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Call off stack with ATs on the bubble??

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JWM1270

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16 posts
Joined 02/2012

I played in day 2 of the Venetian Deepstack tourney yesterday and I'd like some feedback on the following hand that came up please:

966 Total Entries. 90 players paid. 99 players left at this point.

I have 61,000 in chips. The chip average was 125,000. The villian started the hand with 80,000 in chips.

Blinds are 2000-4000, 500 ante.

I had played with the villain on the previous day and found him to be on the loose side while my image to him was much more on the tight side.

It folded around to me on the button and I have ATs (hearts). I raise to 10,000. The small blind folds and the villain in the big blind goes all in.

So now there is 72,000 effective in the pot and it costs me the rest of my stack of 51,000 to call so I'm getting 1.41 to 1 but it's for my tournament.

I've read that you should rarely fold to a reraise with 20 big blinds or less. At the same time I can't think of a hand that he would shove with that I'm ahead of except some type of KQ, KJ type hand. I don't think he sends it with a weaker ace although I suppose it's very possible. Against his range I'm probably getting the right price. Because I had a tighter image I felt like he was giving me more respect than some of the other players so I put him on a real hand.

What's the best play here??? Fold and work with my 12+ bb's left or call and hope to double up???? Thank you.

Posted 12 months ago

BaseMetal

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2050 posts
Joined 01/2010

I think you have a little more pot odds, you need to call ~ 50500 to win a pot of about 126000, so you for chip equity it is 50500/126000 = ~40%.
There are still 9 payers to go before this bubble bursts, you have a small stack but a double up gives you a reasonable chance of maybe going deep and if you can easily write off the buyin it's seems it's much better to aim for a deep run. I would say that calling against a player when you have 35+% against his range is not going to be very -ve ev and if you are 45%+ it makes it a definite call.
I am a little surpised at the range you are giving the BB as I would think there is a good chance of BB with a re-steal hand against a late opener. If you have 50%+ vs the range you give the villain it is an easy call, 45%+ is still good in my eyes and even 40% isn't bad. If V has (66+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KJo+,QJo), which looks a pretty tight range to me, you have ~ 47% so I vouch for a call.

With antes present the initial pot is quite big even before any action (6 to 7000) so I don't think a push is bad, well better than a fold, but I would prefer the small raise and call an allin.

Posted 12 months ago

JWM1270

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16 posts
Joined 02/2012

Great analysis. I agree that I'm getting the right price against his range. Can't always wait for aces and kings. I tanked and ended up folding. He said he had pocket 9's and I semi believe him. I made the money and got knocked out in 73rd. I will admit that I really wanted to cash and get a good start to the deepstack and wsop. The next time I'm in this spot I will call and go for the deep run. Thanks a lot for the response.

Posted 12 months ago

HJD

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1008 posts
Joined 05/2010

you should probably be minraising every hand you open there or shoving. 2.5x'ing seems pretty pointless to me, especially if you're raise/folding any hands (which you probably still can do imo)

Posted 12 months ago

itsatrap

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1712 posts
Joined 07/2008

you should probably be minraising every hand you open there or shoving. 2.5x'ing seems pretty pointless to me, especially if you're raise/folding any hands (which you probably still can do imo)



I like the jam especially being close to the bubble. I'm not going to be happy if he reships or flats because SPR will make betting the flop awkward

Posted 12 months ago

FaceMyAlterEgo

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374 posts
Joined 07/2010

without the bubble situation, raise calling would certainly be best, but in this exact spot I think shoving first in is better.

Posted 12 months ago

rrumsey

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5422 posts
Joined 06/2010

what position are we folded too? shove pre most likely with that many BB i think it is close to unexploitable

Posted 12 months ago

JWM1270

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16 posts
Joined 02/2012

Thanks for all of the responses. I agree that shoving is the best play. Not many hands that I'm an overwhelming favorite against except a weaker ace. Let's see if he wants to call off 90% of his stack with 99 right before the bubble. Puts him in the tough spot, not me. Thanks again.

Posted 12 months ago

shuttle

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3333 posts
Joined 11/2008

I'd shove here. There is absolutely no reason to make it 2.5x here though, it's either a minraise or a shove or a fold here.

Posted 12 months ago




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