Yeah I generally like limp/stabbing against weaker players as well but I think this is actually a very +EV shove because of how tight I expect Jody to be calling. It's true that you are risking your tournament life on the shove but lets say Jody is calling top 20% (this is a bit light imo), we are going to pick up the pot pre-flop 80% and the other 20% when he calls, we have at least 30% equity. We're going to win the pot 86% of the time with a shove and double up 6% of those times. Limp stabbing is definitely profitable but you are letting him see a flop for free and the times where you stab and fail, you wasted 150 and gain the same you would have by shoving. I think winning the 150 and improving our stack to 1000 or more 86% of the time by shoving is probably better than improving it to 1000 60% of the time and losing another 100 on a stab the other 40% of the time. Overall a 1000 chip stack has much more utility than a 700 chip stack should your limp stab fail.
I think this calls for a full hand equity analysis, I hope you can follow all this...
Im going to make a number of assumptions
1) Jody will call our shove with 17.1% of hands. This range is equal to 33+, A2s+, A7o+, KTs+ and KQo. This is what i estimate considering ive had some history with this player.
2) When we limp jody will raise us 5% of the time. This value is equal to Jodys HUD stats and the range includes TT+, AQs+ and AQo+. In this case we will fold and have a stack size of 835 chips.
3) If Jody doesnt raise our limp, we will min bet the flop 100% and Jody will fold 60% of the time (according to the HUD stats). In this case we will end up with 1035 chips.
4) The remaining 40% of the time, Jody calls our min bet stab, we check/fold and will never win the hand (a conservative assumption). In this case we will end up on 735 chips.
Now considering we know all the stack sizes, we can plug them into http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx. This tells us our equity for each stack size. Now we can make the following calculation in order to find our equity of limp/stabbing.
5% of the time we end up on 835 chips. Here we end up with a 10.444% equity.
Of the other 95% of the time:
60% of the time we have 12.762% Equity
40% of the time we have 9.261% Equity
So assuming we never win when we min bet and get called,
EqL/S% = 11.3156
We know from SNG Wiz that:
EqP% = 11.74
EqF% = 11.03
So it would appear that pushing is indeed the best option. However,
It was wrong to assume that we would never win when called. The question is, how often do we need to win when we're called to make limp/stabbing favourable?
To work this out we just equate the equity value for pushing with our calculation and add in an extra equity sum on the LHS.
Of the 40% we're called, will will win a percentage which i'll call X. Estimating our equity when we win is hard, but lets assume that jody checks it down (what with her being so passive) so no more chips go into the pot. If we win we have a stack of 1135 and an equity of 13.899.
(0.05*10.444)+(0.95*0.6*12.762)+(0.95*0.4*9.261*(1-X))+(0.95*0.4*13.899*X) = 11.74
3.5192 - 3.1592X + 5.2816X = 3.9436
2.1224X = 0.4244
So X = 0.2
Assuming that youre going to hit a pair 32% of the time on the flop, this value of 20% for your win rate when called is not unreasonable. Ok, granted youre going to probably hit middle or bottom pair, but if you assume that:
1) Jody wont bluff you off your hand very often, and you wont get value bet very often (because she's that passive)
2) Youre only going to bet then onwards for value...
Then this figure of 20% is even more reasonable as sometimes youll be increasing your equity further by value betting, and because youll rarely be losing more equity by calling value bets. It is Jodys very nature in being very passive that allows us to make these assumptions - and this passisvity is the reason why I feel I can exploit her post flop so much with a hand such as 75o. (N/B: This is only possible due to the HUD, which is why its so goddam useful).
In conclusion, given Jodys calling range, our hand (which plays fairly well post flop), all the reasons above and MOST IMPORTANTLY, her pre AND post flop passivity, i prefer limp/stabbing to pushing.
If youre still not convinced, think about it this way. When you have a big edge over someone dont you want to play them post flop as much as possible as this is where you probably have your biggest advantage? I mean yeah youve only got 9BB to play with but this is plenty for a couple of small bets. If theyre really passive then thats even better as you can just take a cheap stab and then value bet if neccessary.
You only need to push wide into aggressive opponents who will attack your limps, bluff you off and generally discourage you from playing out of position. Feeble poker creatures do not need the same treatment.