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Is this play terrible if I haven't played many hands? maybe I am just lucky that the board turned out so favorable
there are only 12 combos of AJ he can have and even that hand is folding the river some part of the time especially when there is no history? but some percentage of the time the 4th flush card won't hit and then my fold percentage is decreased somewhat it seems
maybe I should have bet more on the turn to set up the river shove?

View hand 1811277
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $14.99 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 4
Hero (SB): $9.08 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 21, 3B: 9, AF: 2.3, Hands: 515
BB: $10.90 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 11, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 46
UTG: $11.61 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 23, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 26
UTG+1: $5.27 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 4, 3B: 8, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
MP: $9.70 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 4.0, Hands: 65
CO: $5.40 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 13

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A 8
4 folds, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.90) 3 3 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.67, BTN calls $0.67

Turn: ($2.24) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.68, BTN calls $1.68

River: ($5.60) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.33, BTN folds

Final Pot: $5.60
(Rake: $0.28)

No need to do this at 10nl.

Looks like your trying to bluff a passive fish, super small sample but once he calls the flop i'd be done.

This could turn into a costly leak imo

Stan

Thanks. Yeah it seems some players will not fold 22-TT easily. My thought was that he might fold even AJ, TT-22 maybe 50% of the time? the break even calculation is easily done so I need a fold 53% of the time
0=(EV+)-(EV-)
say I bet $4 into 5.60 on the river then I need a fold 41.7% of the time to break even, but then it seems AJ is calling almost 100% of the time and TT calling percentage increases and one could weight the hand strengths based on position preflop
I mean against a player you don't have many hands on or history it seems your fold equity increases but it's hard to quantify this in numbers

yes maybe this is a total spew taking such a thin edge here... I mostly have been playing FR SNGs up to $30 where there is more equity/cash at the higher blind levels

I find myself deep like at 200-500BB lately. are there some good videos on deep stack play or books?
there's Sklansky's NLH cash game book and theory of poker

Hi! if you want to work on equity calculations and discuss poker I can send you my skype/email!

it seems weird to me, that in thinking about his range you only talk about AJ, and then TT. Surely, many other Jx hands are much more likely then both of them, since even fish will raise those pre some of the time, and also because there are just way more combos

So you think his range is weighted much more towards Jx hands?
can you make these kinds of decisions based on equity alone and you don't need large databases on players?
how does one use a WTSD stat? I guess that people will fold here more than 50%, but clearly his range is crushing me on the turn...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,064 games 0.003 secs 3,021,333 games/sec

Board: 3d 3c Jc 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.406% 89.28% 02.13% 8092 193.00 { TT-22, AJs-A2s, KJs, KcTc, Kc9c, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, QJs, QcTc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, J2s+, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Tc5c, Tc4c, Tc3c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 9c5c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 8c5c, 8c4c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 7c4c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 4c3c, AKo, AJo, KJo, QJo, J6o+ }
Hand 1: 08.594% 06.47% 02.13% 586 193.00 { Ad8h }

though I am ahead on the flop vs a wide range like-
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

690,030 games 0.012 secs 57,502,500 games/sec

Board: 3d 3c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.448% 40.96% 04.48% 282669 30933.50 { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, AJo-A2o, KJo-K2o, Q6o+, J6o+, T6o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 54.552% 50.07% 04.48% 345494 30933.50 { Ad8h }


---

690,030 games 0.010 secs 69,003,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 3c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.448% 40.96% 04.48% 282669 30933.50 { TT-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 83s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, AJo-A2o, KJo-K2o, Q6o+, J6o+, T6o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 54.552% 50.07% 04.48% 345494 30933.50 { Ad8h }

should I bet size on the flop to represent my 55/45% equity advantage or maybe a little more to get a fold? I would guess it is more profitable to bet a little more to get the fold
it's interesting if the board was JcTc9h then my A8o is 50/50 on the flop vs his wide limping range

I'm not sure if I'd raise here preflop.
We basically don't have any info about BTN other than limping this time.
We don't know anything about his folding or calling down tendencies postflop, A8o is a shitty hand and we are oop (if he was on the CO and we on the BTN, I'd definitely raise).

I like to complete the SB in those spots.
Yeah, this looks exploitable, but BB doesn't seem to be too aggressive, so he is just going to take a free flop a shitload of the time.
We get 5:1 on a call, we can value bet postflop if we hit, or just c/f if we miss.

If our stats/reads show that he is folding postflop a lot after some kind of samplesize, we should definitely be raising there. If they show a low fold to cbet, turn cbet, high WTSD, etc we should still be completing the SB and valuebet the shit out of him postflop.

I don't think there's any reason to bomb the river.

Bluffing is pretty good on 4 flush boards against fish, but no reason to bet big. They will call with a club and fold everything else usually.

thanks very much! would you say that there is still some value in 3 betting early to have an aggressive image? it seems people tend to be more careful/passive vs me. but I was at over 40 VPIP the other night and people were still folding a lot preflop to me.
I also was folding some pocket pairs 2 ways out of position in the blinds because it just seems that I am not getting someone's whole stack that often. sometimes I will limp pocket pairs in late position and rarely I can stack someone

thanks very much! would you say that there is still some value in 3 betting early to have an aggressive image? it seems people tend to be more careful/passive vs me. but I was at over 40 VPIP the other night and people were still folding a lot preflop to me.
I also was folding some pocket pairs 2 ways out of position in the blinds because it just seems that I am not getting someone's whole stack that often. sometimes I will limp pocket pairs in late position and rarely I can stack someone

I don't really know what you are talking about regarding this hand, but in general there is absolutely no need to build a image on 10NL. People just won't realise, and even if they would, they prolly wouldn't adjust their play.
They just know absolute hand strength and have no clue about relative handstrength (thats why most of them can't fold TP even to action against they are 100% screwed).
You should just go for value, value, value.
Ask Baluga

How often you 3b preflop depends on the other people at the table, you want to develop a strategy vs each player individually. Don't worry about developing an image.