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STT Running Bad?

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matt9041

Avatar for matt9041

184 posts
Joined 11/2010

im currently 45$ under EV over 55 $3.50 9man SnG's.
my question is could this be a result of bad icm decisions/bad bubble play? or is this pretty standard?
ran just as bad on another site for about another 30 games.

Posted over 2 years ago

2hard4ya

Avatar for 2hard4ya

formerly capo_crimini121
220 posts
Joined 10/2009

i think this is normal since it has also happened to me already also i think 55 games is really a small sample in sng eventually it will even out as you play more gl!

Posted over 2 years ago

snarble5

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1685 posts
Joined 07/2010

I highly recommend never checking the EV line.

Posted over 2 years ago

matt9041

Avatar for matt9041

184 posts
Joined 11/2010

just wanna make sure this isnt a sign of a leak.

Posted over 2 years ago

cooper667

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275 posts
Joined 12/2008

Running above/over EV wouldn't be the result of a leak...it's just a measure of how lucky you got.

If your EV line looks like a ski slope, there may be a leak.

Posted over 2 years ago

BaseMetal

Avatar for BaseMetal

2153 posts
Joined 01/2010

The red line is a slightly better indication of your quality of play compared to the green (it should basically run parallel with the green in the long run) - it just takes a quite small chunk of the luck out of the results. You cannot control the red line/green line difference, even if you shove with 23o 1000 times your red line will just get to the long run faster.
For most people it will take about 500 games before you could tell much about your roi, at 500 you can roughly say it +ve or -ve.

The best way to tell if you are making ICM leaks is through using an ICM tool like SnGWizard.

Posted over 2 years ago

matt9041

Avatar for matt9041

184 posts
Joined 11/2010

thanks guys. guess ill just keep chugging.
grind on!
ill let you know what its like at 500. lol

Posted over 2 years ago

rrumsey

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5801 posts
Joined 06/2010

I highly recommend never checking the EV line.


this

Posted over 2 years ago

matt9041

Avatar for matt9041

184 posts
Joined 11/2010

SiQ

Avatar for SiQ

153 posts
Joined 09/2010

don't worry about EV lines. worry about reviewing your play and being happy with your decisions.

also understand that the results of 50, 100 or even 1,000 games are completely useless. the rule-of-thumb going around a while ago was 5k games was enough of a sample to be relatively confident that you were a winning/losing player but it had a lot of room for error, and 10k games was a pretty good indication of how you were doing in the games - altho even with a 10k sample you're still going to be off from your "true results" a decent amount of the time. There were a few very good winning players who played games they only had 3-4% ROI in and had 10k stretches of breakeven or worse.

Posted over 2 years ago




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