Hero????

He bets 1/2 pot on turn and less than 1/3 pot on river. Is this a Jack looking to extract a call or a weak/scared Queen/two pair?

against a 33/8 I would value bet the flop.
you can get called by so much worse made hands and there are also a ton of draws.
KT, JT, T8, T7, T6s, random Jx, A9, K9, 98, 97, 96, 88 + FDs

river is a fold I think.
he can have tons of hands that beat you, any J, T9, QT, T8, 88, 99.
the only hands that he might be betting and you beat are probably Q9 and sometimes KQ or AQ.
we get a bit more than 4:1, so we have to be good around 19% of the time to make this a call.

Board: Qd Td 9s 8s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.266% 19.27% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 80.734% 80.73% 00.00% 88 0.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KJs+, Q9s+, J6s+, T8s+, AQo-AJo, KJo, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+ }

this is the very very best case, him betting anytime with AQ and any KQs and him not having J5s-J2s (which he might also have in his range).
so this would be at best a breakeven call.

if we say he only bets AQs on the river, we are totally crushed.

Board: Qd Td 9s 8s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.111% 11.11% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 88.889% 88.89% 00.00% 88 0.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KJs, Q9s+, J6s+, T8s+, AJo, KJo, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+ }

against a 33/8 I would value bet the flop.
you can get called by so much worse made hands and there are also a ton of draws.
KT, JT, T8, T7, T6s, random Jx, A9, K9, 98, 97, 96, 88 + FDs

So when you hit a spade on the turn you barrel? If not what if it's a less straighten spade?

What do you do on the turn complete brick like a 4h?

Or is your plan to bet for protection/thin value and then one and done?

Good explanation of your ranges and why you muck the river.

I bet a blank turn for value again. A lot of value against draws and worse 2nd pairs might also call again.
If that blank is a spade, better for us

On this turn I wouldn't bet again.
In my first post I talked about the hands that might call us on the flop, if you look at this range, you'll see that most of this range now either has us beat or doesn't call again.

i think you played it ok, could have done other things but should easily be +ev and i would call given those odds

i think you played it ok, could have done other things but should easily be +ev and i would call given those odds

what else would you put into his range to make it a call, other than my ranges above?

I would discount a few of those pocket pairs and larger suited broadway. His preflop play isnt conducive to having AQs or JJ in that spot, wouldnt you think? I would think that even a 33/8 would include those hands in his PFR range. I know it wont affect the equity too much, but its just a thought. What do you think?

I would discount a few of those pocket pairs and larger suited broadway. His preflop play isnt conducive to having AQs or JJ in that spot, wouldnt you think? I would think that even a 33/8 would include those hands in his PFR range. I know it wont affect the equity too much, but its just a thought. What do you think?

yeah, definitely right.
but those players are often unpredictable
AQ and JJ/TT might definitely be in his opening range, but once it comes to 99/AJ or lower I see them limp/calling way more often than raising.
Not including AQ and JJ/TT makes it even less a call, cause AQ are way more combos.

Board: Qd Td 9s 8s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.815% 14.81% 00.00% 16 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 85.185% 85.19% 00.00% 92 0.00 { 99-88, AJs, Ad2d, As2s, KJs+, QJs, J6s+, T8s+, 76s, 6d5d, 6s5s, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQh, AdQs, AhQs, AJo, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs, KJo, QJo, J8o+, T8o+ }


So this time I included half of the AQo combos, half the KQo combos and any KQs combos (and I included 76s which is definitely in his range for playing like this, but I forgot it before). I also included 65ss, 65dd, A2dd, A2ss for the sake of him maybe having busted FDs.

If we remove KQ and AQ out of his range (which I think is very likely), we are totally crushed.

That would seem a bit more accurate to me. So yea, all in all i think this is an easy fold. We're getting 4:1 on our money and we need 20% equity against that range or better to breakeven.
Not close enough to justify a call.

I choose not to bet the flop because I'm not much into building a pot wit medium strength hand and he's shown he's at least capable of a C/R. I think betting with the intention of double barreling this passive player when we have showdown value is bitter sweet. Sweet that it increases FE but bitter because can he really fold a draw? Would he raise the turn on a wet board with a hand that beats us?

As played I thought the river looked like Q9 or 89 (weak two pair so I called)

I think the explanation behind why the river is a fold is golden and I am going to have to break open poker stove to really make this sink in.

As played I thought the river looked like Q9 or 89 (weak two pair so I called)

89 is screwed on this river and even a fish realises that a lot of the time.
Q9 also isn't worth alot, given the T paired.

and as for building the pot with a medium strength hand: thats not what we do, we value bet!
we bet to get called by worse.
yes, it's a somewhat thin value bet, cause there are also a lot of hands that beat us and a lot of hands have a good amount of equity against our hand, but it's still a value bet.
We don't bloat the pot with a medium strength hand, we get money in against a range that we beat.
Doesn't sound that wrong this way, does it?

I also don't understand this bitter sweet thing ^^ Why is it sweet, that we increase fold equity?
In fact, we have little to no fold equity if this player hit some part of this flop.
The sweet thing is that we DON'T have fold equity and can value bet against all sorts of hands.
We don't want him to fold Jx or a flushdraw on the turn, we beat that stuff and we are not going to put money in if he binks the river.

And why do you bother, that he might check/raise us on the flop or turn?
We are absolutely screwed against his c/raising range, we have a super easy fold. It's absolutely no disaster to fold 2nd pair to a check/raise. So why worry about it?

89 is screwed on this river and even a fish realises that a lot of the time.
Q9 also isn't worth alot, given the T paired. (I completely agree, just what I thought during the hand more due to bet size than anything else, but really he's got a jack or boat almost all of the time here)

and as for building the pot with a medium strength hand: thats not what we do, we value bet!
we bet to get called by worse.
yes, it's a somewhat thin value bet, cause there are also a lot of hands that beat us and a lot of hands have a good amount of equity against our hand, but it's still a value bet.
We don't bloat the pot with a medium strength hand, we get money in against a range that we beat.
Doesn't sound that wrong this way, does it? (I agree that its a bet for thin value and that option is what I am mulling over most, value bet or not the pot is still growing in size and I still have a medium strength hand).

I also don't understand this bitter sweet thing ^^ Why is it sweet, that we increase fold equity?
In fact, we have little to no fold equity if this player hit some part of this flop.
The sweet thing is that we DON'T have fold equity and can value bet against all sorts of hands.
We don't want him to fold Jx or a flushdraw on the turn, we beat that stuff and we are not going to put money in if he binks the river. (You make plenty of points that have changed my mind, and I am leaning more towards betting for value like you suggest)

And why do you bother, that he might check/raise us on the flop or turn?
We are absolutely screwed against his c/raising range, we have a super easy fold. It's absolutely no disaster to fold 2nd pair to a check/raise. So why worry about it?(I agree easy fold, but if he realizes that we can't do much against his C/R range can't he do it with draws/air? Guess a 33/8 doesn't get credit for thinking much about that type of thing though huh)

My response is in () in the quote

a 33/8 doesn't get credit for thinking that much about us having a really hard time facing a check/raise, nor does any of the players on 10NL imo

a 33/8 doesn't get credit for thinking that much about us having a really hard time facing a check/raise, nor does any of the players on 10NL imo

I am inclined to agree