# Poker Video: Misc/Other by PygmyHero (Micro/Small Stakes)

## Tool Time: Excel for Poker Math

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### Tool Time: Excel for Poker Math by PygmyHero

DeucesCracked member teaches the use of Excel for mathematical analysis of poker statistics. He describes what information we can learn from winrates, standard deviations, and confidence intervals. He also uses Excel to analyze proper bankroll management decisions for the amateur and the pro.

Videos to help you get the most out of the DeucesCracked experience. Quick tips on tools from RSS readers to next-gen trackers and everything in-between. Good stuff IMO.

### Video Details

• Game:
• Stakes: Micro/Small Stakes
• 42 minutes long
• Posted about 5 years ago

## Comments for Tool Time: Excel for Poker Math

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#### PygmyHero

4246 posts
Joined 08/2007

SD for LHE is as you say appr 17.5 or so.. For NLHE its prob about 50.. Dont you have to take this into consideration?

Yes. I'm a LHE player and I have almost no experience with NL so I had no idea what an appropriate SD would be. I'll take your word for it.

#### jajvirta

725 posts
Joined 03/2007

Hey Sugar Nut, your formula looks correct and I got the same result using your data. I'm not really sure why this is yet. I'm going to try breaking the equation down a little bit. I really hope I didn't make a syntactical error in this video as that'd be pretty bad.

I'd guess it's the fact that he's taking more out of his bankroll than his monthly expecation and this does some funny stuff to the equation.

842 posts
Joined 03/2008

Sugar Nut

#### jajvirta

725 posts
Joined 03/2007

SD for LHE is as you say appr 17.5 or so.. For NLHE its prob about 50.. Dont you have to take this into consideration?

The spreadsheet does take this into account. Just fill in your std dev in BB/100 for the corresponding cell and you're good to go.

Or did I misunderstand your question?

#### jajvirta

725 posts
Joined 03/2007

Sugar Nut

I'm pretty sure it's the fact that you take out more than you make per month with those figures. You can't do that. :-)

In fact, you can't take out even near your monthly expecation, because that removes the resiliency from the bankroll. If you were to calculate say the classic risk of ruin for your bankroll, you'd have to calculate that from your net winrate (winrate from which any monthly expenses are reduced).

#### PygmyHero

4246 posts
Joined 08/2007

Okay Sugar Nut, I think I've solved the problem here. The part of the formula (from your spreadsheet, NOT mine) I want to look at is:

"C4-C16/C13/(C17/100)"

In words this is your win rate minus the nut divided by the big bet (big blind*2 since you play NL) divided by hands per month divided by 100.

The problem is that nut/big bet/hands/100 = 6.25, which is a larger number than your win rate of 4.7. That negative number propagates through the rest of the formula, which is why you have a negative result for bankroll requirement. This of course doesn't mean you need no money to play that game professionally, it rather means you CANNOT play that game professionally given the stakes, your win rate, and the monthly nut you input.

For the Excel geek who really wants to solve this problem I would recommend re-writing the bankroll formula to include an IF statement. Going back to my sheets format, cell B17 might read something like:

"=IF(B15/B12/(B16/100)>B3,"lol not a pro",-LN(B13)*B4^2/(2*(B3-B15/B12/(B16/100)))*B12)"

Edited to add: so jajvirta is right again. And faster than me. Your win rate just isn't high enough to support that monthly nut (if you were a pro that is).

#### PygmyHero

4246 posts
Joined 08/2007

Sugar Nut, since your sheet is laid out differently I think you'll want the formula in C18 to read:

"=IF(C16/C13/(C17/100)>C4,"lol not a pro",-LN(C14)*C5^2/(2*(C4-C16/C13/(C17/100)))*C13)"

And no worries - I get the same message if I try to enter a reasonable nut for the stakes I'm playing.

By the way, I really like using IF statements so you'll have to forgive me for being silly here. I was considering writing an IF statement into the video to look at whether or not the data showed you were 99% certain you were a winning player and then advise you to either move up or that you suck and needed to play more hands.

#### PygmyHero

4246 posts
Joined 08/2007

The spreadsheet does take this into account. Just fill in your std dev in BB/100 for the corresponding cell and you're good to go.

Or did I misunderstand your question?

jajvirta - I think he's saying I didn't recommend an appropriate SD for a NL player and we both recognize it'll be different then the 17-18 I recommended for the LHE player.

#### Medrakil

9 posts
Joined 04/2008

What Im saying is that if you have 100 000 hands that say you play 3bb/100 at 100NL 100 000 hands that say you play 3bb/100 at 100L, then you will ned 2.5k\$ bankroll for NL, and 324\$ for L just by changing the SD from 50-->17.. Is this standard?

#### Medrakil

9 posts
Joined 04/2008

I get the bankroll for NL is correct, but is 350 enough for 100L?

#### PygmyHero

4246 posts
Joined 08/2007

Medrakil, I agree that the formula shows you need just under \$2,500 to play 100 NL recreationally given the numbers you've proposed. I don't understand what you intend "L" to signify in your last two posts.

"...324\$ for L..."
"...is 350 enough for 100L?"

Sugar Nut - did everything that jajvirta and I posted make sense?

#### jrbick

10 posts
Joined 01/2008

Awesome vid tyvm for sharing this.

Looking foward to some clarification for NLHE if there needs to be any.

#### pkr_brat

797 posts
Joined 01/2008

Really intresting video i was wondering what stats i would need to make an sng 1 any ideas?

Number of hands would be Number of tourneys
Win rate would be ROI
SD in BB/100???
Uncertanity in BB/100???

#### Medrakil

9 posts
Joined 04/2008

"...324\$ for L..."
"...is 350 enough for 100L?"

NL = No Limit
L = Limit

32 posts
Joined 02/2008

Good vid.

Here are some numbers that I ran for NL people.

100NL, 4ptbb/100 winner with SD of 50ptbb/100. 100k hands played.

Risk of ruin of 2% (which I think is correct for full time pros).

A recreational BR is \$2445.

A professional BR depends entirely on your nut. Assuming a nut of 2500, your BR is \$6250 = 62BI.