Don't have the hand history with me, but this type of hand has been bugging me.
We are 8-handed at 20-40. MP opens to 120 and it folds to us in the SB with KK. MP has doubled up (3000), we are at starting stack (1500). I don't recall any strange or bad play from MP, so he doubled up on a standard hand (would have to review the HH again). The obvious play is to reraise, and we do so, to 325. MP calls.
Flop comes AQ4 with 2 clubs. The pot is 690 and we have 1175 left. What do we do? If we CB in my mind we are committed, since we'll bet something like 400, which means we'll have put in half our stack in the hand, so folding after being raised all-in or check folding the turn if the CB is just called seems terribad. But if we CB here this early against a normal opponent on a board like this, are we ever getting called by worse? Flush draws will fold, good aces will call, sets will call, 2 pairs will call. We may be able to fold some better hands (a weak ace? KQ?) but they're less likely than the other hands MP could hold. So I'm not so comfortable with a CB here, it seems we don't get it in good enough often enough.
On the other hand, can we really check-fold KK because an A came on the board? Seems very weak to me. We won't be against Ax all the time. But right now we are losing against AA, AK, AQ, QQ, 44, all of which are part of MP's range. MP could have smaller pairs, but you'd expect him to fold all of them against a CB here, which is the correct play for MP.
So how do we get value on this hand? How do we not value-town ourselves by committing with a CB OOP which won't be called by worse and won't fold out better? Do we prefer just shoving preflop for 13x the bet we face, and only get called by better or picking up 160 chips?
If MP was a loose player or some other type of fish, it would be an easy play either preflop or post. But against a standard player, what kind of line do we like?
