I just started playing in tournaments again after playing in cash games only for about a year. I'm having a little trouble trying to switch over from EV calculations to an ICM to figure out what plays are profitable. Can anyone step me through what calculations to do with this scenario (I don't have a hand history sorry, because I wasn't running a HUD, but I included everything meaningful in the description):
In an 8-max $4.40 tournament.
The prize structure starts at $9.45 for 65th to 72nd, $9.75 for 57th to 64th, accelerating up to a top 8 prize structure of:
8th - $52.50
7th - $75.00
6th - $105.00
5th - $150.00
4th - $225.00
3rd - $306.00
2nd - $415.50
1st - $567.00
Villian of this story gets his large river bluff called by top pair in a hand against By-Stander. Villian is in the cut-off in the very next hand, I am BU and By-Stander is SB, and when it folds to him he open shoves 60BBs, and picks up the blinds. The next hand it folds to him on the BU and he open shoves again, clearly very tilted. I'm in SB with some hand I don't remember that isn't good enough to call, and Villian gets called by By-Stander in BB for roughly half his stack. By-Stander turns over ATo, Villian turns over J5s. Villian spikes a J and By-Stander doesn't recover, growing Villians stack to 110BBs and shrinking By-Standers to 50BB.
Now this is the hand I had a question about. The tournament is down to 221 players, By-Stander limps in UTG, the rest of the table folds to Villian in SB, who shoves his 110BB stack, I'm guessing with close to 100% of his range. My stack is 90BBs, and I'm holding AJo in BB. By-Stander is still left to act behind me, and will probably call with an extended range to get back what he lost in the last hand.
Is it profitable to call, knowing that I'm ahead almost always, but rarely dominating and facing down a possible two opponents?