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First post from me, but please don't be gentle :-)

Basically, I'm hoping to be enlightened on the following points with this post:
1) Is my analysis correct ? (ICM, equity, etc)
2) Does my thought process make sense?
3) How is the preflop action?

Opponent has not been very active preflop. I do not recall him showing garbage as PRF.


My notes on him:
BvB: completes 45o, c/c PSB w/ OESD. Check turn Q, c/f river K
Does not really defend BB
Overbets a lot postflop (Mostly AI)

Full Tilt Poker $5 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t60/t120 Blinds - 4 players

BB: t1125 M = 9.38
Hero (CO): t3705 M = 30.88
BTN: t2220 M = 18.50
SB: t1950 M = 16.25

Pre Flop: (t180) Hero is CO with K Q
Hero raises to t360, BTN raises to t720, 2 folds, Hero calls t360

Flop: (t1620) A 2 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t1500 all in



So.. I need to call 1500 to win 4620. So for cEV to be neutual, I just need 32,4% equity.


But what is his re-raising range actually? 99-AA, AJo+, AJs+. Against this we range have 35,5%.

So it looks like a marginal call, right?

But let's see the stacksizes and ICM value for the different scenarios:

(ICM calculated using http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx)
If I call and win:
Seat 1: BigBlind (1,125) $EV: 5,329
Seat 2: Hero (5925) $EV: 15,737
Seat 4: Villain (0) $EV: 0
Seat 6: loot101 (1,950) $EV: 8,934

If I call and lose:
Seat 1: BigBlind (1,125) $EV: 4,349
Seat 2: Hero (1485) $EV: 5,645
Seat 4: Villain (4,440) $EV: 12,775
Seat 6: loot101 (1,950) $EV: 7,231

If I fold:
Seat 1: BigBlind (1,125) $EV: 4,019
Seat 2: Hero (2,985) $EV: 9,163
Seat 4: Villain (3,120) $EV: 9,808
Seat 6: loot101 (1,950) $EV: 6,677


So our value is:
fold: $9,163
call: $15,737 * 0,35467 + 5,645*0,64533 = 5,58144179 + 3,64288785 == 9,22432964

Which leads me to think that we should call 100% of the time, even if we think the opponent is bluffing 0% of the time.

But the gained EV is so small ($0,061) that we, if we feel we have an edge, should fold anyway?

And what about the rake? The rake is $0,5. So for each time we are in this situation we gain $0,061 while paying an extra $0,5 in rake? (Does this make sense?)

And finally, am I applying ICM correctly here? I feel I'm missing something, as I do not consider the blinds vs stacksizes at all.


After writing this, and realising that the two other players were horrible, I think the correct play would have been to just fold preflop.

you can't defend against his reraise with that stack size. If you think this is a relatively tight range and he's not been active, just fold, this is exactly why, you're going to face a bet a lot on the flop and you have no money behind to ever play out a draw that KQs has value in making. If you call this pre it's to vomit- snap the nut flush draw on the flop in what isn't even an amazing spot to have to do it in, or vomit-fold for reasons mentioned (you're right, you have a very workable stack vs. fishy players on the bubble, no reason to toss your equity around here unnecessarily when you'll cash with a nice stack a high % of the time). Shoving is also better than flatting preflop, but I assume he'd have to be pretty active and folding a large % to a shove to make that better than folding with his stack here. This type of raise, on the bubble, directly behind the big stack is nearly always a huge hand, and regardless, with an effective stack of less than 20bb's OOP vs a stack that could damage us good here, we don't want to find out by taking a flop in a sticky spot here.