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JJ 45bb against NIT

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Aus_husky610

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3 posts
Joined 01/2012

I SHould find a fold here? I have 1.2K hands on hime at 14/11

Poker Stars $2.28+$0.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 1784014
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: t4565 152.17 BBs
Hero (CO): t1290 43 BBs
BTN: t1635 54.50 BBs
SB: t745 24.83 BBs
BB: t1112 37.07 BBs
UTG: t4545 151.50 BBs
UTG+1: t1979 65.97 BBs
MP1: t1649 54.97 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is CO with J Diamond J Club
2 folds, MP1 calls t30, MP2 raises to t120, Hero calls t120, 3 folds, MP1 calls t90

Flop: (t405) 9 Club 9 Spade 5 Diamond (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets t300, Hero raises to t1170 all in, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t870

Turn: (t2745) 4 Club (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t2745) T Club (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t2745

Posted 12 months ago

JSTOCK

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18 posts
Joined 02/2012

Judging by the fact that you've posted the hand, I assume you lost.

We strive to be action and not results oriented, however, so for me, this is a shove all day. If he hit the 9 or has an overpair good for him, onto the next one. But too often his range is over cards and smaller pairs.

BaseMetal usually drops in with the math side of things so wait for his input

Posted 12 months ago

rrumsey

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5421 posts
Joined 06/2010

What's his 3 bet %? What range do you put him on 3 betting then bet calling the flop?

Posted 12 months ago

corkeye

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852 posts
Joined 08/2009

BaseMetal

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2050 posts
Joined 01/2010

From the stack sizes I think the preflop decision is quite crucial. When I put in 10% of your stack I am usually expecting to have to get it allin at some point. I don't really like the call preflop I would prefer to raise or fold, there is nearly a 50% chance of at least one overcard to a J on the flop and this makes the hand difficult to play against an early raise.
As played the raiser is pretty tight and from MP2 can expect a range something like:
MP2: 77+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo
the flop is very good for JJ.
MP1 is not looking strong and although 3 players still in the hand a c-bet is still likely from MP2 so this does not narrow the range much, maybe to something like (88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+,KQo)

You do not have much fold equity, for ease say zero, so the EV of the bet is
EV = (your equity) * (final pot) - cost of bet
EV = (eq * 2745) - 1170.
The break even point is where the EV is zero (well ignoring any icm) and so:
0 = (eq * 2745) - 1170
or
eq = 1170/2745 = 43%
So the required equity is say 43 to 44%, not much adjustment needed for icm if not a FT and JJ is well ahead of this at this stage.

This depends on what ranges you put on MP2 but I would think even though 14/11 is reasonably tight this player does have a treble stack and so should really be wider than normal.

I would question the preflop part of the hand mostly.

BaseMetal usually drops in with the math side of things so wait for his input


Shamed into posting Wink
I hope I got the maths bit right, anyway always question the assumptions in the maths as it is really easy to think that an answer proves the best course - usually it only helps to illuminate the thinking.

Posted 12 months ago

BaseMetal

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2050 posts
Joined 01/2010

always question the assumptions


I think I did simplify it far too much and you do have some fold equity, probabaly about 20 to 25% folds, so the final range for the allin call is something like (99+,AQs+,A9s,KQs,AQo+), you still have plenty enough of equity for the push to be very easily +ev imo. You have more than the required 43-44% against this range and will have already gained some value from any of the folds.

Posted 12 months ago

rrumsey

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5421 posts
Joined 06/2010

I think the assumption on the cbet is so dependant on the villain. maybe doing a quick shark scope or OPR could help us out while we use the time bank here

Posted 12 months ago

Fargoi5

Avatar for Fargoi5

88 posts
Joined 06/2011

This is a bad situation to flat a 3bet. Our JJ is unlikely to improve by seeing a flop.

I played a hand in a wsop tournament that was similar to this. I had QQ. UTG1 check raised. Worried about aces or kings I flatted. The flop came out small and UTG1 led out with a large bet. I thought what could he have but aces or kings and threw my QQ away. A fish that had limped along jammed with 99's and to my shock UTG1 called and flipped over AK. Basically I would reraise preflop and reevaluate based on villians actions.

Posted 11 months ago

Schweig

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1194 posts
Joined 10/2008

It's not a 3-bet guys, it's an iso of a limper.

Posted 11 months ago

rrumsey

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5421 posts
Joined 06/2010

im a hem newb, i assume there is a stat for that. I mean his iso of a limper and his 3 betting range here are probably not too different, the iso may be wider even

Posted 11 months ago




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