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This is a hypothetical question. Say we are in a live tournament about half way, the money is still a bit away. It its folded to us in the SB with 99 and a 25BB stack, the BB is a fair player with 12BB behind. If we assign him a shoving range of AJ+ and TT+, what is our plan pre-flop? Do we

a) raise to 3BB and fold to a shove? We are getting just about the odds to call even though we are behind his range.

b) raise 2x or 2.5x and fold to raise?

c) limp, seems terrible

d) shove to take away his initiative?

I think by writing this out I've answered my own question but I would like to you guys feedback.

Cheers,

I suspect you are forgetting about the equity you pick up when the BB folds so if you are getting the odds to call from a 3bb bet, even though when you call a shove you are breaking even you will be winning lots from the times BB folds (or calls if you can navigate the post flop well).
In PokerStove a range of (TT+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+) is 6.5% of the total hands, so that means that 93.5% of the time the BB is not shoving.

I think your BB shoving range is way too narrow. With 12BB he's probably shoving 44+, and suited A8+. I would raise 2.2-2.5x and call any shove personally.

12 bb is an unexploitable shove so unless you had reads you could induce any other way just push

I'd agree that BB would have a bigger shoving range, It was just for examples sake. But just for examples sake, would you still call if its neutral EV vs his range, and taken into consideration that we still have chips left to play?

Given this is live, what does "BB is a fair player" mean?

That he isn't a maniac, seems to know what he is doing.

Wouldn't be more +EV to raise fold if BB is 3betting the 6.5% and calling the same range? Because we have 40% equity against his range and if there is no antes i don't think we have the odd to call.

Wouldn't be more +EV to raise fold if BB is 3betting the 6.5% and calling the same range? Because we have 40% equity against his range and if there is no antes i don't think we have the odd to call.

It's probably more +EV to just shove.

Woulded be :
raise fold : 93.5% * 1.5 bb - 6.5% * ( 2.5bb ) 2.5bb our raise size
shove : 93.5% * 1.5 bb - 6.5% (60% * 12bb + 40% *15bb )

Did i make any mistake in the equations ?

are we really discussing about folding 99 bvb 12bb effective here? this thread should be considered for deletion

That he isn't a maniac, seems to know what he is doing.

if he seems to know what he is doing he is shoving over you a LOT if u plan on folding everything but AK,TT

unless he has a read u are the most tight player on the universe and then only shoves AA

If it is unexpoitable to shove given stacks and position and our hand it means it's plus ev regardless of how often he calls. He calls wide we are +ev against that range, he folds to exactly better we pick up enough chips when he folds it is +ev and still if he only calls better we still have odds against his calling range. If you want to raise fold 9s for 12 bb you need to ask yourself why your playing mtts and or poker in the first place and secondly what you are trying to accomplish in this spot

Woulded be :
raise fold : 93.5% * 1.5 bb - 6.5% * ( 2.5bb ) 2.5bb our raise size
shove : 93.5% * 1.5 bb - 6.5% (60% * 12bb + 40% *15bb )

Did i make any mistake in the equations ?

Mostly (I think you slipped on the shove line, and everyone seems to be talking 12bbs but the OP had BB with 12bbs behind, so really 13bbs, but I'll go with 12.
Assuming the 6.5 shove range (TT+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+) from a read of a nit - (could easily be tighter in strong icm FT conditions though), 99 has more like 42%

raise (2.5bb) fold: EVf = 0.935 * 1.5 + 0.065 (-2.5 ) = 1.4025 - 0.1625 = 1.24bbs

raise (2.5) call 9.5 extra: EVc = 0.935 * 1.5 + 0.065( our equity of the final pot - cost of calling)
final called pot = 12 + 12 = 24
cost to call 9..5
EVc = 1.4025 + 0.065 * (0.42 * 24 - 9.5 )
EVc = 1.4025 + 0.065 * (0.58) = 1.4025 + 0.0377 = 1.4402

you can also do this :
EVc = 0.935 * 1.5 + 0.065( prob win * what we win + prob loss * what we lose)
EVc = 1.4025 + 0.65(0.42 * (2.5 + 2.5 + 9.5) + 0.58 * (-9.5))
EVc = 1.4025 + 0.65(0.42 * 14.5 + 0.58 * (-9.5))
EVc = 1.4025 + 0.65(6.09 -5.51)
EVc = 1.4025 + 0.65 * 0.58

Both are the same but I prefer the first approach here. Your equity actually means 'what you would realise if you stay in the pot' (**) and so for the call part ie, 0.065 * (?), the EV of this '?' is the difference between what you realise if you stay in to what it costs to stay in.

(**) in the long run

So first of all i messed up in the equations , thanks BaseMetal for helping me there.
Also i ask which is the MORE +EV line here. If i am not wrong the the unexploited shove does not mean its the MORE +EV line we good take. And it was a theoretical question that if he was calling and 3betting with the SAME range what would be the more +EV. Lastly i am trying to get better asking even dumb questions, thinking that i would not have here the same treatment i get in 2+2 forums.