QuadDeuces
1111 posts
Joined 09/2008
Very good discussion. I especially liked JJ hand and discussion about putting our opponent to difficult decisions while avoiding difficult decisions for ourselves.
As regard 3Bet pots and set-mining: Let's not get locked into whether the Villain has the set-mining odds to call the 3Bet or not as it actually depends as much on reads on Hero tendencies in 3B pots.
A lot of players at NL25 will habitually check 3B pots to the River to irrationally avoid being stacked by AA. This gives Villain 20% odds to hit their set by the River and not just the 11.8% odds of hitting the flop. This permits profitable set-mining in 3Bet pots as call amount is usually way less than 20% of stack. Plus many players will fold to a shove in a 3B pot, again fearing AA.
If Hero habitually plays 3B pots passively such that Villain will often get to see river cheaply beyond pre-flop call than Villain has 20% chance of hitting set by River and has odds to call pre-flop raise for less than 20% of stack. eg Villain raises to $1 and Hero in Blinds raises to $4 = $3 for Villain to call but $3 is greater than 10% but way less than 20% if Hero will check to the River.
Hence it would be wrong for Villain to call if Hero will bet 3B pot aggressively because Villain has only 11.8% chance of hitting set or better on flop but correct for Villain to call if Hero will check to the River as Villain has 20% chance of hitting set or better by River.
Plus if hero will fold to shove after checking to the River than Villain also has fold equity to call pre-flop and then shove many post-flops either with set or as bluff.
In QQ hand what would our Hero have done if Villain shoved River? I bet he would have folded (despite pot odds) based on what we saw in video of his inclination to fold out of fear. Therefore Villain did not make an incorrect call with 55 but rather he made the mistake of checking behind Hero instead of shoving either the Turn or the River.
Note: I am not saying it is correct to call 3Bets with 55. I am saying that against known timid players at NL25 you can call with any two cards and push them off everything other than AA much of the time.
Posted about 4 years ago
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Sounded Simple
1009 posts
Joined 03/2008
I think you might be a tad optimistic about the EV of calling 3-bets here. For example we are counting on players to give us two free cards to hit a set and assume that they stack off their over pair on the river (which they need to do for it to be profitable to setmine)
At the same time we can push them off these same overpairs when we miss?
(Of course this assumes 100bb, deeper things can change)
If you have a stone cold read on how someone plays 3bet pots then you can start to peel in position, that read is quite hard to get and is probably in excess of what most uNL players need to be working on.
Perhaps that's what you are referring to here, that they will never barrel without TPTK+ and you can play the turn pretty perfect?
Normally I hate generic rules (a la 2+2) but one that I think is fair is dont fold overpairs in 3bet pots (exceptional circumstances multiway, against ubernits or ridiculous boards aside). If any uNL players are routinely making big folds with low SPRs or getting to SD with overpairs without stacking TP then you probably have a leak. Maximise value with these hands as players will often try to play marginal hands to "crack" you and will get sucked in with 99 on a 762 flop.
In any case, I think a discussion on how to defend 3-bet pots at 25NL might be like polishing the brass on the Titanic, there are far bigger things to attend to.
Missing value is spots is by far the most common and the most expensive problem uNL players face.
Posted about 4 years ago
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QuadDeuces
1111 posts
Joined 09/2008
Perhaps that's what you are referring to here, that they will never barrel without TPTK+ and you can play the turn pretty perfect?
Missing value is spots is by far the most common and the most expensive problem uNL players face.
Yep, I very much agree. It's against the guys who fail to get value that you can play the Turn pretty perfect.
Posted about 4 years ago
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Sounded Simple
1009 posts
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DanhBai
471 posts
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13Strike
198 posts
Joined 07/2012
Time Link to 00:10:06
Hey guys,
Villain range on the turn seems interesting: the min 3bet pre seems to me to be either very strong or medium strength, as it is not uncommon for players to have the thought process ' I've got a big hand and I know I should raise, but not too much as they might fold' or 'I have a medium strength and I should raise to fold out the opp'.
I would lead to the strong side e.g. AA KK QQ only because of the bet on the turn is finally normalish, Could well be AK with the flush draw. Interesting situation as the coach points out, it could LAO be KQ with the draw. Find myself in situation like this where I'm way ahead or crushed with very little in-between. Cheers for the interesting discussion.
Posted 11 months ago
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13Strike
198 posts
Joined 07/2012