3rd hand of match. Relevant mined stats: VPIP in BB is 91% (88% calling), cr flop 25%.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $101.70
BB: $98.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN/SB with Q T
Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.00) 9 8 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB raises to $9,

Calling one is fine and re-evaluating on the turn. Checking behind is ok but I think you miss out on a lot of value by doing that against such a loose player, and you do have a gushot. If he just minraises on his CRs it's not a leak to bet/call with TP+gutshot.

Another factor to consider in these situations is how he plays the turn. If he always always double barrels the turn (like a lot of them do when they donk flops or minraise them) you'll have to adjust your flop calling/betting ranges to make your life easier.

Did you call and do we see a turn card?

I wish. I spazzed out and 3bet/called it off.

Not really too sure why I'm posting this as it seems that calling is the right play.

When I was reviewing my hand it seemed pretty straightforward: totally misplayed, should have just called, got a decent made hand and a draw, no need to bluff/protect, etc....

But I spent a bit more time thinking about it. How bad is getting it in? Against range of TP+, pair+ draw combos and combo draws I'm about 42%. Which makes my EV when I get it in -$6. If he folds to my 3bet I win the pot, $19. So for the play to break even he needs to fold 6/25= 24% of the time.

So , first question is, when someone mincheckraises a flop like this, are they folding to a 3bet 24% of the time?

Second question, even if getting it in is +EV, how much more +EV is calling? The problem with calling is that, being the 3rd hand of the match, I've got no idea of his barrelling frequencies etc..., So if the turn comes any club or any str8ening card I've got a tricky decision. Villain can represent either of the two draws. And overcards aren't great either. My implied odds aren't good because my str8 outs put a 4str8 on the brd and my 2 pair outs put a 4 str8 on he brd (but without giving me the str8).

Am I over-thinking this?

So early in the match with no reads I'd much prefer calling the flop and see what he does on the turn. It gives you information early on you can use later. I'd definitely consider calling the turn as well to see if he shuts down on the river and hopefully see a showdown. That play is definitely +EV because you'll get very solid info early on on how he plays. Obviously if he triple barrels you don't get to see his cards, but that just shows that when he minraises the flop he's likely to have a strong hand and he will not slowplay it.

For some players the minraise is always 2p+, but for some it's cheap bluffs. I think by the river you'll have a good idea on what it means for him depending on his actions.

When you get it on that flop you might be way behind if he's the minraise=nuts type of donk but it's a bit too strong to just fold at the same time. 3-betting and getting it in there is just taking a stab in the dark imo. I don't see donks who minraise fold to a 3-bet on these type of flops too often.

Right, early on we just don't know enough about what his folding freq could be. What was the turn, then? We can play it hypothetically. Oh, and how many hands did you have on him in you DB?

calling is better than folding for this price, but both are certainly better than reraising.

So do you think we can fold to a larger checkraise?

What was the turn, then? We can play it hypothetically. Oh, and how many hands did you have on him in you DB?

I don't remember, wouldn't have been more than 100.

OK, so we call.


Turn pot is 24 and he bets 19.

So I assume we call again on a blank (non-club 2,3,4,5)

What about:

1. a club?

2. a 6 or 7?

3. a Q?

4. A or K?

5. J of clubs?

6. non-club J?

Definitely call, 3betting this flop just gets it vs a range that is so far ahead of you. Call the flop and reevaluate after the turn.