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if he just shove/folds I'd 2x him and fold vs a shove. if he has more opportunities like calling I'd jam pre

are we really discussing about folding 99 bvb 12bb effective here? this thread should be considered for deletion

I don't think you are getting the point. it's not about 99 per see, but what we do with xx vs his range xx-xx and he shoves giving just marginal odds to call. It could be 12bb it could be 24bb

... you need to ask yourself why your playing mtts and or poker in the first place

 

Cheers!!!!!

alexandros nobody is being hostile here.

the thing is that 99 is such a good hand that if u raise/fold it you will be massively exploited by a good tournament player just because you will be raise/folding a ton and only calling with JJ-AA

the whole point is
1) to extract value from 99
2) to make ur opponent pay if he wants to see a flop

you can raise/fold a hand like 72s because if u think he is so tight it will be massively +EV

AA-22,AKs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q4s,JTs-J5s,T9s-T6s,98s-95s,87s-85s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,AKo-A2o,KQo-K8o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o-T8o,98o,87

I got this as an unexploitable shoving range. This was from Cardrunners EV which forces me to make a lot of assumptions for your tourney which aren't accurate. Given your stated calling range. The BB is only calling 5.9% of the time. This means that 94.1% of the time he will simply fold and you will win the blinds. It is only when he calls that the equity calculation becomes relevant. The rest of the time it is pure profit. Even though you may be behind that 5.9%, you will still win 42% of those times. This means that given his range (if it is correct) you will win the blinds 94.1% of the time. You will win his stack and the blinds 2.478% of the time. You will only lose (and only half your stack at that) 2.522% of the time. This is a shove. Any of the other options will often lead to you getting it in with a much wider range far more often. You will often be flipping in these situations. Or you will just lose your 3BB raise to his shove if you fold. Neither is preferable to winning the blinds 94.1%.

So first of all i messed up in the equations , thanks BaseMetal for helping me there.
Also i ask which is the MORE +EV line here. If i am not wrong the the unexploited shove does not mean its the MORE +EV line we good take. And it was a theoretical question that if he was calling and 3betting with the SAME range what would be the more +EV. Lastly i am trying to get better asking even dumb questions, thinking that i would not have here the same treatment i get in 2+2 forums.

Hypothetically with ranges from the earlier post, the 2.5 the raise call is a bit better, 1.44bbs in total, than the raise fold line. Sadly to get a definitive answer we would also have to decide on the profitability when the BB just calls to see a flop - this is quite a lot harder, perhaps shoving the flop unless the flop had both an A and K might be reasonable to keep future decisions down. This type of play would be villain dependent, you can often narrow the called range for nitty players and use a tool like CardRunnersEv to get an answer. (I must buy that sometime)

The profitability of the pure push is fairly easy to calculate, you just EV equation your best guess at the BB calling range, if this is better than 1.44, it is the best we know so far (in practice we would have to guess at whether the call see a flop part from above is +EV to us or -ve, or do a laborious calc, or get CardRunnersEV)

With 99 SB vs BB and 12bbs I think the induce approach is my default, I am willing to push sometimes, and very occasionally I might raise fold against some weak, nitty types.

crucial question, are there antes or not at this point?

crucial question, are there antes or not at this point?

Good point, with 6+ players my default easily moves toward the push and the raise fold line would then only be due to a misclick.

OK, I guess maybe I was not reading carefully enough to really get the point of this, my bad. However, as I have understood Tournament strategy isn't it even more important to not lose chips than it is to pick them up? If so why open the door to the raise fold line, when the push seems so clearly profitable. It also seems to open the door to a lot of bluffs,etc. If you raise, see a flop and it comes AQ5 and he shoves - what now?

OK, I guess maybe I was not reading carefully enough to really get the point of this, my bad. However, as I have understood Tournament strategy isn't it even more important to not lose chips than it is to pick them up? If so why open the door to the raise fold line, when the push seems so clearly profitable. It also seems to open the door to a lot of bluffs,etc. If you raise, see a flop and it comes AQ5 and he shoves - what now?

because villain is described as a good player and a good player doesn't flat 12bb deep.

so if u htink he is aggressive enough to shove a lot then u induce him with raising. if u htink he is just passive then shoving is better

OK. Villain is actually described as a fair player not good. Also villain is described as only shoving AJ+, TT+. Why does 99 ever want to induce this range to shove?

OK, I guess maybe I was not reading carefully enough to really get the point of this, my bad. However, as I have understood Tournament strategy isn't it even more important to not lose chips than it is to pick them up? If so why open the door to the raise fold line, when the push seems so clearly profitable. It also seems to open the door to a lot of bluffs,etc. If you raise, see a flop and it comes AQ5 and he shoves - what now?

Until near the FT it is fine to play basically chip ev, ie cash equivalent so it's fine to risk it early so long as it will pay chip wise. There are dynamics like your overall 'edge' but they still don't affect the value very much early on.
On this SB vs BB, sometimes you can tell that the BB is a predictable very nitty player and oddly this will allow you to get a better return by taking a raise/fold line with 12bbs (without antes) but the strength of your hand also matters and here 99 is pretty good so it would need a very unusual and accurate read of a nit to make it better folding than min-raise calling or shoving. Having hands as good as 99 in your raise line allows you to raise rubbish vs some regs to allow steals - it will all depend on the type of opponent. I am not an expert but I would suggest thinking through spots like these and how to play them against various types. The push is unexploitable but try to find the perfect line against a player. Against regs you play often you may also have to think about the effect on future hand ranges and how predictable you are.

If you raise, see a flop and it comes AQ5 and he shoves - what now?

If the player is nitty you can narrow their range down so it becomes a pot odds question and you won't have much equity. Your equity really does improve a lot if they aren't nitty and just defend often - it depends.

Nice answer. Yeah until your post I wasn't really getting what you guys were after. Very well explained.