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This spot occurred earlier today and thought it was post-worthy. The original raiser was running at about a 48/6, and the bettor who flatted pre was a 35/4. At this point my stack is above average by about 1500 chips. I figure that bet sizing means he will be barreling just about any turn. FWIW, the raiser did check pretty quickly which also concerns me. What are your guys'/girls' thoughts on this spot? Maybe Vanessa and/or Luke can pop in here and shed some light!



Full Tilt Poker $32,000 Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 667074
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP1: t4402 M = 48.91
MP2: t4100 M = 45.56
CO: t3736 M = 41.51
Hero (BTN): t5265 M = 58.50
SB: t1635 M = 18.17
BB: t4895 M = 54.39
UTG: t3685 M = 40.94
UTG+1: t5100 M = 56.67
UTG+2: t5320 M = 59.11

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is BTN with T T
UTG raises to t180, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls t180, MP1 calls t180, 1 fold, CO calls t180, Hero calls t180, 2 folds

Flop: (t990) 3 7 5 (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 bets t666, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero folds

Final Pot: t990

Wow, this is def. a sticky spot to be in.

When UTG+2 flats pre, I think suited connectors (TJ through KQ) are in his range, as well as mid to lower pocket pairs. When he leads out for 3/4 pot on a scary board though, I don't think he has a made flush in this spot very often, he's probably scared of it.

So I think he most likely has a set, a over pair to the board, or maybe making a fast play with a made flush.

Only PP we are ahead of are 22,44,66,88,99, with 2's 4's and 6's beeing unlikely, although the 4's and 6's bring possible inside str8flush draws(which would also be weird to lead out)

He didn't reraise preflop which makes it unlikely he has a overpair to your TT, which skews the range of pairs down, so really the only two pair of that range we would want him to have is 88 or 99.

I think if the hand was HU, you could maybe flat call with position, but when he fires again on the turn the only way we are going to feel better about the situation is if a T comes off with the Tspade making you feel pretty sick.

With the preflop raiser left to act, and the fact you felt he checked quickly,which opens up a whole other set of variables, I think a fold in this spot is fine.

You ever think about squeezing to like 800 or 1k and folding to a shove?

You ever think about squeezing to like 800 or 1k and folding to a shove?

Pre? I def thought about squeezing but the raiser had only limped prior to this so his raise + him running at like 42/3 or whatever scared me away from that I guess

Could depend on their actual tendencies/sample size for stats/etc, but I actually think this is fine. Sure someone could lead worse here but there are still a ton of bad turn cards and when you're ahead villain quite often still has a ton of pot equity. I'd never really want to put more money in even if I did convince myself to call here, and as you mentioned, sizing + villains likely tendencies thus far make it seem like there's a reasonable chance that he can barrel here. I also think guys like this are often check/calling any bets with hands like low pairs + spade, so we can only really hope for 88x/99x and even those have >40% equity here. Fold now and don't tell anyone that you fold over pairs on the flop

Seems like this tricky spot will only get trickier on future streets. I think a laydown makes a lot of sense.

Maybe I'm giving someone too much credit, but I think anyone who leads into four others on that board has to be given a decent amount of respect for either having us now or being able to put us into a really hellish spot later. Would rather fold now with a 4200 stack in a 990 pot than in the 2300 pot on the turn if call flop and get barreled.

On the other hand, I can see how easily I can be lulled into choosing the psychologically easiest option, rather than the one that maximizes EV even if it's challenging.

So in summary, I am no help. :-)